The End of Cheap Chinese Goods-What will it Mean for You?

by fulltimestudent 55 Replies latest social current

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Some posters have suggested that "democratic" India is doing better than "authoritarian" China.

    Having to prepare for my last exam last tuesday did not allow me to answer previously, but I have now sought some hard facts, relying principally on an article by Amartya Sen, published last year (2011) in the New York Review of Books:

    Http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/may/12/quality-life-india-vs-china/?pagination=false

    May I also point out that the terms 'democracy' and 'authoritarian' are quite relative. India elects governments by popular plebiscite, but what does that mean is a high percentage of voters have little understanding of the choices they are making. Does 'democracy' automatically mean that you get better governance. Ask the ancient Athenians who were ruined by a popular vote?

    And, what does "authoritarian' mean in China? In villages, and in some urban areas there are already elections for village and town councils. That will increase and extend.

    China has one party rule, but within that party there are factions, and a increasing number of positions are filled by elections. The CPC has a membership of 83 million. That is something like one party member for less that every 20 people. Some want to see that as permitting a high level of control, which is not born out by the observations of people on the ground in China. Much more likely, this facet of Chinese governance permits a strong knowledge of what the ordinary Chinese person is thinking and what concerns them. Certainly, polling by groups like the American Pew Consulting suggest a high rate of approval for the Central government, usually over 80%. Local governments however have a lower level of approval.

    From another perspective, India was 'given' democracy by the exiting Imperialist British. The Chinese inherited 'chaos' from the western penetration and exploitation of China during the 19th Century and the subsequent collapse of the Qing government in 1911. Subsequent attempts to form a national government were made by arbitrarily appointed representatives of provinces. Dr Sun Yatsen, the first President of China was forced from office after a short while by General Yuan Shikai, who became President and stated his intention to commence a new dynasty with himself as first emperor. He failed. Chinese governance collapsed into warlordism. In the 1920's Dr Sun Yatsen formed a new government, effective only in southern China. With advice from the Soviet Union he formed a a military training college with Chiang Kai Shek in charge. Dr. Sun Yatsen, although in the beginning leaning to the United States as a model, had become disillusioned with the US at what he saw happening as the US killed so many in the Philippines Independence Movement. So Sun Yat-sen accepted more and more Soviet advice, and eventually accepted members of the new Chinese Communist Party into his own GMG (Guo min dang) more often known to westerners as the KMT.

    About this time, a decision was made that greatly affected the future of Chinese politics. Both the GMD/KMT membership and the CPC agreed that the best way forward, in view of China's weakness and inability to defend itself against Western aggression, was to seek to form a (authoritarian, if you like) government that would first unite and then to modernise and strengthen China so that it could resist the West. At some point after modernisation, a more democratic form of government would be introduced.

    Sun died in 1925 and Chiang became President. He decided to break with the Communists, which he did so by force leading to the so-called "Long March" in which the remnants of the CPC fought their way to Yanan in Shanxi Province, which became their HQ for the way against the Japanese invasion in the 1930's and against the continued attempts of Chiang Kai Shek to destroy them. A full civil war brokle out after the end of WW2, with the Communists winning major support from ordinary Chinese, leading to the formation of the PRC in 1949. Immediately in the USA, a purge broke out as the American elite attempted to fix blame for "who lost China."

    1949 gave the Chinese an opportunity to commence building a new society in China, more oriented toward ordinary people than the past governments were. However, within the CPC debate continued over the best method to build a strong, modern state. Itseems that the Party divided into two factions. There coalesced around Mao those who saw the Soviet model as offering the quickest wayto build a strong Central State by focussing on building heavy industry first. The opposing voice wanted to harness the energy of ordinary people to do something like that.

    As the "new" China grew, the debate see-sawed, with Mao eventually being side-lined by the CPC after criticism by Liu Shaoqi. In response Mao encouraged the so-called "cultural revolution" which brought China to a stand-still. Only after the death of Mao could the process of re-building re-commence. Which occurred under Deng Xiaoping, resulting in the strong China that we see now.

    At what point, and in what form the present Administration will seek to implement some form of government that permits greater input by the governed, remains obscure. But published articles seem to indicate that pressure builds for that.

    OK! I've typed more than I intended, so I'll post the China-India stats separately.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    From Amartya Sen's statistics cited in my previous post. He says he drew mainly on World bank and UN statistics.

