Rachael de Vienne is one of the authors of A Separate Identity, an exhaustive history of the Watch Tower's early years. This is from her personal blog:
http://wardancingpixie.blogspot.com/
I continue to probe at the mysteries of belief. At thirty-six I’m no nearer to unraveling them than I was when I was twelve and first puzzling over the questions of why people believe the improbable and why people reject the obvious. I wish I could answer those questions. I can’t.
I’m researching the widely spread but improbable end of the age beliefs centered on 1881. We will present a wider view of apocalyptic belief than we usually do. It will put the beliefs of the groups we profile in context. Belief in the religio-scientific nature of the Great Pyramid led many to expect great events that year. A faked Mother Shipton prophecy added to the concern, and Haley’s comment led to predictions of doom. The failure of prophetic expectations that year marked the high-water of predictive prophecy. Oh people continue to speculate about the prophetic numbers found in Daniel and Revelation, but those who do so are seen as kooks, and they are in the minority. Before 1881 there were naysayers, but many were inclined to believe
A lecturer in Omaha suggested Christianity was to blame, saying that it was the sole source of apocalyptic expectation. This is stupid. Many non-Christian cultures have end of the world beliefs. A final judgment of all souls is part of many religions.
When we approached this chapter, we believed the 1881 expectations centered primarily in the English speaking world. This is wrong. I found a newspaper report to the contrary:
Great excitement is caused by the number of pamphlets now published prophesying the near approach of the end of the world. In Paris some thousands of brochures are sold every day. The credulity of mankind has ever been agape to swallow the dire foreboding of self-constituted prophets. Seasons like the present make the fortunes of the Zadkeils, and, in a higher sense, play into the hands of well-meaning divines. [A 19 th Century astrologer used the name Zadkeils.]
Interesting stuff, no? We’ll pursue this some. I’d at least like to see what German speakers were thinking about 1881.
The three groups (I first typed gropes. I’m such a bad typist! Or maybe I’m thinkin’ ‘bout my pet Scotsman. He returns home this evening.) … The three groups we consider in this chapter approached 1881 in similar ways. Important differences brought differing results. For the Barbourites, it brought final irrelevance. By 1885, except for some minor irritation, they stopped being relevant theologically.
Differences existed between adherents of the WatchTower movement. A man named A. D. Jones was drifting into Josephitism. He read pamphlets that came from the fringes of the One Faith movement and was persuaded. A major weakness in our research is the apparent loss of all issues of his magazine published in the first three years. We rely on quotations from it made by others. This is not satisfactory.
Polemicists focus on Russellite (Not meant in the pejorative sense) adaptability. Some of the Bible Student brethren still see 1881 as significant. I don’t. But we don’t argue theology; we just tell the story as it happened. Russell allowed a wider discussion of probable 1881 events than was within the scope of his personal belief. This caused him some trouble. With the passing of 1881, he found himself still seeing the date as biblically significant. So he had to find new explanations for it. He wasn’t alone. A writer in England pursued the same course.
The problem I find with most comments on Russellite expectations is that they are inaccurate or out of context. Context and detail are everything.
This chapter will be harder to write than the one we just finished.