I was commenting in another thread this morning and saw speculation that the Conti verdict will hasten the WTS' decline, beyond just the money they may have to pay in that case itself. I have seen this mentioned a number of times and it got me thinking and doing a bit of research. I think the speculation and hope is that it will give rise to similar lawsuits which will meet with similar success. However, I feel this may be overly optimistic, and wanted to see what you all think. My speculation is dealing with the US only.
First of all, just for the sake of comparison, the total cost to the Catholic Church for sexual abuse cases has been about $2 Billion according to the NY Times. (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/roman_catholic_church_sex_abuse_cases/index.html). I think this is just referring to the United States. Another study claims it's about $3.2 Billion. http://www.bishop-accountability.org/settlements/#largest_settlements. Granted, whatever number is accurate, it could still increase. Lets say that the number eventually reaches $4B. Now, the WTS in the United States is a little under 2% of the size of the R.C.C. Statistically speaking, if the ratio of abuse and lawsuits is eqivalent, that would mean about $80 Million in settlements for the WTS. Even if they ended up paying 5% of what the Catholic Church has, which would mean it did proportionally worse, that would be $200M all told. Not cheap, but merely the cost of a couple of buildings from the Brooklyn portfolio. Or put another way, interest on one year's donations in a average year in the hedge fund game.
Aside from statistics, why is there reason to think sexual abuse will not seriously injure the WTS in light of possibly paying $11M in the Conti case? Well, I don't see a host of additional victims waiting in the woodwork to come out if this verdict is upheld. People and lawyers alike have known for years that you can sue churches for sexual abuse, and I imagine that those inclined to do so have already filed their suits. Of course, there will be additional cases, even from years ago as victims first come to grips with their abuse and bring the molestation into the light of day. Also a victim leaving the WTS might prompt him to file suit, since of course one is not free to do so while in good standing in the congregation. However, I don't see all such plaintiffs meeting with similar success. First, the cases would probably have to involve abuse from 10-15+ years ago. Even if the WTS's policy is not morally improved, I think it's legally improved in order to shield the WTS from liability in more recent years, just as the Catholic Church has changed their procedures for legal reasons.
Further, everything about the Conti case made her a perfect plaintiff. She is young, likeable and well-spoken. This is the kind of person juries like to give a lot of money to. She was abused by someone who had abused before, is an admitted abuser, and the elders knew about it. Every other case is not going to be so perfect. Some might be he said/she said cases where the abuser denies it and there is really no other evidence. Some might be cases where the elders didn't know anything until after the fact. Some might be cases where the elders didn't follow the WTS protocol, which would probably insulate the WTS from liability. And of course, some plaintiffs won't be as likeable as Candace. If you look at Catholic Church verdicts/settlements, the average per victim is in the hundreds of thousands, not millions. (http://www.bishop-accountability.org/settlements/#largest_settlements). We really have to admit that not all juries are going to be as favorable as the one in Oakland. Not to mention the fact that some juries might agree there is abuse, but not want to blame the national organization for a rank-and-file member's abuse. In every case, in order to recover from the WTS the plaintiff has to prove, not only that there was abuse, but that if not for the WTS' policy or specific action in that case, the abuse would not have happened to the victim. This is a problem that the Catholic plaintiffs don't have to deal with, since usually the molester is a paid employee of the Church, which makes it a lot easier to trace blame up the ladder. My bottom line is that I expect the total price tag of Conti and similar cases to be at worst, $80-200 Million. Money they'd rather keep their paws on, but relatively speaking, not a huge deal.