"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - 19th-century British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881)
Did the organization admit declining growth and stagnation in today's watchtower?
by kneehighmiah 27 Replies latest jw friends
-
-
OMJ
It's a lot cheaper and more effective to recruit starving Africans than affluent people
Berrygerry, I'm an African. Even though i was succesfully recruited, i'm nowhere near starving. What you're saying is not only a false interpretation of statistics, but it is also in pretty bad taste.
-
Jeffro
OMJ:
Berrygerry, I'm an African. Even though i was succesfully recruited, i'm nowhere near starving. What you're saying is not only a false interpretation of statistics, but it is also in pretty bad taste.
The comment was obviously intended in reference to countries in Africa with a low Human Development Index, where there is the greatest rate of growth among JWs - countries like Angola (9%), Burundi (5%), D.R. of Congo (7%), Gambia (4%), Guinea-Bissau (6%), Ivory Coast (5%), Madagascar (7%), Rwanda (8%), Tanzania (5%), Togo (4%), Uganda (7%), and Zimbabwe (4%). (2013 stats.)
Your previous posts indicate you're from South Africa, which is both more affluent and has a lower rate of JW growth.
A statement about 'recruiting starving Africans' (though I probably wouldn't have put it that way) does not suggest that all Africans are starving or that only starving Africans are recruited.
-
Ocean1111
In reality JWs are probably below 7 million if the real numbers were known, and the real contraction data was published.
-
Jeffro
Ocean1111:
In reality JWs are probably below 7 million if the real numbers were known, and the real contraction data was published.
The number of 'publishers' is probably accurate, more or less. The way JWs count membership is skewed towards artificially inflating their growth rather than their membership.
Consider the diagram below for a couple of hypothetical congregations. Entries in blue indicate situations that increase counted membership. Entries in red indication situations that reduce counted membership.
Both congregations start with 80 people attending their services. Even when not much happens in a congregation to affect membership - in this case each congregation has one child born, and one child becomes a 'publisher' (this has no direct equivalent in churches that count all attendees) - the JW congregation reports higher growth.
A couple of years later, one year has a few other things happen in the hypothetical congregations:
In this case, a JW child becomes a publisher, 3 new converts are made, 1 person dies, 1 is born, 1 becomes 'active' again (maybe handing out a few leaflets advertising the website), 1 becomes 'inactive', and 2 'disassociate'. The net gain in both cases is 1 member. Yet the JW congregation reports higher growth.
Even when there is a net loss, so long as some born-in JWs become 'publishers', the JW congregation generally reports higher growth (in this case, a smaller loss) than a church that reports all attendees.
-
steve2
Some good work Jeffro. Could you clarify which aspects are what actually happens in counting publishers and which aspects intelligent guesswork. Otherwise, it's hard to know how helpful the tables are.
-
Jeffro
steve2:
Some good work Jeffro. Could you clarify which aspects are what actually happens in counting publishers and which aspects intelligent guesswork. Otherwise, it's hard to know how helpful the tables are.
The 'congregations' and hence the specific figures used are hypothetical. However, it is not difficult to verify that the mechanisms are thosed used by JWs to count 'members', none of which is guesswork.
JWs count 'publishers', based on monthly 'Field Service Reports'.
These things increase the number of 'publishers':
- JW children becoming unbaptized publishers (baptism does not increase membership)
- New recruits becoming unbaptized publishers
- Inactive JWs starting to report preaching again
These things decrease the number of 'publishers':
- Death
- JWs failing to report preaching
- Being disfellowshipped
- Disassociating
Which element are you calling into question?
-
steve2
Lovely, thanks jeffro. Your succinct reply helped me grasp better the categories in the tables.
