Here is an article I looked up about the collapse of the soviet union. Striking similarities.
http://www.worldology.com/Europe/Europe_Articles/causes_soviet_collapse.htm
Stagnating Economy: The Soviet Union had grown to a size large enough to the point where it became cumbersome to continue state planning. The massive and intricate Soviet economy became too large to manage by state planners, who were unwilling to enable more autonomy at mid-managerial level to remain responsive down to a localized level. This resulted in failed economic policies (failure to respond timely to continuous changes), while thwarting innovation. Managers commonly fudged numbers to show that quotas and goals were being met.
The recent changes show that the org is failing to allow autonomy at the congregational level. They just stripped away a crucial level of autonomy. The intense levels of micro-management will be their undoing. The local elders have already been turned into unfeeling robots. Now the GB has projected themselves directly into the Kindgom Halls and Assembly halls with modern technology. This gives them the illusion of control. However, many people aren't buying it anymore. Not surprisingly the International Conventions have created a small rebellion.
Glasnost: With the Soviet public becoming more disenchanted with their secretive government, Gorbachev attempted to compensate by committing to openness and transparency with the media. However, this backfired as the public learned of long-standing political cover ups revealing past and recent atrocities, missteps by leadership, social and health failures of the USSR and the true extent of national economic problems. This further eroded support for the regime.
Cherynobyl Disaster: The nuclear power plant accident in the Ukraine town of Cherynobyl. It was initially covered up by the Soviet government, compounding the health crisis, while further sowing the seeds of distrust within the constituency, as the extent of the disaster and the cover-up came to light.
The secretive nature of the organization will soon be blown wide open. The sex abuse lawsuits will be a cherynobyl of sorts. People will no longer trust leadership. Any last minute reforms made by the GB will just lead to people in the West leaving in record numbers.
Lack of Economic Incentives: The state-planned economic system did not provide sufficient incentives to encourage innovation and ambitious productivity.
This will be a killer. With the false promise of the end being fully realized, there is no reason to resign yourself to a lifetime of slaving for the WT. All JW children have to look forward to is a life of door knocking and kingdom hall building. More and more children are defecting upon reaching adulthood, depleting the organization of compassionate caring people.
...OUTLAW