new service report (upturn) (page 6)

Marvin Shilmer

For whatever worth, statistically there has been consistent increase in the numbers of publishers reported by the Watchtower Society as a ratio of world population:

The 1980 report shows publishers represented 0.0488% of world population. Subsequent years look like this:

1981 - 0.0496%

1982 - 0.0508%

1983 - 0.0533%

1984 - 0.0561%

1985 - 0.0590%

1986 - 0.0620%

1987 - 0.0645%

1988 - 0.0671%

1989 - 0.0698%

1990 - 0.0728%

1991 - 0.0759%

1992 - 0.0787%

1993 - 0.0811%

1994 - 0.0837%

1995 - 0.0870%

1996 - 0.0896%

1997 - 0.0916%

1998 - 0.0936%

1999 - 0.0942%

2000 - 0.0951%

2001 - 0.0955%

2002 - 0.0982%

The 2002 report shows twice the percentage of publishers versus world population as the year 1980.

________________

Marvin Shilmer

blondie

All I can say is this increase is not reflected in the meeting attendance. But then that statistic is not on the chart.

If you have 80 publishers and only 60 show up or less for the TMS is that an increase? The hourly average means something too. If in 1990 there were 80 publishers getting in 8 hours monthly, that would be 640 hours monthly. If in 2002 you have 80 publishers getting in 6 hours monthly, that would be 480 hours. With the same number of publishers, but a decrease in hours.

Factoring out the auxiliary and regular pioneers the hourly average has been

1998 9.4

1999 8.2

2000 7.6

2001 7.6

Marvin Shilmer

Hello, Blondie

Im not sure it is fair statistically to count out any aspect of reports. We should look at what the reports are, not what they would be if we counted out one or more aspects.

Many would probably be surprised to compare the average monthly hours of reported field service by total publishers, including pioneer publishers.

In 1960 the total average publishers (851,378 that year) averaged 12.89 hours per month over the course of the year. Subsequent years looked like this:

The period of 1961 through 1970 total average publishers averaged 14.12 hours per month.

The period of 1971 through 1980 total average publishers averaged 14.30 hours per month.

The period of 1981 through 1990 total average publishers averaged 16.97 hours per month.

The period of 1991 through 2000 total average publishers averaged 18.62 hours per month.

For the year 2002 alone total average publishers averaged 16.57 hours per month.

A running 10-year average since 1959 shows that the year 1984 had the lowest 10-year average with 13.73 hours per month per total average publisher over the previous 10 years. The highest 10-year average over the same period (1959-2002) shows 1995 as the highest with 19.31 hours per total average publisher over the previous 10 years. As of 2002 the running 10-year average for monthly field service for total average publishers is 17.99 hours. As for individual years, over the same period (1959-2002), 1978 had the least average per total publishers at 12.27 hours per month per publisher. 1992 had the greatest average per total publishers at 19.91 hours per month per publisher.

In reviewing the full set of statistics over the period of 1959 to present in regard to average time spent in field service, the only thing that really stands out to me is the period immediately following 1975 and the period immediately following 1995; both of which represent significant dates for Jehovahs Witnesses. 1975 was the year held out by the WTS as the year Witnesses could expect Armageddon within months of, which event did not occur. 1995 was the year the WTS significantly changed its doctrine regarding the generation of 1914.

Contrary to other expressions on this thread, September of 2001 does present a statistical change. In the States that month marked the beginning of a (so far) sustained increase in the number of reported publishers. The only significant event concurrent with September 2001 was the terrorist destruction of the twin-towers. For this reason I believe it is more than coincidence that the 2002 report shows the increases it does in developed lands. Residents of all developed nations were horrified by this act of terror.

I will point out, though, that the time Witnesses spend in field service is nowhere near as efficient in terms of gaining publishers as it was in years past. In 1960 the average time it took to have an increase of 1 publisher was 1,907 hours. In 2002 the average time it took to have an increase of 1 publisher was 4,529 hours.

