If Scotland were to have a second IndyRef, and the result was the same as the first one, would you accept that result, or would you press for a third referendum?
Scotland should be able to have another referendum if it chooses, in principle, now or any time in the future. In reality a second referendum might be the last. That’s a recognition of the political reality, not some sort of promise. It’s a basic democratic principle that current voters can’t tie the hands of future voters, or prevent them from changing their mind on any issue.
But I don’t think many people appreciate what a high bar has been reached to get a referendum the first time and to get another one, if it happens. Basically it requires the majority in a parliament that was specifically designed not to produce a majority. The SNP defied the odds and got an overall majority in 2011 because their support was so high at the time. It had never happened before and it wasn’t expected to happen. That’s why we got the first referendum in the first place, it wasn’t some sort of gift from David Cameron, it was a recognition of the overwhelming democratic case for one.
Getting a majority in the Scottish parliament is very difficult to achieve because it is a proportional system. So if a majority in the parliament supports a second referendum then that is because the electorate has voted for parties on that basis in huge numbers (far higher percentages than elects the typical UK government for example) and that democratic vote should be respected. The idea that Scotland can keep voting for another referendum and Westminster keep saying you can’t have another one is likely to create significant ill feeling the longer it goes on. It’s a huge sign of weakness too that Westminster feels it would lose a referendum at this point and needs to resort to holding Scotland against its will. Surely nobody thinks that’s a good idea.
But then you get people saying “you can’t have referendums all the time”. Well I would agree that would be impractical. But a second referendum after 10 years is hardly “all the time”, even by LE’s definition of “regular basis”. Secondly, there have been huge breaches in the promises of the No campaign made during the first referendum, such as staying in the EU as part of the UK, and not meddling in devolved governance.
Quebec had two referendums and are done for the time being. The political reality is that a second referendum in Scotland would likely be conclusive for an even longer period of time, not because of some preset rule, but just because of the political reality of the situation.