When will JW Land Peak?

thedepressedsoul

I’d like to start off by saying that if you look at history, every big businesses, organization etc… eventually peaks. People think Microsoft is peaking due to competition. People are saying religion in general has peaked. Recently there was a news article about how McDonalds has already seen its best days and is having trouble appealing to the new generation. This can be see happening over and over again. In the gaming community there is a genre called MMO. These games are heavily subscription based and it is always of topic of when the game has peaked and starts to lose subscribers. With that tone sent, I’d like to raise the questions and give insight on when JW has and will peak.

First, we can all agree that the growth they once experienced is no longer the case. I don’t think we’re going to see anymore burst in numbers except for when a tragic world event happens. As we all know though, that eventually dies down and people go back to their normal way of life. Religion is on a decline in general and this is only going to continue as mankind advances in their understanding. We can all agree on that fact. In regards to the member’s numbers growing, I think we will see that for a while to come. Lower educated countries and lands have awhile to go so I think that’ll show some sort of growth. My guess is it’ll remain at 1-2% per year. I know it’s going to be a slow growth because I have been hearing speakers for the last 3 years say, “Almost 8 million Jehovah’s witnesses”. I know that sounds better to the audience but when you’ve been saying it over 3 years and it still has not hit the 8 million mark, it’s a sign. It will eventually hit it but not how they’ve hit million markers in the past.

Now, in regards to the rest of JW’s numbers. I think these are going to continue to slow down. Hours preached, meeting attendance etc… will and have seen a decline. I believe 100% that there will be policy changes shortly that will cause these numbers to increase when really, the overall number has been decreasing. History has already shown them to do this and I think it will be happening on a bigger scale. For example, with cart witnessing you can count your time from the moment you leave your home, until you are set up and then continue to count it until you’re home again. That can add hours to the person monthly time. I think we’re going to see that change take place towards all publishers. Even if this add 1 hour per publisher a month, think how much more the number of hours preached will be, it’ll hide any sign of decrease. This change is coming because CO’s for the last 2-3 years have been saying in their parts that the Elders should not be dogmatic with how someone counts their time, that each person is different even though the OD book clearly states how to count your time. Expect a change. Kingdom Halls will be consolidated to give them a more full feeling. Because honestly, Thursday nights especially during the summer when people are away, is just sad. We will also see pioneer hours lowered again along with aux pioneer hours lowered every month. This will allow more to pioneer and make up and exceed any hours lost by lowering it. Campaigns will happen about every 3 months from now on in my opinion if not every 2. The August one isn’t even done yet and already they’re on to the one in October. These campaigns will also help fluff the decreasing numbers.

Expect a new OD book within the next year or two that changes all of these “policies”. Be on a look out for these polices “fudging” the numbers so to speak.

Phizzy

I will stick my neck out and say they have peaked. I do not mean that they will see no growth, but that the accellerated growth of yesteryear is long gone.

Of course JW.Org will continue to report the figures in such a way as to make growth seem a reality.

I think there is a huge undercurrent of discontent and disillusion, quite staunch long time JW's are at least partially waking up.

What is more pertinent is, have we really reached the Tipping Point ?

This is really the point where, as Malcolm Gladwell explains in his book "Tipping Point", where social trends, ideas and customs change, then things begin to move in a different direction, but as the Tipping Point is not easy to identify, except with hindsight, businesses and governments are too slow reacting , because the change has already happened.

If the JW.org religion has in fact reached its Tipping Point, we can expect discernable decline to follow shortly.

OneEyedJoe

Depending on the numbers you look at, it could be argued that they peaked in 2011, since they've never achieved that number of memorial attendees since.

They're definitely making changes so that the numbers look better. The reduction in hours to aux pioneer has surely increased both hours and pioneers. The ones who might have been doing 40 hours a month are now pushing just a little bit harder to hit 50 so they can get the title (or at least they're counting their time differently so they can do it). Same thing with the "special" months when you're allowed to aux for the low price of 30 hours. I see them changing to 30 hours permenantly, claiming the "success seen during the special campaigns." Then look for them to tout the momentous increase in the number of aux pioneers. This might even yeild a temporary increase in total number of hours worked.

There will continue to be growth in undeveloped countries, but there's probably already a slight decline in the US and UK, they're just changing the stats to hide it by consolodating branches and such.

The most important statistic has almost certainly peaked: donations.

Justnowout

Its a very interesting question and the answers already given equally as interesting.

From an insiders perspective i would agree the peak is past. The excitment and buzz has gone. My congregation is lively and people are "happy", as far as that goes in the cult, but the die hard adherance to cult concepts isnt there, the zeal for all things dubbie just isnt anywhere near as tangible. The big deal of the international was talk up and talked up...... And it wiffed by, face book posts made, its already forgotten.

Pew reports that at least 1/3 of borns in leave maybe as much as 2/3. That seems about right to me. I also agree that only disasters drive people TO the org, be they natural, large scale disasters or more personal "disaters" like divorce, illness or someother hardship that cause people to search for answers. Its a cult and thats the draw, at its core, is a sense of certainty. interestingly, current world events dont seem to be driving recruiting, and that does supprise me, but it may be a sign of how other media, like the internet, is making an impact.

fincially, i also agree the peak is long past. The real estate sell off is proof positive. As an aside, the KH scam is going to ramp up, or so word in the org is. With the "forgiving" of loans congregations are bekng activly emcouraged to seek sites to build. Take that in For a minute.

sir82

Hours preached, meeting attendance etc… will and have seen a decline.

Hours preached have been increasing steadily. The 30-hour auxiliary pioneer rule was a stroke of genius on their part.

The efficiency of all those hours preached? That's a different kettle of fish. The number of new baptisms per year is stagnant.

Numerical growth will continue its stagnancy or decline the western world, offset by still-respectable but slowing growth in the 3rd world.

The malaise of the western world's congregations is spreading, and soon, probably within 5-10 years, even 3rd world growth won't be able to mask it.

Londo111

I suspect the turning of the tide began in the mid-90's with the Generation change, the advent of the Internet, no Armageddon.

9/11 gave the Org a shot in the arm that forstalled that.

hamsterbait

Google are already investigating new ways of connecting the 3rd world to the www.

One is balloon ariels that will enable even remote villages wireless BB.

Once that happens watch it all go tits up for the delusional psychos in Crooklyn Beth Hell

steve2

Peak publishers may finally be over 8,000,000 - but keep an eye on the average number of publishers. In decades past, average numbers caught up with peak numbers inside two years. Now the lag between peak and publishers remains for several years.

As for the peak: For a robust example of peak activity, look back more than 40 years to the years of build up to 1975. In every conceivable sense of the word, growth was hugely evident worldwide - and in particular, in Western countries.

The organization's heyday is well and truly embedded in the past.

SuperBoy

Never underestimate religions ability to reinvent itself. Especially your flexible friend - Jehovah's Witnesses.

Where everything ever taught can be brushed under the carpet as new light, where mistakes are imperfection, and you shouldn't really feel bad if someone offends you because the mark of the true religion was love, not perfection.

God it's genius.