Warwick sits on $70 billion?

by LaFrancia 20 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Journeyman
    Journeyman

    I think this was discussed exhaustively in at least one thread a while ago, but obviously it's a moving topic so it's bound to come back up from time-to-time.

    However, I agree with those who say that while $7bn sounds a massive amount of money to a single person (or a small business), it's actually pretty small beer in the scale of things for an international organisation, even a relatively small one like the JWs.

    Also, how much of that money is actually freely liquid and available for use, and how much is tied up? Just because you make X on a sale, doesn't mean it's all immediately available like a wad of bank notes in your hand.

    And how much are the legal fees, depreciation, and other legacy costs the org has? Not to mention - we never hear anything about their investments and how profitable (or not) those are likely to be.

    Court costs and judgements, freezes and restrictions, and also - potentially - loss of charitable status in various countries could soon eat away at the bottom line (and probably already is).

    Also, receipts from properties are a diminishing return if you can't keep building and selling at volume to keep it up, and the org now seems to be reaching a tipping point in their construction merry-go-round.

    Before COVID, they seemed to have a nice little cycle going of build/refurb-sell-build again, but eventually they will run out of easy Halls to sell, and their most recent high profile construction projects like the Argentinian and Italian branches, and even Ramapo, seem to have taken longer than usual to complete or are stalling.

    The biggest change seems to be a slump in the availability of free labour, as fewer of the R&F are willing or able to give up their time for the org. I think many are waking up to the way the org has been flipping properties, or at the very least they are simply tired and too busy with their own lives.

  • ThomasMore
    ThomasMore

    It's about what I expected, and some very good comments as well. By my estimations, the average value of their real estate was closer to $150K, which totals $10.5 BIL.

    No-Zombie - you are probably spot on, but WTC has a poor track record for market decisions going back notably to 2008 when they lost money in the derivatives market. I don't think that is necessarily the play by the new Irish Asset Management Corp though.

    Five years ago, WTC had all the KHs appraised. Appraisals are only valid for a short period so clearly they served more than one purpose. (1) It helped them prioritize the ones they intended to sell. (2) It helped them establish their gross worth so that they could negotiate for lower interest rates to meet monthly expenses since donations were decreasing steadily, practically crashing during Covid.

    I don't think they actually used them as collateral to trade against, but it is clear that in some cases, banks did own the building when ownership abruptly changed hands, indicating that a substantial equity loan was in place. The current criteria for a cong to keep their KH seems to include meeting a minimal financial donation each month. This suggests that the KH has been collateralized. One Cong that I am aware of, recently had their monthly "donation" raised by 1/3. They were unable to keep up and the KH was sold. I suspect that WTC was hungily eyeing it for sale and may have gotten an enticing offer that sealed the deal.

    Vidiot - your comment is powerful IMO. WTC has feared losing their tax status going back to the Jimmy Swaggart days when his organization was pursued by the IRS. Losing charitable status is THE way to bring WTC down. If they were forced to pay taxes in the U.S., they would dissolve faster than a packet of Splenda in hot water. Solving the national debt problem will eventually force the government to scrutinize pseudo-religions like WTC. It may be the untapped frontier for much needed revenue that saves (or stalls) the dollar from collapsing.

    JeffT - I would like to hear more about your thoughts on how many KHs may be collateralized. Can you weigh in?

    Journeyman - excellent points to consider! I think your thumb is on the pulse of WTC. I am no prophet, but I think that Ramapo is DOA based on what I hear from those in the know. It is now a placeholder for donations until it is isn't.

  • Gorb
    Gorb

    In Holland a KH does 500.000 to 1.000.000 euro.

    Gorby

  • Vidiot
    Vidiot
    ThomasMore - “…Solving the national debt problem will eventually force the government to scrutinize pseudo-religions like WTC…”

    They’re actually a legitimate candidate for that kind of scrutiny, for many reasons including the one I mentioned, but another one we may not have thought of…

    …that the expense individual governments may be covering to provide care for those recovering from religious trauma could be viewed as a financial burden which is no longer sustainable.

