Oooooh goody, I feel a stats thread coming on!
Expatbrit
by metatron 15 Replies latest jw friends
Oooooh goody, I feel a stats thread coming on!
Expatbrit
baptisms for individual months should not be compared year-to-year since they are dependant on assembly schedules. only the entire year (or the entire summer) should be used.
mox
Compare this thread
http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/forum/thread.asp?id=19514&site=3
Moxy, good point about baptisms.
Concerning publisher figures I think one also must keep in mind how many week-ends a month has - four or five.
I guess, an extra weekend can create some increase.
The WTBTS can fool around with things like the 15 minute reports and emphasizing peak months while publishers can continue to fake and pad their FS reports and it really won't make much difference. The real statistics of interest are the baptisms per publisher rates. These are what most accurately predict growth and decline. And these are the figures which have seen a continuous worldwide decline since about 1995, and there is no sign of this decline going away. Even countries like Mexico and Russia are seeing this, and that's what has the WTBTS elite really worried.
I predict another four years until total publishers starts its final decline, but even now the decline in baptisms, particularly in the developed nations, must really be hurting the WTBTS cash flow. Think about it: each new baptism means a whole chunk of WTBTS books sold to the sorry soul who just bought into the publishing cult. It is possible that many new baptized persons buy more WTBTS literature for themselves in their first year than they will ever place in field service. When these baptism numbers go down, so does the total cash heading towards Brooklyn.
While the 15 minute reporting may increase some numbers for one year, it will do nothing to affect the long term trend. Indeed, it may hasten the decline if enough JWs recognize it for the statistical sleaze that it is.
The German Branch is said to having some financial problems because donations have dramatically decreased in recent months. Germany is printing for lots of countries.
But that are rumours so far. But I think that there is some truth in it since things changed because of the WTC attack and the Euro currency.