TheOldHippie, thanks for catching that. I misread the scale on that chart. I will revise accordingly. Also, I will switch over to a 1% mortality (I used 2% just to be conservative).
Craig
Edited by - onacruse on 11 February 2003 10:12:41
making sense of report
by peacefulpete 23 Replies latest watchtower bible
-
-
peacefulpete
Although the baptizing of kids does account for the great magority of new baptisms it really has nothing to do with why the report showed a 3% increase in the U.S. The number of bapised was typical. In fact if you take the total number of publishers and divide that by the nuber of baptisms each year it can be seen that a slowing own of baptising is occuring. In 1998 the ratio of publishers to baptised was 18.6 to 1. In other words it took the work of 18 publishers to baptise 1 person. In 2001 that ratio had risen to 23.3 to one. It took 23 publishers to make 1 batised person. I do not have the newest grand totals to compare with this years but I imagine it is about the same. Things are slowing down. As to kids getting baptised, because so many kids were baptised back in the 50s and 60s and had left without getting DFd that in the early 70s it was allowed that persons could get REBAPTISED if the first one didn't take. Strange but true. The baptisms around here average about 15 years old. I know of 2 that were 10 years old baptised in the last few years. I got baptised at 16 and then only because it was impressed upon me by the C.O. that a boy was considered respnsible to God at 14 in Isreal, so what was my problem. In fact my "dedication" took place in the washroom 5 minutes before taking the plunge because in the baptism talk the speaker said I needed to do this before getting wet for it to count. I was under social pressure but didn't reocognize others were making my decisions for me.
-
Noumenon
I'd say the 3 main factors for the increase are simply, and in descending order of greatest influence IMO:
1 - September 11 scaring many back to some form of activity
2 - The new 15 mins rule
3 - The fact that most of the increase by far is occurring in third world countries. Families in these countries are usually bigger, ie have more children. These children grow up and many get baptized, get married, have more large families and thus the growth is exponential in these lands. The GB must be banking heavily on this aspect to keep the 'growth' levels up.
Speaking of the latter, I'd just love to know what percentage of new publishers and baptised ones are ones who have 'grown up' in the truth,ie, come in via their parents coat-tails, as opposed to what percentage come in straight from the 'world'. When one looks around the congregation, any congregation, one cannot help but be struck by how high the percentage is of those who came in via mummy and daddy. I remember thinking about this a few times while sitting at my former congregation feeling bored, and I was hard pressed to spot more than 2 publishers that were under the age of 30 that had not come in via family.
With all the child molestation bad publicity etc this 'service year' I expect a rather large drop come end September this year. Sad thing is that the GB will continue to remain totally pusillanimous about all the organisations faults and will keep their heads firmly buried in the sand until the 'growth' starts dropping off dramatically.
-
TheOldHippie
Noumenon, to your point "3 - The fact that most of the increase by far is occurring in third world countries. Families in these countries are usually bigger, ie have more children. These children grow up and many get baptized, get married, have more large families and thus the growth is exponential in these lands. The GB must be banking heavily on this aspect to keep the 'growth' levels up."
Not even only so, but in the Western world the growth is to alarge extent taking place among refugees, asylum seekers, third world population etc. Numerous congregations pop up that are Eritrean, Ethiopian, Russian, Serb, Albanian etc. - so if you would split the growth between "white" and "non-white" (brrrr, what a racist ........), it would ten times more strengthen your point.