___________________

Marvin Shilmer

fjtoth

Marvin,

To me, your final paragraph is especially interesting. It doesn't at all appear, as the WT Society claims, that "Jehovah is speeding up the work in these last days." If he and his spirit had anything to do with it, the work would be reaping greater and faster results, not less and less.

Frank

ozziepost

Marvin,

Delighted to read your name back among the posts!

Cheers, Ozzie

ballistic

I was interested in Marvins percentage growth figures. I would like to check them by comparing the numbers of witnesses with these official population figures.

Year Population rate (%) change

1980 4,454,607,332 1.69 75,878,237
1981 4,530,485,569 1.75 80,025,181
1982 4,610,510,750 1.72 80,059,467
1983 4,690,570,217 1.67 79,107,100
1984 4,769,677,317 1.67 80,441,521

1985 4,850,118,838 1.68 82,204,217
1986 4,932,323,055 1.71 85,044,696
1987 5,017,367,751 1.69 85,610,304
1988 5,102,978,055 1.67 85,690,264
1989 5,188,668,319 1.66 86,739,470

1990 5,275,407,789 1.58 83,907,299
1991 5,359,315,088 1.55 83,847,070
1992 5,443,162,158 1.48 81,333,352
1993 5,524,495,510 1.44 80,163,815
1994 5,604,659,325 1.43 80,627,596

1995 5,685,286,921 1.38 79,203,147
1996 5,764,490,068 1.37 79,780,884
1997 5,844,270,952 1.34 78,863,511
1998 5,923,134,463 1.32 78,479,328
1999 6,001,613,791 1.28 77,070,538

2000 6,078,684,329 1.23 75,311,071
2001 6,153,995,400 1.20 74,399,030
2002 6,228,394,430 1.18 73,915,261

Does anyone have the euquivalent numbers of JWs which would be required to re-calculate the witnesses own percentage of world population figures as posted by Marvin?

ballistic

ok I found these figures posted by Osarif but it's missing that vital 2002 figure. I need to know as I could have been wrong in my earlier assumptions. 1970: 10.2%
1971: 9.1%
1972: 5.7%
1973: 3.8%
1974: 13.5% (1975 paranoia)
1975: 9.7%
1976: 3.7%
1977: -1 % (decrease: 1975 fiasco)
1978: -1.4% (idem)
1979: 0.5%
1980: 3.7%
1981: 3.3%
1982: 4.2%
1983: 6.8%
1984: 7.2%
1985: 6.4%
1986: 6.8%
1987: 5.7%
1988: 6 %
1989: 5.6%
1990: 6.1% (Russia & East countries opening)
1991: 6.5% (idem)
1992: 5.3%
1993: 4.5%
1994: 5 %
1995: 5 %
1996: 4.4% ("1914 generation" abandoned)
1997: 3.6% (lowest since 1981)
1998: 3.6%
1999: 2 % (lowest since 1979)
2000: 2.3%
2001: 1.7% (lowest since 1979)

ballistic

OK, the 2002 figure as stated by WaterLove was 2.8%. So I am going to have to retract what I said earlier about the witnesses decreasing when compared to world population. I don't mind admitting when I am wrong - after all I was wrong for the first 22 years of my life LOL.

OK - but this is how I see it:

How can the Watchtower claim to be God's only channel when half the world have not even heard of them? The world population is set to increase to 9 billion by 2040 and all of this increase will be in the third world and developing countries where the witnesses have little or no presence. Why is the Watchtower almost obsessed with their statistics and publisher numbers when the figures themselves prove beyond all doubt that either

A. they are not God's sole channel or B. the end is by no means imminent.

siegswife

I wonder how many of those baptisms are the poor kids being born into assimilation?

gumby

IW,

Could you please give a few more illustrations JUST LIKE the last ones you gave for about 10 minutes!

new service report (upturn)

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