Is AI going to change the world?

by Reasonfirst 54 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Reasonfirst

  Had lunch with a friend, whose a lecturer in the Accounting Dept. of one of Australia's best universities. He told me he expects to lose his job at some point in the next 5 years, as the Accounting dept, will disappear, as all accounting will be done by AI programs, so why teach it.

  If his fears are correct, that means that any profession that involves the mind, may one day face the same future. Well, I'm not so sure (as he was) that AI can change that much in our world. (And at near 90 y.o. it's unlikely to change much in my world)

  In our discussion we canvassed what sort of work may not be affected by rampant AI? I suggested anything that required manual work (i.e. working with your hands). So today, I tried to see if AI could change catering (an area, where I once worked as a designer). To my surprise, I found:

  https://www.scmp.com/video/lifestyle/3127966/robot-restaurant-machines-prepare-cook-and-serve-all-food-eatery-china

  and

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvr0Mz6srSo

  It's quite a stretch to say that AI controlled robots can replace humans, but it's a fascinating trend.

  Have your thought about these possibilities? i recall a discussion on this site some years ago that had strong arguments against AI.
• 

  TD

  If his fears are correct, that means that any profession that involves the mind, may one day face the same future.

  One day perhaps.

  In the near future, only jobs that can be distilled into algorithims are likely to be replaced.

  AI is not likely to replace Archtitects, Graphic Designers, Engineers, Surgeons, Attorneys, First Responders, Social Works, Chefs, Mechanics, etc., because despite the advances, AI is still not capable of analytical thinking, judgement, creativity, and innovation.
  
• 

  TonusOH

  If most labor is going to be done by robots, humans won't have to work.

  Except for the ones who design and build robots and program the AI.

  ...until they are replaced by robots.

  I think this is how the Matrix was actually born...
• 

  Anony Mous

  The thing is, accountants a long time ago could’ve been replaced by computer programmers, the problem is a shortage and the expense of programmers. Accountants, any dumbass with Excel can do that.

  This problem will remain, there are simply not enough people smart enough to program the AIs to take over accountants’ jobs and accountants aren’t valuable enough to invest to replace.

  As with computers, “AI” (current language and other prediction models) will increase productivity in all aspects of life, they won’t take over your job, but the accountant will no longer use Excel (as we know it today) like they no longer use tabulated paper or ticker tape calculators. Instead of having to write a formula in Excel, they will put in a sentence on what they want to do with the data. This will lead to a faster results, a slightly more replaceable accountant but increased error rates which someone up higher (a programmer) will then have to solve when they accumulate these documents. Things will change but they will largely remain the same.
• 

  slimboyfat

  I don’t see how AI won’t develop beyond human intelligence at some point.

  AI experts such as Geoffrey Hinton say they have been surprised how fast AI has developed in recent years and expect to see superhuman level intelligence in years rather than decades.

  Many who who have studied it for a long time such as Max Tegmark say that humans are not ready for superhuman AI and it will probably lead to extinction. He says he has a new son and wonders how old he will live to be before this happens.

  I’ve read quite a bit about this over the past few months and I don’t see much ground for optimism. Every answer you can think of, such as “we can just turn it off”, or “why would AI want to kill us anyway?” unfortunately have good counter arguments.

  In conclusion humans may go extinct because of AI within 10 years or so. The only ways I can see to avoid this include:

  1) humans voluntarily and unanimously agree worldwide not to develop AI with no exceptions anywhere

  2) there is a God who steps in and saves humans from themselves (as he reportedly did in the past at Babel)

  3) aliens with ability to control super intelligent AI save us

  4) there is a devastating worldwide war before AI reaches super intelligence and human technology is knocked back centuries

  5) the majority of experts in AI have are mistaken about how close we are to super intelligence

  6) super intelligence turns out unexpectedly to be automatically aligned to human goals and wellbeing

  In short I think humans are probably doomed in the short to medium term.

  Max Tegmark below tries to put a brave face on it saying that regulation may solve the problem. He has elsewhere acknowledged how hard that will be in practice and the trajectory so far of releasing AI is not encouraging. It needs to succeed everywhere and always. Any instance of super human intelligence surfacing is likely to lead to extinction. People have likened it to handing everyone on the planet a nuclear bomb and then relying on regulation and persuasion so that no one uses them.

  https://youtu.be/O9FX6b2ZE7g
  
• 

  slimboyfat

  Douglas Hofstadter reflecting on being wrong about the pace of development of artificial intelligence (he previously thought that super intelligent artificial intelligence was hundreds of years away):

  https://youtu.be/Ac-b6dRMSwY
  
• 

  Diogenesister

  I'm also very pessimistic Slim. I haven't watched any of your posted videos (but I intend to!)

  However my view is that, at best, AI will prioritise life on Earth over humanity. Viewing us as a threat to other forms of life and not worthy of our position as guardians.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Excellent long discussion of the short to medium term impacts of AI assuming that it doesn’t result in extinction in short order. Even if this more optimistic assessment is correct then human society is in for a very rough ride indeed.

  Major job losses from late 2024 onward. The 2024 presidential election highly disrupted by new technology and the inability to tell fact from fiction. People withdrawing from society either as a rejection of new technology (older people in general) or being utterly absorbed into it. (Younger people in general)

  https://youtu.be/Se91Pn3xxSs
  
• 

  HiddlesWife

  This is also why SAG-AFTRA [Screen Actors Guild-American Federation Of Television And Radio Artists] plus WGA [Writers' Guild Of America] are protesting nowadays. The AMPTP [Alliance Of Motion Picture and Television Producers] are endeavoring to use this technology so that they will not have to PAY actual human artists for their talents, skillsets, and profession. In fact, they want to use (and in most cases ILLEGALLY) the likeness of these professions, whether they are foreground/top billing or background/extras.

  IMPHO, modern technology can be good--but only up to a certain degree where it doesn't ensure damage to people's livelihood and quality of life. As the old saying/adage goes: "Too much of a good thing can not good for you!".
• 

  TonusOH

  AI will definitely impact content creation, everything from music to art to cinema, to video games.

  Right now, there supposedly exists AI that can mimic a voice based on only a few seconds of "listening" to a person's speech. So if you are making an animated film, you would no longer need to hire voice actors for dozens -or hundreds- of hours of reading lines. You might only need them for a few hours. The cost savings would be significant.

  And, once you have a large enough database of live recordings, how long would it take to program an AI to create new and unique voices and speech patterns? How long before voice actors would be unnecessary?

  And with graphics engines like Unreal 5.2, you are close to having photorealistic video footage that renders in real-time, with the ability to apply rotoscoped facial animation to any characters you create. Again, build a library of faces and use AI to create unique faces from that library. Now you don't need actors at all.

  Do the same with music or even scriptwriting. How long before movie studios produce endless streams of content with little to no input from humans, allowing them to produce "entertainment" with almost no up-front cost?