Yearbook Chart Re-posted - Math explained. Top 7 countries account for 50% growth (page 2)

alanv

I would like to thank Dave for doing this chart. It takes a lot of time to produce something like that. Not sure why there is a mention of baptised-disfellowshipped. The chart simply deals with increase or decrease in publishers., in other words the net result or if you like the bottom line.

Westenddave

Some comments on posts

1] I included USA as Spanish country, since from many rumours circulating, the growth is in the Spanish congregations.

2] I retract my comment on the growth being baptized less Df'd. Increase/decrease in pubs is simply column A less column B: the net change.

Btw, in reply to besty: the worldwide chart is available on jw.org. Would u like a pdf emailed to u? or in excel format?

Defianttruth

So did anyone else notice the largest country on earth by population was listed with "30 other lands". lets see if I understand this. JWs are God's wheels under his throne yet their representation is so small in the worlds largest country they have to hide it in with 29 other lands. This would mean God would destroy 1/6th of the world just because these poor people have never heard of the guy. The boys in Broklyn must be really ashamed by the China part of their story.

Defianttruth

Another interesting fact. If every Indian publisher tried to reach every Indian it would take 300 million hours at 15 minutes per Indian person. So with a total of 36,000 publishers volunteering an average of 10 hours per month it would take 70 years to reach everyone once. Truly Gods Organization.

smiddy

Which all goes to prove the D2D work is ineffective , a waste of time , in this modern age .

The D2D work is a control mechanism to keep the sheep in the pen , by the self appointed slave class.

smiddy

besty

@alanv

Besty I dont think Britain will be at all pleased with 0.5% increase. It shows they cant even keep their kids in the org. Millions of hours spent knocking on doors and that is the result. It is only slightly higher than the population increase.

yes I didn't word that very well - what I meant was Britain contributed 0.5% of the global increase. You could reasonably expect a country with 2% of the publishers to contribute 2% of the increase - hence my sarcastic comment about them being pleased. Not. Strong underperform.

dozy

It amazes me that countries like the UK have any kind of increase. I would have thought by now there would be a gradual attrition ( of the order of 1% or 2% a year ) as the older ones die off & fewer "born-in" younger JWs are retained & there are hardly any new recruits. I suppose with the additional background of an increasingly secular society they would probably regard it as a good result. The population growth was 0.8% so it doesn't keep pace with that.

dropoffyourkeylee

As has been pointed out several times, the number of baptized people does not equate to the number of publishers. If all was well in JW land one would think the two numbers would be moving in the same direction, as indeed was the case up through the 90's when baptisms were numerous and growth in publishers was high. Now the situation is different and surely a source of consternation among the Witness leaders. The number of baptisms is low, and the ratio of baptisms to publishers is at or near an all time low. This is also what I have personally seen at assemblies (midwest US, English speaking) where there are typically between 1 and 6 baptized at circuit assemblies where in the past we would have seen 15 or so. But in spite of this there is still a growth in 'publishers', who may or may not be baptized, or who are inactives coaxed back into reporting time.

besty

Let me take a crack at explaining what I have tried to do with these numbers shown below.

To my mind if a country has 10% of the total global publisher numbers then it 'should' return to the Borg 10% of the annual growth in publishers. (I know there are 100 reasons why this doesn't happen). Some countries are pulling their weight, some countries are lagging and some countries are punching way above their weight.

So this is what that comparison looks like. Countries at the top of the table are doing really well. Countries at the bottom are struggling.

Lets try a few examples

Angola has 1.22% of the total publishers and therefore you could reasonably expect them to add 1.22% of 159,383 or 1949 new publishers. Instead they managed to add 7380 publishers. (7380/1949) = 3.8X Factor. Well done Angola.

Zambia has 2.08% of the total publishers and therefore you could reasonably expect them to add 2.08% of 159,383 or 3316 new publishers. Instead they managed to add 3313 publishers. (3316/3313) = 1X Factor. Well done Zambia - bang on the money.

