Look out Boeing and Airbus - you're domination of Aviation may soon be over

by fulltimestudent 26 Replies latest social current

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  fulltimestudent

  DesirousOfChangean hour agoHow many average Citizens of China or Russia can afford to buy an airline ticket?
  Doc

  I last flew in China in 2006. The airports in both Beijing and Shanghai were large and crowded. Its a two hour flight from BJ to SH and it cost me A$100.00. The plane was full.

  I now prefer to travel by Very Fast Train, Beijing to Shanghai takes 4.5 hours for about the same current cost. The advantage is that the stations are in the city centres and you don't have to be at the station an hour before boarding.

  I will try to find out current passenger numbers and post later.

  
  
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  fulltimestudent

  Another smaller but potential competitor to the Airbus/Boeing dominance is Japan. Here's a pik of regional aircraft  being prepared by Mitsubishi:

  See it at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-18/japan-unveils-first-passenger-jet-after-4-years-of-delays.html
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  DJS

  Thanks FTS,

  Competition can only make things better in this arena. Given the recent issues in the aviation industry, that should be a good thing. 
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  fulltimestudent

  As promised, some data on the Civil Aviation industry in China.

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  In 2002 there were only 4 airports in China with a capacity to handle 10,000,000 passengers a year or more.

  By 2011 there were 21 airports with that capacity and the main ones (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou) handle many more

  By 2016 (next year), there will be some 230 Airports of at least that capacity.

  There is a government estimate that by 2030 China will need another 5000 aircraft.

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  An IATA (International Air Transport Association) report last year forecast that by 2034 flights to, from and within China will account for some 1.3 billion passengers, 856 million more than 2014. 

  Which places the 2014 figures, as nearly 500 million. The forecast concluded that China will overtake the USA as the world's largest aviation passenger market by 2030.

  The above from business magazine, AsiaToday International.

  (  http://www.asiatoday.com.au/content/china-us-lead-future-air-traffic-growth-says-iata  )

  ----------------------------------

  Sort of corroborating that forecast is Boeing's own estimate of the size of the Chinese market:  

  http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2013-09-05-Boeing-Forecasts-Chinas-Fleet-to-Triple-Over-Next-20-Years
  

  New Airplane Deliveries to China: 2013-2032

  Airplane type	Seats	Total deliveries	Dollar value
  Regional jets	90 and below	240	$10B
  Single-aisle	90-230	3,900	$370B
  Small wide-body	200-300	730	$170B
  Medium wide-body	300-400	610	$200B
  Large wide-body	400 and above	100	$30B
  Total		5,580 (16% of world total)	$780B (16% of world total)
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  fulltimestudent

  The huge size of the Chinese market can be gauged by the planned size of China's third airport. The UK Guardian features it in this report:

  ( Link: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/sep/08/beijing-aviation-hub-mega-airport  )

  Beijing set to become world's busiest aviation hub with new mega-airport
  Proposals for giant third airport could mean 120 million passengers pass through Chinese capital a year

  
  

  Guardian
  Jonathan Watts in Beijing
  Friday 9 September 201103.57 AEST
  Beijing is moving to overtake London as the world's busiest aviation hub with the construction of a third airport that could have as many as nine runways.
  The new mega-project – part of a huge expansion of China's airline industry – has alarmed environmental groups, who warn aircraft will increasingly contribute to the country's already dire pollution problems and high greenhouse gas emissions.
  The government has yet to announce details of the project, but the Guardian has spoken to sources familiar with the initial designs and seen signs of construction in the rural district of Daxing, about 31 miles (50km) south-west of the city centre.
  On the roadside, labourers are building an elaborate 10m-high steel and concrete map of the world topped by giant red characters declaring: "Construction of a New Airport City for the Capital."
  Migrant workers, who live in tents on the site, said they had started work last month on the paving and fountains for the monument.
  This follows the inclusion earlier this year of a new capital airport in the government's latest five-year plan.
  It was only four years ago that the existing airport in the north of the city opened a huge third terminal ahead of the Beijing Olympics. Designed by the British architect, Norman Foster, it was then the world's biggest airport building, with more floor space than all five Heathrow terminals combined. But it has filled faster than expected due to the rapid growth of China's economy.
  Last year, the airport handled 73.9 million passengers. By 2015, this is expected to rise to 90 million – 12 million more than it was designed for.
  Beijing authorities have said they will start work this year on land acquisition and demolition for a new airport. In addition to a semi-military airport in Nanyuan, this first phase – due for completion in 2015 – will give the city the capacity to handle 120 million passengers a year. Depending on growth, this would see Beijing overtake London and Tokyo, which each had about 100 million in 2010. Even by Chinese standards, the proposals for the later stages of construction are staggering.
  
  According to the domestic media and sources familiar with the project, the new airport is being designed to ultimately handle between 120 million and 200 million passengers, and have eight civilian runways and perhaps another for the military if Nanyuan is closed. Denver international airport currently has the most runways in the world with six.

  A further paragraph notes:

  China's aviation industry is already booming. Last year, it reported a profit of 43bn yuan (£3.9bn), triple the figure for the previous year. In the coming 20 years, China is forecast to buy 4,300 new jet aircraft. 
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  fulltimestudent

  Previously I posted that, a few weeks ago a Chinese made 99 seat passenger jet ( designated as the ARJ21) had received its airworthiness certification in China.

  Today a report from China, indicates that assembly of a larger passenger aircraft, the C919 had commenced last September, (as shown in the image below) and was now almost complete.

  The first test flight is scheduled toward the end of 2015.

  
  

  Zhou Guirong is the deputy chief designer of the C919. comments:
  

  The C919 has been outfitted with the latest in aviation technology.
  "In cloudy or smoggy weather, pilots vision of the runway may be obscured. But with the sensors we've installed in the aircraft, pilots will be able to get an infrared view of what's happening outside during takeoff and landing. The C919 is among the first large commercial jets to have the new technology installed."
  The C919 can fly up to 5-thousand kilometers, and can accommodate up to 160 passengers.
  Zhou Guirong says the new jetliner is also more efficient than a lot of planes currently in the sky.
  "Our engine layout reduces fuel consumption by around 15-percent compared with its counterparts, improving its overall operational efficiency by 10-percent. The C919 is very competitive when it comes to safety, economics, comfort and environmental friendliness."

  Link:http://en.people.cn/n/2015/0106/c90000-8832082.html 
  

  
  
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  fulltimestudent

  See, Chinese made Airbus 320's, and a nearly complete C919, in this video:

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK615HSn18g