by OwnAccord 97 Replies latest jw friends
@steve I am only familiar with the situation in germany, the netherlands and belgium. Here in the netherlands the average baptism age is relatively high compared with a lot of other countries around the world (due to our culture). Gerrit Lösch held a special talk here not that long ago in which he mentioned it. He encouraged youngsters and parents to think about getting baptised at a younger age.
yes i am looking forward to the yearbook too
The Yearbook will probably go online at jw.org before the printed copies are shipped out.
Emeth, you bring interesting alternative views to the reports of growth and/or other (e.g. decreases or stagnation).You say you are familiar with the situation in the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium. Whilst I do not have the figures on hand for the Netherlands, I have them for Germany and Belgium. I would value your comments on the following:
In 2002, baptisms in Belgium were 501 and in 2012, 396. In the intervening years, the trend was for steadily decreasing numbers of candidates for baptism. Over the same time frame - 2002 to 2012, Memorial attendance on that country decreased from 45,179 to 44,136.
A similar downward trend on the same variables was noted from 2002 to 2012 in Germany: From 2002, 3479 baptisms to 2012's 2676, a decrease of about one-fifth. Memorial attendance 2002: 273,692 to 265,407 in 2012 in Germany, a decrease of 10,285.Year-by-year, Memorial attendances flictuated in Germany, with a slight trend towards decreases.
Whilst these do not represent the full picture of the status of the Witnesses in Belgium and Germany, the numbers show that the two areas of main recruitment of new members - baptisms and Memorial attendances - are down from 10 years ago. Of interest, both countries "enjoyed" remarkably modest increases in peak publishers of 350 from 2002 to 2012 (Beligium: From 24,961 to 25,311; Germany: From 164,806 to 164,871. Such slender growth over 10 years indicates an organization whose years of clear growth in those countries are over. The patterns seen in Belgium and Germany mirror those in the Scandanavian countries and, I suspect in the Netherlands.
Emeth, your thoughtful comments would be welcome. Best, steve
@Steve the situation is not much different. Around 30,000 publishers for the last decades and on the memorial about 50,000. Its stable and healthy but not much growth to be expected anytime soon unless something happens to religion in common.
but not much growth to be expected anytime soon unless something happens to religion in common.-emeth
Yeah like babylon the great falling perhaps! Nice to see you on this thread emeth-love Kate xx
"Stories elsewhere suggest the witnesses who staff these publich ventures often sit or stand silently whilst the public ignores them."
Well, that is what the JWs are told to do at the ventures. They are instructed NOT to approach people, but to remain in the back and only respnd when people are approaching them with questions etc. So it is meant to be exactly what you state - a "silent" or "quiet" witness.
@kate or just things that make sincere believers dissapointed like for example the scandal with the bling bling bishop that is now in the news in germany. The german catholic church is scared of the new pope and public opinion, because disclosure of facts could lead to less revenues and donations and more people leaving the catholic church.
The recent video on jw.org shows that they want kids to get baptised. That's the only way of keeping things from dropping off in western lands.
I don't think there are much differences between the youth now and 20 years ago. I don't see that young ones are dropping out in droves here in UK. There will always be those that out and out reject the "truth" but they are still a minority. There are those that are 100% in and have real spiritural (i.e. WT career) goals. They are a relative minority as well. The rest are drifting along, some playing at pioneering, others working but mostly just really interested in the social scene.
I suspect the number up to no good is pretty high, but that's been par for the course for years as well. I think the level of deception is probably higher due to improved communications but they are still playing at being in and not making a decision to drop out.
The question for me is if the push to have ones baptised younger is to reduce a increased drop out rate, try and reduce bad behaviour by locking them in and the threat of being DF'ed or simply to push up the baptism figures.
@Steve the situation is not much different. Around 30,000 publishers for the last decades and on the memorial about 50,000. Its stable and healthy but not much growth to be expected anytime soon unless something happens to religion in common.
Emeth I would not want to make too much of your much more reserved use of language now compared to a few posts ago when you said you expected the results to be positive. What the numbers for those countries indicate is overall decreases in baptisms and Memorial attendance with 350 more publishers in 2012 compared to ten years earlier. The way to put this in context is to compare the growth from the decades 1982 to 1992 and from 1992 to 2002 - then it becomes quite startling the significant reduced growth.
I recall the time when the organization boasted it was the fastest growing religion on earth (early to mid-1970s), yet when growth slows down - especially in Western countries - it barely rates a mention or a very understanding spin is put on the matter. I recall also the almost gleeful announcements when Witnesses cited statistics that "proved" the churches of Christendom were in decline.
I guess the organization needs to pay heed to the advice that it is wise to be far more careful with what is said, because it has a way of coming back to bite.
BTW, between 2002 and 2011 (I do not have the figures for 2012), in the Netherlands there were decreases in peak publishers (31,070 versus 30,351), baptisms (609 versus 495) and Memorial attendances (52,550 versus 51,474). Again, that is over a nine year span of time when previous decades showed clear growth.
@Steve no the Netherlands is around 30,000 for several decades. My future outlook as i said in a previous post is indeed positive. I said;
Personally i think that numbers will increase a bit more and the growth percentages will become slightly higher the coming years. The reason is that there will come more JW Noise... the volume level will go up quite a bit over the next 2-3 years (new initiatives like carts, vans and trucks, stands and an increase of printed literature from 600 languages to 1000 languages before sept 2014).
and
even in internet penetrated countries they remain stable or even show a small growth percentage,.. the prophesized crumbling because of internet isnt going to happen. On the contrary i think the emphasize on their newly launched (sept 2012) website and other initiatives to spread the word will actually help more people to get on the wagon.
So in my opinion, we just have to wait & see how things will go the next few years. The majority of growth will come from Asia, Africa, South America but for Europe and North America i foresee a slight growth too but due to the new approach that is launched now and during the next years.