USA has 15.17% of the total publishers and therefore you could reasonably expect them to add 15.17% of 159,383 or 24,176 new publishers. Instead they managed to add 11,573 publishers. (24,176/11,573) = 0.5X Factor, or 50% of sales target. Oh dear.

You get the idea?

Standout performers for me are:

Angola, Congo, Ghana, Ecuador, Mozambique, Phillipines, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Nigeria and Malawi. See anything? (Africa, LatAm)

Standout underperformers are:

Chile, Brazil, Australia, USA, France, Cuba, Russia, Argentina, Italy, Britain, Canada, Korea, Ukraine, Spain, Germany, Japan, Portugal, and Poland, naughty naughty Poland. (LatAm, The West)

In Europe we call them the Big 5 Nations - UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy - all in decline.

Countries in yellow mark the 1X Factor - below that and there are the strugglers.

Sorted in descending X Factor Order	2012 Ave. Pubs	2013 Ave. Pubs	2013 % of total	Expected Publisher Increase	Actual Publisher Increase	X Factor
Montserrat (P-32)	16	21	0.00%	0.4	5	11.5
Rota (K-20)	13	17	0.00%	0.4	4	11.4
Norfolk Island (P-23)	7	9	0.00%	0.2	2	10.7
30 Other Lands	27,388	34,485	0.45%	714.0	7,097	9.9
Cambodia (K-16)	546	684	0.01%	14.2	138	9.7
Kosrae (L-22)	17	21	0.00%	0.4	4	9.2
Macao (J-17)	239	283	0.00%	5.9	44	7.5
Mayotte (N-9)	101	117	0.00%	2.4	16	6.6
Mongolia (F-15)	317	366	0.00%	7.6	49	6.5
Niue (O-26)	23	26	0.00%	0.5	3	5.6
Bangladesh (J-14)	161	181	0.00%	3.7	20	5.3
Kiribati (M-24)	120	134	0.00%	2.8	14	5.0
Samoa (N-25)	450	496	0.01%	10.3	46	4.5
Nepal (H-13)	1,665	1,833	0.02%	37.9	168	4.4
South Sudan (L-7)	1,103	1,207	0.02%	25.0	104	4.2
Angola (N-6)	86,802	94,182	1.22%	1949.9	7,380	3.8
Tinian (K-20)	12	13	0.00%	0.3	1	3.7
Yap (L-19)	25	27	0.00%	0.6	2	3.6
Azerbaijan (G-9)	1,064	1,149	0.01%	23.8	85	3.6
Cook Islands (O-26)	176	190	0.00%	3.9	14	3.6
Guatemala (H-33)	33,017	35,598	0.46%	737.0	2,581	3.5
Malaysia (L-16)	4,124	4,440	0.06%	91.9	316	3.4
Rwanda (M-7)	20,604	22,152	0.29%	458.6	1,548	3.4
Saint Maarten (O-32)	311	334	0.00%	6.9	23	3.3
Kosovo (D-11)	207	222	0.00%	4.6	15	3.3
Saint Pierre and Miquelon (D-37)	14	15	0.00%	0.3	1	3.2
Uganda (L-7)	5,691	6,093	0.08%	126.1	402	3.2
Madagascar (O-9)	25,779	27,591	0.36%	571.2	1,812	3.2
Belize (H-33)	2,198	2,352	0.03%	48.7	154	3.2
Congo, Dem. Republic of (M-6)	163,349	174,687	2.27%	3616.6	11,338	3.1
Bonaire (Q-30)	103	110	0.00%	2.3	7	3.1
Belarus (E-7)	4,965	5,300	0.07%	109.7	335	3.1
Timor-Leste (N-18)	194	207	0.00%	4.3	13	3.0
