So at the international convention 235 were baptized. The attendance was 34k. That's resents less than 1% its about .6%. Overall there were 691 baptized and 108k in attendance. This again represents .6% of the attendance. No new ones baptized from my congregation. Still this beats the dismal amount baptized at my circuit assembly. In February we had 2 people baptized and an attendance of 800.
Stagnant JW growth at international convention
by kneehighmiah 52 Replies latest jw friends
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OneEyedJoe
Yep, similar numbers at my last convention and assembly (maybe a few more at the assembly, but not more than .6%). So, figuring .6% baptisms 3 times a year (probably generous, since there's usually more at the conventions) leaves you at about 1.8% anual growth. Then, when you account for the ~1% DFing rate, you're down to ~0.8% growth. Once you account for faders, which (based on the jwfacts stats article) seems to be somewhere between 0.5 and 1%, you're likely looking at a net decrease in membership in developed countries.
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88JM
Don't also forget people dying, OneEyedJoe
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BU2B
There was an assembly in my circuit 2 years ago that had no one baptized. They gave the talk to no one.
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AndDontCallMeShirley
Don't also forget people dying
This refers to those still in, right? LOL.
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Compare numbers from a few years ago to today. It wasn't that long ago there were 4 million JWs putting in less FS time annually than now...and baptisms were at 360,000 per year.
Now you have 8 million JWs counting nearly 2 billion hours per year...and baptisms are 250,000 +/-. And half those are children of JWs.
Only in WT Land could this be interpretted as growth and "progress".
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sir82
I'm virtually certain that the number of English-speaking JWs in the US has been decreasing for at least 5 years, maybe more. The nominal growth in the US comes from foreign-language congregations, primarily Spanish. And even that is slowing down.
Even though there are still small increases in most nations, I'm convinced we'll see gross reductions in the number of publishers in the US & all of the 1st world before the decade is out.
Unless the rumors are true and the GB really wants to suddenly alienate the dispirited and lethargic half of JWs, to consolidate their grip on what is left. If that is the case, the drop will come much sooner!
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sporece
The question is...how many from the field?
Usually 95% are very young ones that get dipped because that's the thing to do.
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AndDontCallMeShirley
The question is...how many from the field?
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That's the $64,000 question.
In my 40+ years as a JW, whenever a speaker from the platform asked the cong. by a show of hands how many came in to "the Truth" from D to D witnessing, the result was always the same: most likely: 0; or, maybe one or two out of a cong. of 150 publishers. The vast majority were relatives/children of JWs.
The fact is most who become JWs, who aren't children of JWs, learn of the religion in the same way that every other religion gets converts: they learn about it through a workmate, a person in the religion that befriends the person, or through heresay. Very few actually convert as a direct result of the public witnessing, which makes the focus on D to D work even more ridiculous.
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OneEyedJoe
88JM - great point, thanks. In the US, the mortality rate is about 0.8%, which would effectively wipe out any increase based on my math above, even before accounting for faders, so a decrease of a half to one percent anually seems to be pretty realistic. Also, I'd be willing to bet that the mortality rate among JWs is considerably higher than the general populace due to their reduced income (and therefore reduced access to good healthcare) and the fact that most kids eventually leave means that those left are well above average age. I've also noticed that obesity and other health problems is much more rampant among JWs, all of which would push up mortality rate.
They won't be able to hide the decline much longer.
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ruderedhead
Shirley, I was a d2d convert, and the cog. I was in at the time had 3 more(women) who were also d2d converts. I knew of 1 other in another cong. But that was back in the mid 80's!
Do you think that was normal for the time, or were we just guillible housewives w children? I think today most people will research easily on the web before getting involved, and I know I personally today would show them the door after showing them how misguided their beleifs are!