WTS admits (indirectly) decreasing in U.S. publisher ratio to population

by Gayle 14 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  steve2

  Memorial attendance has always fluctuated depending on what day of the week it is celebrated.

  True, but despite fluctuations the trend until recent years has been overwhelmingly one of increased memorial attendances year-by-year. In other words, fluctuations were primarily about the size of the annual increase in attendance rather than one of increases one year followed by decreases the next and so on.

  Of course, time will tell (as it always does!) whether the decrease in US memorial attendances this year (2013) compared with 2010 and 2011 is a one-off.
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  Apognophos

  Why are we talking about Memorial attendance in this thread? Isn't the declining publisher ratio as highlighted by Gayle more important?
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  steve2

  Oh, that is an excellent point Apognophos - my apologies for diverting the focus. You are more than welcome to re-focus the discussion on publishers - I was not aware that observations about memorial atendances would stifle more direct focus on the OP.

  However, they are linked indirectly: Along with the annual numbers of baptisms, the annual memorial attendances provide the source of newer and/or "future" publishers. As baptisms and memorial attendances slow down, it is no surprise that so too do the annual numbers of publishers.
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  Apognophos

  Yes, true, it does indicate some of the potential for future growth. Of course, if a higher than normal number of JWs were fading or DFed than in the past, then we would see a larger gap develop between publishers and Memorial attendance (representing those fringe JWs who only show up for the Memorial). And perhaps in today's increasingly secular and Internet-connected world, maybe, just maybe the conversion rate of "interested ones" attending Memorial is also going down, so that for every million attendees above the publisher count, fewer will become JWs. One can hope, anyway.

  What surprises me about Gayle's numbers is that I had thought the ratio in the U.S. was less than 200 non-JWs to a JW, not more than 200.
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  ?evrything

  Its the internet