Nauru (M-23)	15	16	0.00%	0.3	1	3.0
Nicaragua (H-33)	23,453	24,984	0.32%	517.3	1,531	3.0
Thailand (K-15)	3,508	3,737	0.05%	77.4	229	3.0
Montenegro (D-10)	233	248	0.00%	5.1	15	2.9
Namibia (O-5)	1,891	2,012	0.03%	41.7	121	2.9
Tahiti (M-27)	2,700	2,869	0.04%	59.4	169	2.8
Palestinian Territory (H-8)	64	68	0.00%	1.4	4	2.8
Albania (D-11)	4,635	4,923	0.06%	101.9	288	2.8
Sao Tome´ and Prncipe (M-4)	634	673	0.01%	13.9	39	2.8
Equatorial Guinea (L-5)	1,359	1,442	0.02%	29.9	83	2.8
Taiwan (J-17)	8,366	8,853	0.11%	183.3	487	2.7
Vanuatu (N-23)	492	520	0.01%	10.8	28	2.6
Guinea-Bissau (K-2)	123	130	0.00%	2.7	7	2.6
Congo, Republic of (M-5)	5,526	5,835	0.08%	120.8	309	2.6
Turkey (G-8)	2,171	2,291	0.03%	47.4	120	2.5
Burundi (M-7)	10,511	11,082	0.14%	229.4	571	2.5
Panama (J-34)	14,242	15,007	0.19%	310.7	765	2.5
India (J-12)	34,995	36,869	0.48%	763.3	1,874	2.5
Rodrigues (O-11)	38	40	0.00%	0.8	2	2.4
Bulgaria (F-7)	1,925	2,026	0.03%	41.9	101	2.4
Honduras (H-33)	20,122	21,165	0.27%	438.2	1,043	2.4
Bolivia (M-36)	21,957	23,014	0.30%	476.5	1,057	2.2
Haiti (O-28)	17,403	18,236	0.24%	377.5	833	2.2
Liechtenstein (F-4)	85	89	0.00%	1.8	4	2.2
Anguilla (O-32)	65	68	0.00%	1.4	3	2.1
Co te d\Ivoire (L-3)	8,786	9,190	0.12%	190.3	404	2.1
Tanzania (M-8)	14,478	15,137	0.20%	313.4	659	2.1
Togo (L-4)	16,612	17,348	0.23%	359.2	736	2.0
Sri Lanka (L-13)	5,132	5,359	0.07%	110.9	227	2.0
American Samoa (N-26)	204	213	0.00%	4.4	9	2.0
Saint Barth ´elemy (O-32)	23	24	0.00%	0.5	1	2.0
Aruba (Q-29)	877	915	0.01%	18.9	38	2.0
Turks and Caicos (N-29)	302	315	0.00%	6.5	13	2.0
Suriname (J-37)	2,536	2,644	0.03%	54.7	108	2.0
Costa Rica (J-34)	27,172	28,316	0.37%	586.2	1,144	2.0
Curacao (Q-30)	1,811	1,883	0.02%	39.0	72	1.8
Ghana (L-3)	109,085	113,392	1.47%	2347.6	4,307	1.8
Iceland (B-1)	356	370	0.00%	7.7	14	1.8
Ecuador (K-34)	76,587	79,566	1.03%	1647.3	2,979	1.8
Mozambique (O-7)	47,906	49,765	0.65%	1030.3	1,859	1.8
Philippines (K-18)	178,467	185,387	2.41%	3838.2	6,920	1.8
Nevis (P-32)	53	55	0.00%	1.1	2	1.8
Mexico (G-31)	749,585	777,429	10.10%	16095.5	27,844	1.7
Faroe Islands (C-2)	108	112	0.00%	2.3	4	1.7
Venezuela (J-36)	124,670	129,284	1.68%	2676.6	4,614	1.7
Gambia (K-2)	197	204	0.00%	4.2	7	1.7
Zimbabwe (O-7)	38,637	39,999	0.52%	828.1	1,362	1.6
Dominican Republic (O-29)	34,132	35,331	0.46%	731.5	1,199	1.6
French Guiana (J-37)	2,138	2,211	0.03%	45.8	73	1.6
Colombia (J-35)	152,280	157,395	2.04%	3258.6	5,115	1.6
Hong Kong (J-17)	5,262	5,435	0.07%	112.5	173	1.5
