Mathematical equation for working out witness divorce rate using the national average.

joe134cd

Hi Folks. I have noticed that there is a lot of speculation on how well witness perform in marriage. There is a simple equation that can be used as a guide to work this out. The following workings come from http:www.divorcestatistics.org/ . Unfortunately the latest figures they had for the USA were to 2010. Although old they do give the general idea.

Divorce statistics for 2010 in america were.

872000 divorces in america in a national population of 244122529.

So if this is what it was nationally what would that figure represent if it was in a population of 100 people. So in other words how many divorces would there have to be in a congregation of 100 people (we will say 80publishers. Accounting for all the babies and young children who arnt publishers) if it was the same as the general population. Below are my workings.

Divorce rate / Population x 100 = The amount divorced per 100 people (or for those mathematically inclined. Displayed as a %) in the USA during 2010

872000 / 244122529 x 100 = 0.35719767592609

So in other words for every 100 Americans in 2010 was represented by one third of one divorce. This is impossible to get just as you cannot get a third of a person. This number has to be multiplied (by the number of years) until we can get to 1 complete divorce.

Amount divorced per 100 people x Time taken to get to a complete divorce = A complete divorce

0.35719767592609 x 3 years = 1.07159302777827

So in other words what I am trying to say here is. If a congregation of 100 people (could be represented by 80 publishers ???)was having 1 couple divorce every 3 years they would be at the national average. Any less of more would be, better or worse. When I thought back over the last couple of decades of the ones I had seen divorced it was nearly 200% higher than the national average. If some one would like to work out the figures over a number of years please feel free to do so. I would also like to thank Mr JWFacts as it was through him that gave me this idea. I hope that I have explained this clearly, as I am not very good and relaying information.

finally awake

A single congregation isn't a large enough sample size. The congregation I attended had no divorces at all since 1999, and probably not even before that.

blondie

Remember the WTS does not count it as a jw divorce if the divorce happened after they were da'd or df'd.

Other factors--community view of divorce (varies from country to country, region to region)

Many jws in this area separate and live in different locations....not a divorce but same result.

Or what about jws that live under the same roof but sleep in separate rooms and do not talk to each other.

MMXIV

Hi joe134cd,

I think your equation is sound but again we do need a much larger poole. I would also say with some level of confidence that there is virtually no divorce among witnesses as the following divorces do not count towards witness divorces:

1) if one of the marriage partners is an unbeliever then the divorce must be the fault of the unbeliever as they are not applying the bible's divine advice on how to make a marriage work.

2) if one partner falls away from the true religion then they no longer have God's favour and will not succeed in the marriage

3) if one partner is a CO and he runs off with a younger sister then this matter is confidential and should not be counted

4) if the wife leaves her husband and he is an elder, then no matter what the reason (incompatability or abuse) she is not respecting his God given headship. If she had submitted to him then the marriage would be fine.

5) if a marriage fails between two young witnesses who only got married because they couldn't keep their hands off each other and had to wed before a wrong doing was committed. This obviously doesn't count as they didn't get married for the right motives

I may have missed some further categories

mmxiv

scotoma

The divorce rate is about the same for JW's as the general population.

I was sitting at a Watchtower study on marriage where they were basically bragging about the power of "God's Word" to hold marriages together.

I got bored and started listing in the margins every wedding I had been to in the previous 40 years. Witnesses get to go to a lot of weddings.

I listed a little over 50 weddings. Then I crossed out all those that were no longer married. Almost exactly half were no longer together.

A small but unsurprising survey.

The biggest factor is how two personalities get along after the sexual heat is off. Opposites attract but they don't last. The other extreme where two people are very similar doesn't work because there often isn't enough passion. That leaves a middle area where the people are enough alike to get along and different enough to generate some heat.

Marriage really is a 50/50 proposition. Half work well enough and half fail.

LoisLane looking for Superman

Interesting thread...with interesting comments. Now that I am out, and divorced myself, I look back and look for clues, of other couples, where you would swear that couple would never get a divorce. Why look. The wife always has a smile plastered on her face, at all times. Why look, they hold hands during prayer (edited to add...that The Watchtower has changed that. It is now a giant no-no to hold hands during prayer). I don't even like to look back to how I was. It is wonderful to be free and not have to pretend anymore. I wish more JW's would take the plunge, get divorced and get on with the rest of your life. It is wonderful to be happy again.

Just Lois

joe134cd

Blondie:community view of divorce (varies from country to country). That is true. Thats why I gave the equation, but used america as the example, so a person can use use it for their own country and region. I think I recall in one of the mags how the high court in Russia had done a servey and found that witnesses had a lower rate of divorce, which meant they didnt break up families. Im sort of glade they didnt put our cong under the microscope they probably would of reached different conclusion. This equation can be used as guide e.g if you know what the figure is in "X" then it makes it easier to work out in "Y". From what I have read about with divorce statistics with christians in general and through observation, and comments that I have recieved when I have mentioned this to people. I would say the divorce rate with witnesses would probably at best be the same as the national average, or at worst slightly higher than the average.

ballistic

I personally had 100% divorce rate in the JWs. ;)

skin

This is interesting because 10 years ago we had a high percentage of divorces in our congregation; all within 18 months, these were divorces were where both parties were baptized publishers. This is the way I worked out the percentage rate. There were 5 divorces and because all parties were baptized, I used the total number of married couples (25) where both members were baptized publishers in our congregation. (I’m not including marriages or divorces where a non believer is involved). In fact there are fewer divorces with a non believer involved. So 5 divorces is 20% of the 25 marriages. I remember at a book study one night back then, where an old faithful sister asked the book study elder why so many divorces were happening in the congregation. His answer was that compared to the world, this is still a very low number. I just shook my head in disbelief and the old sister brought his answer.

Even before and after that time frame, there have been divorces in this congregation and other nearby congregations. So comparing this rate with the world, the congregation percentage is not looking to good. And that is here in New Zealand.

joe134cd

skin = Funnily enough to just add another comment to the one about "the sister that brought it". I was been informed by this elder a couple of mounths ago about a person who had been DFed married a wordly girl, and is now divorced and trying to make his way back. The comment was made that "if he had never left the truth and married a witness then none of this would of happened". I just thought to myself "if only he knew". I just nodded my head and agreed with him.

Mathematical equation for working out witness divorce rate using the national average.

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