How many killed by the 5 Cholera pandemics during the 1800's?

by redpilltwice 14 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  redpilltwice

  You all know JWfacts (run by Paul Grundy). On this website, under “Did the Last days start 1914” ---> “Pestilence”, it says:“During the 1800's five Cholera pandemics killed around 100 million people.”

  There is no link to any source of info, so I emailed Paul and asked where I can verify that total number? I can't get any higher than tens of million using wiki, but I probably overlooked something somewhere
  

  I got an auto-reply. It partly said: "As much as I wish to respond personally to each message, I am unable to keep up with the volume of emails, and in particular some of the enquiries that require detailed responses."

  So anyone...can you please help me to verify this?
• 

  the truth is mine

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholera_outbreaks_and_pandemics

  Here is a link to a Wikipedia article. Wikipedia should not be used as your only source but it does list its sources that with a little investigation can lead to better resources.
• 

  Mephis

  David Arnold (prof at SOAS) suggests 40m died from cholera just in India from 1817 through 1950. ( http://www.amazon.com/Colonizing-Body-Medicine-Epidemic-Nineteenth-Century/dp/0520082958 ). 15m of those prior to 1867. So the number doesn't seem too unacceptable as a guesstimate for worldwide.

  Wiki is definitely shy a few numbers - eg 1866/7 seems to be missing figures for places like Britain and Prussia.
• 

  kaik

  I am not sure about the total counts for this epidemics, but it is generally known that in the 19th century every ten living person in Europe was infected by cholera and from which 1/4 had died in the first three epidemics. Consider world's population in the 1850 was about 1.5 billions, from which majority lived in East Asia and Europe. So even with that number it is possible that as much as 100 million could die in 100 years from just one type of disease.
  
• 

  Village Idiot

  I remember reading about the Cholera pandemics, with those figures, in one of the "apostate" books. I think, If I'm not mistaken, that it was Sign Of The Last Days - When? by Carl O. Jonsson, If you don't have that book it's highly recommended that you get it; it's a treasure trove of information tailored to rebut the Watchtower.

  The book included primary sources in the footnotes which might help you to track the original book that made the statement.
• 

  kaik

  In school we modeled cholera, Spanish flu, and other epidemics as a case studies for population dynamics and disease propagation. I remember that cholera in 1830's or 1860's infected every ten person in continental Europe. First epidemic had death rate about 40-50% and each subsequent epidemic was less lethal due improved care and sanitation. Third epidemic claimed less than 20% of the victims. But this was modeled on German, Prussia, and Austrian records. I only created a maps for Spanish flu in Baltimore area, due abundance of the records. I still think the estimated death toll would be between 35-45 millions in the 19th century alone. 100 millions maybe high shot, and could lump different outbreaks like yellow and typhoid fevers.
  
• 

  Mephis

  If you've got 15m or so deaths in India by 1867, China's population is 3 times that for that period? If it holds to scale, that's 60m deaths just in those two countries and the last third of the century and the rest of the world for all five pandemics to add in.
• 

  kaik

  Mephis, that is possible, but I think it is on the upper limit scale. If the world population reached 1.5 billions around 1860 and 10% of population was affected, you will get 150 millions people. If 1/3 had died that will leave 50 million death toll.
  
• 

  Mephis

  Chinese numbers would be very hazy for sure, how many would die in a population of 430m during a 2 year pandemic in 1820s? Or five years if you take alternative suggestion it ran 1817 through 1822?

  But the estimates for India place the European and North American figures in perspective. High population density, little in the way of health care. It's going to be grim.
• 

  kaik

  But also it is necessary to consider that pandemic like cholera did not hit entire country and every community. Even in Austrian Empire where outbreak of cholera is well documented due excellent bureaucracy of the Hapsburg monarchy, there were communities that were not affected. Bohemia down to Vienna were at that time one the most densely populated areas of Europe in 1830's and Vienna was the fourth largest city on this planet. The records indicated on the first outbreak that less than 1% of city population died in matters of several weeks, and cholera outbreak ended with arrival of deep freezing temperatures. In Prague in the same time period had more people infected and more had died, but the rate was 1.5% of total city population. However, Hungarian cholera epidemic involved almost 20% of population and every four of the infected had died.