Indonesia (M-17)	22,862	23,596	0.31%	488.5	734	1.5
Israel (H-8)	1,348	1,391	0.02%	28.8	43	1.5
Peru (L-35)	110,651	114,153	1.48%	2363.4	3,502	1.5
Chad (K-6)	609	628	0.01%	13.0	19	1.5
Benin (L-4)	10,545	10,872	0.14%	225.1	327	1.5
Pakistan (H-12)	842	868	0.01%	18.0	26	1.4
Kenya (M-8)	24,223	24,965	0.32%	516.9	742	1.4
Cape Verde (K-1)	1,936	1,995	0.03%	41.3	59	1.4
Burkina Faso (K-3)	1,518	1,563	0.02%	32.4	45	1.4
Guyana (J-37)	2,680	2,758	0.04%	57.1	78	1.4
Nigeria (L-4)	312,251	320,589	4.16%	6637.3	8,338	1.3
Fiji (N-24)	2,734	2,807	0.04%	58.1	73	1.3
Myanmar (J-15)	3,705	3,803	0.05%	78.7	98	1.2
Ireland (E-2)	5,930	6,078	0.08%	125.8	148	1.2
Malawi (N-8)	78,225	80,175	1.04%	1659.9	1,950	1.2
El Salvador (H-33)	37,721	38,643	0.50%	800.0	922	1.2
New Caledonia (O-23)	1,936	1,983	0.03%	41.1	47	1.1
Guinea (K-2)	692	708	0.01%	14.7	16	1.1
Ethiopia (L-8)	9,300	9,515	0.12%	197.0	215	1.1
Sierra Leone (L-2)	1,840	1,882	0.02%	39.0	42	1.1
Gabon (M-5)	3,560	3,641	0.05%	75.4	81	1.1
Georgia (G-9)	17,577	17,964	0.23%	371.9	387	1.0
South Africa (P-6)	89,929	91,848	1.19%	1901.6	1,919	1.0
Zambia (N-7)	156,898	160,211	2.08%	3316.9	3,313	1.0
San Marino (F-5)	199	203	0.00%	4.2	4	1.0
Liberia (L-2)	5,728	5,843	0.08%	121.0	115	1.0
Saint Kitts (O-32)	202	206	0.00%	4.3	4	0.9
Switzerland (F-4)	17,696	18,038	0.23%	373.4	342	0.9
Cameroon (L-5)	35,604	36,288	0.47%	751.3	684	0.9
Paraguay (M-37)	8,781	8,947	0.12%	185.2	166	0.9
Senegal (K-2)	1,116	1,136	0.01%	23.5	20	0.9
Chile (M-35)	72,420	73,658	0.96%	1525.0	1,238	0.8
Kyrgyzstan (G-12)	4,804	4,882	0.06%	101.1	78	0.8
Norway (C-4)	10,959	11,133	0.14%	230.5	174	0.8
Brazil (L-37)	737,951	748,940	9.73%	15505.6	10,989	0.7
Solomon Islands (M-22)	1,717	1,742	0.02%	36.1	25	0.7
Trinidad & Tobago (R-33)	9,216	9,347	0.12%	193.5	131	0.7
Saint Lucia (Q-33)	711	721	0.01%	14.9	10	0.7
Malta (G-5)	570	578	0.01%	12.0	8	0.7
Martinique (P-32)	4,711	4,771	0.06%	98.8	60	0.6
Antigua (P-32)	475	481	0.01%	10.0	6	0.6
Seychelles (M-9)	327	331	0.00%	6.9	4	0.6
Botswana (O-6)	2,045	2,070	0.03%	42.9	25	0.6
Cyprus (H-7)	2,439	2,468	0.03%	51.1	29	0.6
Dominica (P-33)	422	427	0.01%	8.8	5	0.6
Australia (O-19)	64,884	65,596	0.85%	1358.1	712	0.5
Grenada (Q-32)	547	553	0.01%	11.4	6	0.5
Lithuania (D-6)	3,095	3,126	0.04%	64.7	31	0.5
United States of America (E-32)	1,156,150	1,167,723	15.17%	24175.9	11,573	0.5
France (F-4)	121,331	122,456	1.59%	2535.3	1,125	0.4
Serbia (C-11)	3,816	3,851	0.05%	79.7	35	0.4
Cayman Islands (H-34)	221	223	0.00%	4.6	2	0.4
Cuba (G-34)	94,810	95,656	1.24%	1980.4	846	0.4