    🤔

  • Balaamsass2
    Balaamsass2

    A few years ago I took a stab at valuing Watchtower assets. I gave up once I realized how often Bethel lies on financial reports of every kind to everyone. The only accurate numbers are from government records of Property Sales.

    One of the straws that broke THIS camel's back was during an all Elders meeting at an assembly while the accounts report was being considered for announcements. I questioned the scriptural correctness (lying/fraud) of the C.O. s desire to announce bogus numbers from the platform (designed to show a shortfall so as to induce more contributions from the publishers) SILENCE as all the Elders in the Circuit stared at me as the COs and regional BC leaders burned with anger. He then asked for a show of hands of all those who agreed with the fraudulent annoucement..99% sheepishly raised their hands. (Such a thing would have NEVER occurred at my day job at a "WORLDLY" financial institution. (Why,? because it would = Jail).

    JWfacts.com is a well done website and the coverage of Watchtower finances is excellent. https://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/donations-money-solicitation.php

  • JeffT
    JeffT

    Some of you may recall that I'm a retired accountant, having done most of my work in real estate investment.

    A few years ago I took a stab at valuing Watchtower assets. I gave up once I realized how often Bethel lies on financial reports of every kind to everyone. The only accurate numbers are from government records of Property Sales.

    This comment is spot on. The publicly available financial statements are murky at best. The U S (probably where most of the money is) is very hesitant to go after religious organizations. It has happened in cases where it is blindingly obvious that something is wrong, but I won't hold my breath waiting for it.

  • Vidiot
    Vidiot

    Maybe “beta-test” on the WTS before moving on to bigger fish (cough*scientology*cough)…?

    😏

  • TonusOH
    TonusOH

    Isn't it better to monetize real estate than to sell it? Recurring income is much better than a one-shot payment.

    I guess that is a potential can of worms, though. Can a religious organization manage real estate without running into any regulatory issues? Are KHs lucrative enough, as long as the local congregations can keep up with payments?

  • ThomasMore
    ThomasMore

    TonusOH - I think WTC is doing everything they can to make KHs a reliable revenue stream - but it is still not enough. More are fading and the only "new" ones coming in are born-ins. Eventually they leave also. The outlook for the Org is grim.

    Then there is the occasional large settlement that must be dished out in cash. These seem to drive some of the targeted sales where the per/pub monthly expectation is raised beyond the reach of the cong. It is no coincidence that these KHs are worth more than the average. It should be a warning to any JW attending a KH that has a high net value. Eventually WTC may decide it is better to sell your KH, especially if contributions are falling below the limit.

    For the foreseeable future, most KHs will continue to be monthly revenue stream, but some will be sold when the need arises. WTC surely has a calculation for determining whether or not an immediate sale outweighs the monthly rent paid by the congregation.

    There are surely other considerations but Treasury NEVER shares any meaningful information with the rank n' file. They are the most insular dept in Bethel, never hitting the radar of anyone searching for information. If that dam ever breaks, it will be catastrophic, that's why Treasury Bethelites don't have to worry about being kicked to the curb. Even the smallest brain among them knows too much to risk having them spill the beans.

    The new Assets Management group will reduce the mission critical status of Treasury, at least where real estate is concerned. This group will keep tabs on every statistic for every congregation and kingdom hall.

  • ThomasMore
    ThomasMore

    There is some speculation that the new Irish Asset Management Corps are an attempt to shield WTC from litigation as they streamline the monies going into and out of the coffers.

    JeffT - can you comment on how their new scheme might work in this nanner? At first glance, these Corps don’t appear to be non-profits. What is the strategy if that is so? Are they divesting ALL $$ from WTC so that Bethels only get “donations” from the Asset Management Corps which would be tax deductible?

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