2017 Yearbook released

by bohm 117 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  oppostate

  I would not expect to see the huge jump from roughly 15,000 partakers in 2015 to well over 18,000 last year. Care to comment on this?

  I was a bit shocked to see a three thousand increase in one year.

  But, even more surprising is that many who started partaking in the immediate area congregations in Greater Boston shared stories of "inquiries" and plain persecution by hounders, more than a few have been DF'ed for apostasy due to believing in only one hope not two or they've become inactive and even DA'ed before the hounders got to them. If so many are going down in the local area, the numbers of folks becoming inactive or DA'ing nationally and worldwide must really be up there.
• 

  steve2

  Oppostate has added the following (in bold and italics to separate his comments from mine):

  But, even more surprising is that many who started partaking in the immediate area congregations in Greater Boston shared stories of "inquiries" and plain persecution by hounders, more than a few have been DF'ed for apostasy due to believing in only one hope not two or they've become inactive and even DA'ed before the hounders got to them. If so many are going down in the local area, the numbers of folks becoming inactive or DA'ing nationally and worldwide must really be up there.

  My response:

  This sounds extremely concerning if correct. I can grasp what "inquiries" consist of, but "plain persecution" has me baffled. Can you provide an example of such "persecution"? I am not being facetious in my request.

  You also say "more than a few have been DF'ed for apostasy due to believing in only one hope not two..." I'm not sure what this means in terms of the numbers officially counted as partakers. Does it mean the numbers actually partaking are even higher?

  I do not wish to discount any single instance of partakers suffering as a result of "inquiries" by elders; but again, this is at the level of anecdote. And the instanced numbers are very loose (e.g., how many is "many" or what exactly is "more than a few"? - important questions in the context of questioning the veracity of the annual report.

  In looking at that annual report, I can understand the urge to offer an opinion or make a guess - but it really would be better to frame responses as such rather than present them as "evidence" that something 'dishonest' is 'going down'. I'm not saying the numbers in the official report are scrupulously accurate. I just don't think that anecdotal accounts of what has been heard constitute evidence that the numbers in the report are fudged.

  None of my reply discounts the undoubted suffering by individuals "hounded" as a result of partaking of the emblems at the memorial. But seriously, what numbers are we looking at? Too often accounts of individuals appear to be the "best" quality of evidence for allegations of number fudging.

  As far as I am aware, no one has ever produced hard evidence that numbers in the annual reports are altered or "fudged". What would hard evidence be? Elders responsible for compiling a country's report coming forward to disclose that the numbers they submitted were subsequently altered for the report - or reported numbers in the report being at variance with numbers reported elsewhere, etc. And, looking at the current report, numbers from several countries don't look at all flattering for the JWs in those countries. If number fudging were occurring, the report compilers haven't been terribly consistent.
• 

  RodrigoGuerreiro

  @slimboyfat

  I notice two of the countries contributing the most to JW growth, Brazil and Angola, are Portuguese speaking. I wonder if there is a shortage of online and print material exposing JW history and practices in Portuguese? If so I wonder if this might be a gap to fill. If JW growth in those two countries halted there'd be little or no growth left overall.
  

  If you notice Portugal have another "zero growth". In Portugal the apostate community collaborates with a major tv channel on a prime time documentary which exposes the organization (it was the most viewed documentary of the the year).

  the explanation for the Brazil and Angola is simple... unfortunately they aren't a fully developed country where to be part of a cultish religion is highly stigmatized. On a recent political development on Brazil we saw the rise of a group of evangelicals politicians on the Brazilian government. Angola is very poor country with a lot of uneducated people with a strong Christian presence, so it's a "easy" territory for the org. You can fill up a Kingdom Hall with a bunch of kids only with the curiosity to saw some org lame video production.
• 

  shepherdless

  Hi sbf, I haven't read anything by David Voas. I looked up some of his articles, and they look really interesting. Unfortunately it seems you have to pay to read the full articles.

  I agree that it will be interesting to see how they handle decline. Some here argue it will be interpreted as a sign that the end is near. That might work for a short while. However, it seems to me that JW's generally struggle to justify why their religion is the one true one, these days, and one they seem to turn to is bandwagon fallacy (ie that 8 million others believe, then we must be right). It will be fascinating to see how they react if that bandwagon starts rolling in the wrong direction.
• 

  shepherdless

  Just an additional point, detailed results from last year's Australian census should be available in about April or May this year.

  These censuses occur every 5 years, and completion of censuses in Australia are compulsory. The "religious affiliation" section of the census is not compulsory, but most people fill it out anyway.

  In a post on another thread, I pointed out that the trend from the last 3 Aust censuses show lower growth than what Watchtower Yearbook publisher numbers for Australia suggest. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
• 

  slimboyfat

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/172862/british-sociologist-predicts-possible-collapse-jehovahs-witness-numbers?page=1

  I've got the book. I could send you a scan if you like.
• 

  steve2

  I look forward to seeing the results for the recent Australian census, which includes the question on religious affiliation.

  The New Zealand census includes a similar question.

  The trend in NZ in more recent census reports is about 20 percent more are endorsed as affiliated with the JWs than those counted as publishers - because it asks about affiliation not active participation. In addition, each child has that question (which parents answer). And, of course, those who are "inactive" but still believe JW organization is the "Truth" can also endorse affiliation.

  The interesting thing in NZ is that more people were affiliated with the JWs in 1996 than in the most recent census: From more than 19,000 in 1996 to just over 17,000 in 2013 - and for the first time in decades, the number affiliated with 7th-Day Adventists was greater than the number affiliated with JWs. Average publisher-numbers have squished around the high 13,000 for several years. This is laidback New Zealand not cross-the-fords-at-any-cost Zambia.

  Meanwhile, roughly 26,000 attend the yearly memorials in NZ- and have done so for several years. Man, what a lot of hangers-on this organisation attracts.
• 

  konceptual99

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/172862/british-sociologist-predicts-possible-collapse-jehovahs-witness-numbers?page=1
  I've got the book. I could send you a scan if you like.

  Very interesting thread SBF. Thanks for posting.
  
• 

  konceptual99

  You can fill up a Kingdom Hall with a bunch of kids only with the curiosity to saw some org lame video production.

  Which is what they were doing in North America and Europe 100 years ago with the Photo Drama of Creation.
  
  
• 

  shepherdless

  The trend in NZ in more recent census reports is about 20 percent more are endorsed as affiliated with the JWs than those counted as publishers - because it asks about affiliation not active participation. In addition, each child has that question (which parents answer). And, of course, those who are "inactive" but still believe JW organization is the "Truth" can also endorse affiliation.

  On another thread, I included a breakdown from the Aust census of JW affiliation vs age, in 5 year cohorts. If you subtract those in the 0 to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 cohorts, you get roughly the number of those who identified with the borg is roughly the same number as the publishers. As 10 to 15 year olds seem generally to be publishers, my guess would be that the number of people who believe but don't publish would be closer to 5%. That being said, I can't understand how they manage to get the numbers to the memorial attendance.

  ...and for the first time in decades, the number affiliated with 7th-Day Adventists was greater than the number affiliated with JWs...

  
  Same in Australia in 2011 census; SDA overtook JW. From memory, Mormons have overtaken JW's in Aust, as well.