Will JW.org die? Some argue "Yes!", others "No!"
Undisputed Fact No. 1:
There are no more large annual growth rates of JWs in Western countries, with several reporting close to 20 years of very slow growth and/or years of decrease.
For example, my homeland, New Zealand:
Average |
Memorial |
|
1995 |
12,573 |
25,626 |
2015 |
13,929 |
26,008 |
Meanwhile, over that two-decade period, a total of 7,893 (totalling close to 60% of current JWs) were baptized. Whilst the fit between baptisms and publishers cannot be pinpoint (given unbaptized publishers must be reporting witnessing time before bieng baptized, looking from the standpoint of two decades, we are left with a clear picture of membership decline despite close to 8,000 baptisms.
Undisputed Fact No. 2:
A solid core of adherents stick to religious groups long after decline sets in. Examples include the various off-shoots of Charles Taze Russell's milenialist teachings, Christadelphians and Exclusive Brethren.
So, "both" views have elements of truth in them:
Growth in the West will continue to slow but JW org in the West ain't disappearing anytime soon.