Is Russia Bluffing?

by Fisherman 39 Replies latest social current

• 

  TD

  Russian state television openly laments the fact that the world no longer fears them.

  Their equipment is mostly junk. Their soldiers are untrained and poorly supplied. The body armor Russia was touting a few years ago turned out to be hardened cardboard. They are still using the same tactics that NATO is equipped and trained to defeat, despite the spectacular failure of those tactics in the Gulf War. They are still dependent upon the west for critical components for all their weapons systems. Russia's MBT losses are approaching the half-way point, which is astounding. The SU-35's targeting pod has been dissected and decoded by both the U.S. and Britain, which is why they don't dare bring SU-57's into the theater for fear the same thing will happen.

  What else does Putin have, except the nuclear threat?
  
• 

  cofty

  Totally agree with TDs assessment.

  Putin foolishly assumed that the people of Ukraine would welcome his troops. He is a Eurasian nationalist ideologue.

  You don't have to love Zelensky to support Ukraine's right to territorial integrity. Why should they give up one yard of their country to a bully?

  Some people in this forum seem to be disciples of the Neville Chamberlain school of international relations.

  (as an aside I have had coffee in my house with NC's g.grandson)
• 

  Indoubtbigtime

  The mainstream media want you to believe Russia is weak and losing

  The truth is they have already beaten Ukraine. It’s only the West keep sending more troops and equipment that is keeping the beaten country still fighting.

  Russia has almost defeated the Nazis and destroyed all the bio labs

  if it wasn’t for the west keep sending more money and supplies then the Nazis would have been defeated by Russia
• 

  notsurewheretogo

  Invade country, declare states as your own, advise nukes if you take back states.

  Complete and utter bluff.

  UKraine territories inc Crimea will be back with Ukraine by the end of the year and Putin dead or "gone".
• 

  TonusOH

  NATO has no reason to change anything at this point. They can drain Russian resources and weaken it by sending money and equipment to Ukraine. I don't think anyone sees Zelensky as anything other than a useful prop, and Zelensky probably realizes that as long as he plays his part 'correctly', the money and equipment will keep flowing and he will probably keep his position whenever the war ends.

  As for nukes, it really depends on how fatalistic Putin or Russia is. There is not, in my opinion, any outcome of the use of nukes that does not hurt Russia significantly. Whether it is direct war, economic war, or some combination of the two, there is no scenario that ends with Russia as a winner. If they can hold the territory they have gained, they might be able to force peace negotiations after a long enough time, so that even NATO countries would twist Zelensky's arm and demand he accept. So for Putin, there is only one realistic option, which is to win the war.

  For Russia, there is one additional option- get rid of Putin and see what kind of deal they can get.
• 

  LoveUniHateExams

  For Russia, there is one additional option- get rid of Putin and see what kind of deal they can get - ok, but who would replace Putin as Russia's leader?

  You know there are people in the Kremlin who are more hawkish and nasty than Putin, right?
  
  
• 

  Indoubtbigtime

  Russia and China are far more powerful than many think, the UK and USA are struggling to match them.

  the king of the north Russia and their allies is certainly pushing the king of the South America and their Allies
• 

  Anony Mous

  @Sea Breeze: The Czech Republic still holds claim to various Slovakian areas. There are about 150,000 Slovaks living in the Czech Republic still where the areas haven't been ceded. Yes, there is a peace between the two, but so did Europe think that Czechoslovakia was peaceful.

  Besides that, you also have Russian-origin and the Roma people (not Romanian) that don't want anything to do with the Czech Republic or the EU (Roma are nomadic and to date fiercely independent). Being 'liberated' from the EU into their own little states would sound good to many Slovaks, Roma and other ethnic groups in the Balkan, and because the EU nor US leadership will cede any rights to date, those states will be more allied with Russia.

  Yes, most of the Czech Republic doesn't want anything to do with the war, but nobody wants war, it just becomes a reality when there is a combination of weak, corrupt leadership that is significantly removed from the people they purport to serve, which accounts for most of the EU and the Balkans.

  All Russia needs is a pretext to invade the portion they want to 'liberate' and within the EU there is plenty of pretext, not enough unity. Plenty of people on the outskirts of Russia and Europe have long histories of independence and losing a lot of people to fight off the Nazis, Napoleon and everyone that came before them. I think Putin understands that, the West doesn't. He wants to have trade relationships and entrench Russia into the global oil/gas trade, which has practically been forbidden by the EU.

  It's hubris to believe that people as diverse and independent as Roma, Catalonians and ethnic Russians will ever bend the knee to the EU and could be ruled like the German dictatorship the EU has become, especially when they take away the primary energy resources people need to survive and build wealth.
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  stan livedeath

  its a pity Russia and China cant slog it out, the rest of the world would reach for the popcorn.
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  Anony Mous

  @stan: Why would they do that? They have the West by the proverbial bollocks because the West is too weak to fend for itself.