    Life expectancy at birth:

    China - 73.5 years India - 64.4

    Infant mortality rate:

    China - 17/1000 India - 50/1000

    Infant Mortality (Age 1-5)

    China - 19/1000 India - 66/1000

    Maternal mortality:

    China - 38/1000,000 India - 230/100,000

    Mean Years of schooling:

    China - 7.5 years India - 4.4 years

    Literacy rate:

    China - 94% India - 74%

    Female Literacy (ages 15-24):

    China - 99% India - 80%

    Children Immunized (Triple vaccine)

    China - 97% India - 66%

    Sen also attempts an estimate as to % undernourished:

    China - A few % India - almost 50 %

  • ÁrbolesdeArabia
    ÁrbolesdeArabia

    @badseed, Mulitnational companies are starting to rethink China, there are new wage issues coming forward in 2014-2016 dealing with Minimum Wages and Health and Welfare benefits causing companies to think "Vietnam", Latin America and possibly unstable African countries. Pennies matter to greedy companies, they don't care how their products are made, just as long as the shit is made cheap!

    A friend bought me a pair of Nike shoes, I was surprised the metal parts you lace your strings through busted as I pulled my shoes tight. The plastic tip of the lace, used to push through holes, "stringing the shoes up" feel off the lace after one use! 60 Minutes Wedsday November 20th, 2012 additon dealt with cheap counterfiet goods China is great a making! Garbage products made to break!

  • Satanus
    Satanus

    Fts

    I wasn't speaking so much about the wellbeing of people in india, compared to those in china. I was suggesting more along the line that india has a lot of potential for productivity. It's present social state isn't an accurate reflection of what the people are capable of. They are highly creative. Capital investments in that could pay back well.

    A person needs to look at its historical context. It's infrastructures took hits from both the british occupation and the muslim encroachment, before that. The muslim one was worse than the british. The british did make some positive contributions.

    S

  • ÁrbolesdeArabia
    ÁrbolesdeArabia

    St, you are correct with your assessment with India. The West needs to invest in their economy to keep China at bay. The Indian people are not especially big on China, their values differ so greatly from the Chinese methods of doing business at all cost.

    One JW poster mentioned "the elephant and the dragon" in a private mesage and it was worth the read. The Indians could have used a "Deng Xiaoping" on their side, instead the endless beurcratic nightmares which keep India stalled, are compared with China's ability to steal what they need and move forward at the cost of their population.

    Satanus, Mao had this weird idea of collecting anything made of steel (bikes, cars, fences, tractors, trucks, ect...) and smelting them down to sell onto the "open market" at a loss, to demonstrate how powerful China was! Deng Xiao Ping is respected for his efforts of paying Western Companies to build in China, use anything they need at the cost of others, to bring China into the 21st Century. Do read the book if you get a chance, it's better than some three month class at University.

  • Satanus
    Satanus

    Arbo

    Thanks for the book recommendation. Gonna look it up.

    S

  • Satanus
    Satanus

    Here is a speach by the author http://fora.tv/2007/07/24/Robyn_Meredith_Elephant_and_the_Dragon

    She says china is not as strong as it seems. India is stronger than it seems. India's greatest asset is it's people. I would add that indians are surprisingly intelligent and creative, w strong roots. Chinese are more like followers, cogs in the machine. And so, if cenral control breaks down, somehow, break down could come easily.

    S

  • shamus100
    shamus100

    It's quite sad to see that some (arguably) arrogant Americans and Canadians have the audacity to bitch about cheap Chinese goods and blame China for it. The unfortunate truth is that there is huge demand in North America and other first-world nations for this cheap garbage. The blame lies within your country boundaries, not China.

    If current trends continue, most sweatshops will move to Cambodia (which already has a very large number) and Bangladesh. India is prospering, Vietnam is getting more expensive, and when this happens the factories slowly but inevitably move to poorer nations.

    Although the working conditions are terrible the word on the street is not buying these goods causes more harm than good. These people depend on those sweatshop jobs to feed their families.

    It's a catch-22.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Thank you Satanus, for pointing out your intent in your previous post. My personal belief is that all humans have 'potential.' And, I wish that I could feel confident that all will attain a good life in the not too distant future. In spite of a fairly common belief, that some 'races' (a stupid term) have superior intelligence (or, some other hard to define quality) - I believe that humans from all over the earth are similar.

    There may be differences in intelligence within a community, as its rather common to hear the expression that someone is either above or below 'average' intelligence. If that were true, what factors would be involved in making a person above or below 'average' intelligence?

