LEAVING_QUIETLY: I can say that I've seen studies come and go, and only a very small number have made it to baptism. I can think of three in the past five years: two quit attending shortly thereafter, and one of those two was recently DF'd. The third one is the only one still in. We had one fellow become an unbaptized publisher, but then shortly thereafter stop attending, saying he had doubts.
That's the same scenario I see here locally. One or two BS that occasionally attend. This is a demographically diverse area. Some affluent, middle class neighboorhoods, and some blue collar, to almost rural territory.
There was one family, quite affluent, one kid in a good school and the kid was the family member with real interest in religion. Mom worked with a JW in the Cong. Family was attending Sundays for quite some time, then that faded, then just Memorial the past two years. Don't know if they made it last night or not. I suspect son got to point of college and family didn't like the WT view. Son may have also gotten "educated" about the Org from searching online (jwfacts, etc). Father was least interested, and astute businessman. Wouldn't be surprised if his circle of friends helped open his eyes.
FALL IN INTEREST? In the USA -- Over 60,000 less attending in 2012 than in 2011. Anxious to see the 2013 attendance figures.
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