Are disfellowshipings proportionately increasing or decreasing?

by yadda yadda 2 21 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Mr. Falcon

  this is one of the strage statistics that always confused me (before I woke up of course; now the answer is obvious). They would always brag in their Kingdom Ministry and at conventions about how there's been "growth" of some number like 100,000 or whatever. But in some more serious talks they would solemnly announce how they have lost 70,000 to DFing. Soooooo..... you're growth isn't 100,000. it's only 30,000, right?

  At least be honest in your figures.

  If I have a dozen donuts and somone gave me 6 more, but I already ate 6, then I still have only a dozen donuts.
• 

  Unbrainwashed publisher1

  ..
• 

  undercover

  If I have a dozen donuts and somone gave me 6 more, but I already ate 6, then I still have only a dozen donuts.

  But the rate of donut to fat increases exponentially upon each donut consumed... What this has to do with WT figures, I dunno, but I do know if I eat 6 Krispy Kreme glazed donuts I gain more weight than the weight of the donuts consumed...

  Maybe that does correlate to how the WT does its figures. Make shit up...
• 

  Gayle

  2011-12 7,850,000 290,000 99,019

  where did you get these figures?? or were you estimating?

  thx splash,,interesting
• 

  Phizzy

  I found it interesting that there are spikes in certain years, I can understand just after the 95 generation change, but I wonder what caused the huge increase in leavers in other years ?

  Fascinating chart Splash, as only 1.5% or so of the "missing" will actually be those who died, it shows how many just walk, and the GB simply do not care !

  They have never made any real genuine effort to "reactivate" these ones, a bit of lip-service to the idea, but no real action, and at Congregation level nothing is done either, thank goodness say us faders !

  But when they go on about their "life-saving work" and yet don't give a flying fig for those who slip back in the water and drown it seems mighty strange.
• 

  james_woods

  The Borg doesn't publish their DFing numbers, so you would have to find figures for total baptisms, total pubs, and then factor in the average death rate for those years. Your results wouldn't be conclusive, but the numbers could be interesting. It doesn't feel like more DFings lately, but that could just be where I am.

  I don't see how you would determine how many were actually DFd and how many just left quietly this way.
• 

  yadda yadda 2

  Thanks Splash, that's very helpful, but as noted by James Woods, a large number of those could simply be faders who became inactive. I wonder if the Society might provide the actual annual figures of just those disfellowshipped if someone wrote to them requesting that information...probably not.

  Apart from that, its interesting that there seems to be a trend that the number of those baptised each year has been staying relatively consistent from about 1989-90 with more or less 300k being baptized annually since then, so that the number of newly baptised ones each year is becoming a proportionately smaller percentage of the annual peak publishers. The total number of publishers basically doubled from 1988 to 2012 but the annual number of newly baptised ones stayed about the same each year. This definitely shows that annual growth is stagnant compared to the increasing size of the organisation.
• 

  Splash

  Hi,

  To explain the figures a little bit more.

  Some have made the observation that the 'Left' figure could include faders. That's correct. I don't have specific figures for those df'd each year, although there was this article:

  *** w92 7/1 p. 19 par. 18 Elders, Judge With Righteousness ***

  "In recent years disfellowshippings worldwide have been approximately 1 percent of publishers"

  The chart above uses the Societies figures printed every year and is based on the peak pubs last year, plus those baptized this year, minus peak pubs this year. eg:

  Year Pk Pubs Bap'd Left

  2009-10 7,508,050 294,368 99,491

  2010-11 7,659,019 263,131 112,162

  2011-12 7,850,000 290,000 99,019

  So in 2009 there were 7,508,050 pubs.

  In 2010 another 263,131 got baptised. That means that in 2010 there should be 7,771,181 pubs.

  But in 2010 there were only 7,659,019 pubs, giving a difference of 112,162.

  I've taken this 112,162 to mean those who have left, died, or been df'd. Either way, it's 112,162 who no longer publish.

  To be more accurate we need to acknowledge that this is the nett of those reinstated minus those disfellowshipped etc.

  It's not accurate on a year by year basis (hence why I said it's 'not too far out') but applied consistently over many years it gives an indication of increase/decrease.

  Gayle - Yes, 2011-12 is an estimate which follows the trend. I didn't mean to include it but we can now see if it meets the actuals when they are released.

  There are some great charts already out there:

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/225847/1/World-map-showing-net-reduction-in-publisher-numbers

  http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/statistics.php

  Splash.
• 

  flipper

  SPLASH- very good job on making that chart up covering the years 1958 - 2012. Thanks for sharing it.

  Although it may not contain numbers of those DFed I still feel these figures are VERY revealing about trends of people getting baptized and trends of people exiting the JW's either through fading, becoming inactive, or being DFed. Which can still give a picture of what's going on as regards people exiting.

  First thing I noticed was right before 1975 there was a HUGE increase with not many people exiting, but IMMEDIATELY after 1975 expectations did not come - tons and tons of people stopped attending or going out in service. Another thing I notice is that from about 1992 there has been a huge influx of new Witnesses coming in, but compared to 1990 and before - from 1992 forward there are a hell of a lot of JW's exiting out the back door mostly in the over 100,000 range EVERY year aside from a few years . So I see a trend where yes, many JW's are getting baptized, however about a good 40 % of JW's are exiting through the back door compared with new ones coming in . So it's like bailing water out of a ship as time goes by.

  Fascinating research SLASH, thanks for sharing
• 

  james_woods

  Yes, indeed - the chart is very informative on net numbers entering and leaving the witness organization (even if it does not reveal the DF numbers).