    May I illustrate what I have come to appreciate. A 'people' that I have focussed a lot of my attention on, in my studies' are what I like to call (for lack of a better term) "the steppe people." They have received little attention from western scholars until recently, although Soviet scholars did do a lot of archeological research. Who are they? They were (and are) the 'hunter-gatherer' people who lived on the steppes between the north of the Black sea and the area to the north of Korea and in what is now called Central Asia.

    At some time in the past, humans migrated across Asia and settled in that area. From there, some migrated (it is thought) across the Bering Strait and became the progenitors of the native peoples of North, Central and South America. There was likely another (separate) migration path around the coastlines of Asia. Before history, they may have intermixed along the coast of China and Japan. As our skills grow sharper in discerning history through genetics, we may be able to work out some certaintities of how and when this happened. It seems clear that Japanese people have about a 30% affinity with Mongolians who can be classed as being part of the steppe people. It seems that modern Koreans are also related to the Steppe people, and that the ancient 'Korean' kingdoms were formed by Steppe people moving into the area and 'taking over.'

    It is clearly identified in early Chinese History that the Steppe people were a constant thorn in the side of the agricultural states. Likely the first Emperor's people, the Qin, were a fringe group of the Steppe people and were often constantly at war with other groups of Steppe people, whom the proto-Chinese called the Xiong Nu and the Xianbei. Some moved on into what is now Central Asia and Afghanistan. In proto-China, the death of the first (Qin) Emperor, sparked a grab for power in the proto-Chinese states that was won by the Han people and for another 300 years (approx) the Han empire controlled large segments of East Asia (including at times, proto-Korea) and reaching into the West to China's modern Xinjiang province. When the Han empire collapsed the vacuum was filled in the north of China by various tribes of Steppe people. The next dynasty in China, was the Sui-Tang from 581-907 with strong Central Asian connections. Their collapse led to chaotic political strife until the Song dynasty emerged. They succumbed to the Mongols, as did Korea and most of central Asia, Southern and central Russia and they banged on the doors of Europe. Their collapse led to (another local) dynasty, called the Ming. The Ming collapse in the 1640's led to a 'takeover' by the Manchu, certainly a group of Steppe people. Their collapse in 1911 after some centuries of European challenge led to what we can call modern China. But let's look at the Steppe people's influence on modern Europe.

    Over in the west, some Steppe people at least, were likely the people, from whom Cyrus sprang. The Macedonians may also have originally been Steppe people. The Iranian (Persian) Empire that Alexander the Great conquered, was likely from the Steppe people. The Iranian Empire stretched down into what is now Pakistan. High caste Indians may be descended from them or from a later Iranian people that moved south to India. Alexander the Great's Empire also stretched to the border regions of modern India. During the time of the Seleucid Empire, Afghanistan became a Greek Kingdom and we can trace some fusion between Greek ideas and Buddhism) I suggest that the idea of a saviour in Second Temple Judaism is essentially Greek in origin.

    Steppe people also started moving into the Roman Empire (known as the Huns) and eventually caused the collapse of the Western Empire. In that era the Huns moved into what is now modern France and Germany and became the rulers of those countries. Their early political systems bear resemblance to what we know of Steppe people political organisation. (See Christopher Beckwith's, Empires of the Silk Road).

    I've spent a lot of time on this, because I wanted to show how 'mixed' the world really is, and the likely foolishness of talking in terms of racial stereotypes. So today, to talk of 'chinese' people, (whom some sloppy journalists suggest are the 'han' race) is to speak of, not a single ethnic group, but a wide assortment of peoples who came to accept 'Chinese' civilisation. And, there is a similar story in India. Likely at least 3 major migrations. Also, unlike China, which even at the times when dynasties collapsed, remained united around their concept of what constituted 'civilisation,' India was seldom such a political union, unless forced into union by outside invasion.

    ----------------------------------------------------------

    ps: If I say that 'civil rights' abuses are worse in India than China - would you believe me?

  • Satanus
    Satanus

    'ps: If I say that 'civil rights' abuses are worse in India than China - would you believe me?'

    You obviously know more about those countries than i do. Sure, i would.

    Human migration is something that have been interested, as well. In 2011, national geographic w ibm published a migration chart, based on huge genetic studies from a 6 yr period, 2005 to 2011. The basic early human migration route was out of africa along the southern arabian peninsula and into india. From india, it went to china. Also, from india, it went north into europe and back into egypt. Here is the chart http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/attachment/35881.wss?fileId=ATTACH_FILE2&fileName=Geno%20Project%20Human%20Migration%20Map_print.jpg

    Or http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/photo/35881.wss

    S

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