Gibraltar (G-3)	113	114	0.00%	2.4	1	0.4
Russia (C-15)	162,748	164,187	2.13%	3399.2	1,439	0.4
Romania (F-6)	39,803	40,154	0.52%	831.3	351	0.4
Kazakhstan (F-11)	17,175	17,321	0.22%	358.6	146	0.4
Argentina (N-36)	142,435	143,620	1.87%	2973.4	1,185	0.4
Italy (G-5)	245,326	247,259	3.21%	5119.1	1,933	0.4
Denmark (D-4)	14,281	14,380	0.19%	297.7	99	0.3
Central African Republic (L-6)	2,474	2,491	0.03%	51.6	17	0.3
Uruguay (O-37)	11,386	11,464	0.15%	237.3	78	0.3
Britain (E-3)	131,629	132,515	1.72%	2743.5	886	0.3
Lebanon (H-8)	3,581	3,602	0.05%	74.6	21	0.3
Papua New Guinea (M-20)	3,770	3,792	0.05%	78.5	22	0.3
Belgium (E-4)	24,131	24,243	0.31%	501.9	112	0.2
R ´eunion (O-10)	2,887	2,899	0.04%	60.0	12	0.2
Mauritius (O-10)	1,733	1,740	0.02%	36.0	7	0.2
Virgin Islands, British (O-31)	264	265	0.00%	5.5	1	0.2
Austria (F-5)	20,795	20,873	0.27%	432.1	78	0.2
Mali (K-3)	274	275	0.00%	5.7	1	0.2
Canada (C-31)	112,710	113,111	1.47%	2341.8	401	0.2
New Zealand (Q-24)	13,742	13,789	0.18%	285.5	47	0.2
Barbados (Q-33)	2,484	2,492	0.03%	51.6	8	0.2
Korea, Republic of (G-18)	99,970	100,276	1.30%	2076.1	306	0.1
Ukraine (E-7)	149,199	149,597	1.94%	3097.2	398	0.1
Spain (G-3)	107,986	108,254	1.41%	2241.2	268	0.1
Netherlands (E-4)	29,292	29,356	0.38%	607.8	64	0.1
Jamaica (H-34)	11,838	11,843	0.15%	245.2	5	0.0
Swaziland (P-7)	2,938	2,937	0.04%	60.8	-1	0.0
Sweden (B-6)	22,043	22,033	0.29%	456.2	-10	0.0
Azores (G-1)	749	748	0.01%	15.5	-1	-0.1
Czech Republic (E-5)	15,352	15,329	0.20%	317.4	-23	-0.1
Germany (E-5)	162,705	162,459	2.11%	3363.5	-246	-0.1
Lesotho (P-7)	3,648	3,640	0.05%	75.4	-8	-0.1
Puerto Rico (O-31)	25,827	25,752	0.33%	533.2	-75	-0.1
Hungary (A-10)	22,593	22,526	0.29%	466.4	-67	-0.1
Japan (G-19)	216,692	215,966	2.81%	4471.2	-726	-0.2
Slovakia (F-6)	11,094	11,056	0.14%	228.9	-38	-0.2
Finland (C-7)	18,710	18,643	0.24%	386.0	-67	-0.2
Portugal (G-2)	49,049	48,843	0.63%	1011.2	-206	-0.2
Madeira (H-1)	1,140	1,135	0.01%	23.5	-5	-0.2
Armenia (G-9)	11,019	10,965	0.14%	227.0	-54	-0.2
Bahamas (G-35)	1,602	1,594	0.02%	33.0	-8	-0.2
Andorra (F-4)	164	163	0.00%	3.4	-1	-0.3
Macedonia (D-11)	1,329	1,320	0.02%	27.3	-9	-0.3
Greece (G-6)	29,003	28,804	0.37%	596.3	-199	-0.3
Niger (K-4)	290	288	0.00%	6.0	-2	-0.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina (C-10)	1,191	1,182	0.02%	24.5	-9	-0.4
Croatia (B-9)	5,552	5,509	0.07%	114.1	-43	-0.4
Poland (E-6)	124,292	123,278	1.60%	2552.3	-1,014	-0.4
Moldova (F-7)	20,020	19,856	0.26%	411.1	-164	-0.4
Saint Helena (N-3)	117	116	0.00%	2.4	-1	-0.4
Tonga (O-25)	225	223	0.00%	4.6	-2	-0.4
Estonia (D-6)	4,152	4,108	0.05%	85.0	-44	-0.5
Bermuda (F-36)	462	457	0.01%	9.5	-5	-0.5
Guadeloupe (P-32)	8,089	7,993	0.10%	165.5	-96	-0.6
Luxembourg (E-4)	2,013	1,988	0.03%	41.2	-25	-0.6
Latvia (D-6)	2,327	2,290	0.03%	47.4	-37	-0.8
Saint Martin (O-32)	299	294	0.00%	6.1	-5	-0.8
Marshall Islands (L-23)	178	175	0.00%	3.6	-3	-0.8
Slovenia (B-8)	1,983	1,948	0.03%	40.3	-35	-0.9
Guam (K-20)	748	730	0.01%	15.1	-18	-1.2
Virgin Islands, U.S. (O-31)	615	593	0.01%	12.3	-22	-1.8
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines (Q-32)	355	340	0.00%	7.0	-15	-2.1
Chuuk (L-21)	46	44	0.00%	0.9	-2	-2.2
Greenland (A-38)	154	147	0.00%	3.0	-7	-2.3
Saint Eustatius (P-32)	22	21	0.00%	0.4	-1	-2.3
Pohnpei (L-22)	81	76	0.00%	1.6	-5	-3.2
Palau (L-19)	80	75	0.00%	1.6	-5	-3.2
Saipan (K-20)	212	196	0.00%	4.1	-16	-3.9
Sudan (K-7)	495	456	0.01%	9.4	-39	-4.1
Falkland Islands (Q-37)	12	11	0.00%	0.2	-1	-4.4
Saba (O-32)	9	8	0.00%	0.2	-1	-6.0
Tuvalu (M-24)	62	53	0.00%	1.1	-9	-8.2
Wallis & Futuna Islands (N-25)	61	49	0.00%	1.0	-12	-11.8

Grand Total (239 Lands)		7,698,377			159,383

besty

Yellow highlighting didn't work so look around the middle of the table for South Africa for countries that achieved exactly the 1X growth you would expect - they are truly average.

The other thing worth noting is how 'Other Lands' returned about 10X growth compared to global avergae - banning is good for WTS and other cults. Governments should take note that banning is counter-productive, but then they are cults in themselves so it serves their purposes on a greater scale to have a few banned organisations to keep their people in line.

Bear in mind also that the X factor is relative to a pretty paltry growth rate globally of 2.1%. So just picking on Canada for an example - their 0.2X factor means they only achieved 20% of sales target, which in itself was just 2% growth....this is a really poor perfomance Canada.

Also note the big countries that achieved negative growth in actual numbers (ignoring population growth which makes it even worse) Germany Japan Portugal and Poland - your place in the Hall of Shame is assured.

Ireland is the only Western Europe country of any note that is actually doing better than you would expect with 1.2X or +20% above target. Even then its a realtively small base of 5 or 6000 publishers.

Yearbook Chart Re-posted - Math explained. Top 7 countries account for 50% growth

Share this