Stagnation of JWs in Britain

by darkspilver 32 Replies latest jw friends

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  stan livedeath

  special pios were 150 hours a month in the 60's.
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  darkspilver

  steve2: Special Pioneers... Can anyone verify that?

  (Not dates of changes, just WT 'mentions')

  Watchtower February 15, 1957
  Page 115: It is a grand service wherein regular pioneers spend at least 100 hours a month preaching and special pioneers a minimum of 150 hours.

  Yearbook 1977
  Page 22: Special pioneer hours were reduced to 140 per month to help them to continue in the full-time service, to give them time to do shepherding work in the congregations and also to find some means of income, if this is necessary in their case

  Who Are Doing Jehovah’s Will Today? (Brochure) 2012
  Lesson 13 What Is a Pioneer?: Others are selected to serve as special pioneers in areas where the need for Kingdom proclaimers is greater, devoting 130 hours or more to the ministry each month.
  
  

  steve2: I acknowledge your need to draw this topic out darkspilver
  

  You asked for my comments. I appreciate you taking the time to read and comment on them.
  

  steve2: You also say, "I believe it is therefore a statistical fallacy to use 'peak publishers' - it is much better to use 'average publishers'... could you tell me exactly which statistical fallacy you are referring to when peak publishers are used?
  

  For the Annual Report (covering 1 September to 31 August), the WT is counting, not individual people, but rather the Report forms they submit each month, from the same group of people (ie not random people), and there is a very small increase/decrease over the year.

  The Annual Report, as printed in the Yearbook, is distilled from the Monthly Reports submitted by publishers - but remember.....

  1. When publishers forget to submit a Report, they give in a 'late' Report the next month and they get double or triple-counted (or more!);
  2. The 'peak' month is not a random month, it is pre-determined as being the end of the 'Service Year' in August, and it is, by far, significantly higher than ALL the other months, before and after;
  3. The only reason it is higher is because of the 'late' reporting for the 'Service Year' just finishing, and the extra effort put in to collect those late reports (see '1' above).

  I believe it is therefore statistically dishonest for the WT to use the 'Peak Publisher' number in the way they do as, in many cases, it gives a knowingly higher figure than what the reality is.

  I also think that even comparing like-for-like, peak-with-peak, year-to-year, is not good statistical practice.

  If you want a high 'peak' number, you encourage 'late' reporting (!), which would appear to be working against statistical ethics.

  The 13-year stretch in my OP started with the 2003 Service Year - therefore the examples below are of the number of publisher's reports submitted each month for the first two years: 2003 and 2004.
  

  
  

  

  
  

  NOTE: Admittedly, publishers in some countries are better at Reporting on-time: In 2003, Austria, with annual growth of 0%, reported an average of 20,148, and a peak of 20,331 - but then this causes a statistical problem when comparing 'peak publishers' country-by-country.
  
  
  
• 

  John Free

  I’m still trying to get over that Stanny did 100 HOURS a month banging on doors!!😂😂😂
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  steve2

  Thanks darkspilver. Yep I know that more than one monthly report can be included in the peak publishers tally especially with tardy reporting by some JWs, as per JW organization's own disclosures.

  Interesting that they continue to present peak publishers as the main number.
  
• 

  stan livedeath

  John Free9 minutes ago11 minutes ago

  I’m still trying to get over that Stanny did 100 HOURS a month banging on doors!!

  
  

  i'm afraid so. did it for 6 months when i was 16--then from 18 to 21. i was also a servant then. although i can say some of the hours i booked were actually spent in a snooker hall. or a bowling alley.

  actually--when you think about it--those specials had it easier than us regulars--we had to earn a living as well.---they were paid ! ( not a lot )
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  2+2=5

  I know others have mentioned this, but it’s my turn to say it.

  I don’t trust any stats the WT has reported on themselves for probably the last 10-15 years. I think back in the 90’s there were efforts maybe for accurate reprts and figures, but this current bunch are desperate and as crooked as hell. I would trust any GB member about as far as I could physically throw them....

  Honesty and truth will be the first casualties with religion.
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  John Free

  Jeez 100 hours a month, I did 70 for a couple of years, whatta waste of time moping around hopelessly knocking on doors- pretty sad life when you look back. Never had any secular ambition- that was snuffed out by the washtowel. Life is so much better now that I’m living for myself and daring to dream big.

  On the topic however I would add that although they play with the stats and fiddle the numbers, there’s one thing you can be sure- jws will always have to report their time! Without this reporting requirement the kingdom preaching work will grind to a halt!
• 

  Earnest

  slimboyfat : Yes and going back further I think pioneer hours were once 100 hours, and further back still, even more than that, maybe 120 or so.

  I can confirm that regular pioneer hours were 120 prior to the 1960's. I cannot find this in writing but it was mentioned by a brother who pioneered at that time.

  It must have been before the 1957 Watchtower cited by darkspilver above when regular pioneers spent at least 100 hours a month.
  
• 

  slimboyfat

  I think the fact they’ve reported increasing partaker numbers for around a decade is pretty surprising. And perhaps indicates overall honesty in the numbers. (So far)

  But I doubt they’ll keep publishing the numbers much longer.

  I used to love poring over the figures in the KM in the late 1990s. I lost interest in going on the ministry around the time they stopped publishing the detailed monthly figures.

  If they stop publishing the numbers, will JWs still be motivated to submit reports? If they stop requiring JWs to submit reports will they still go on the ministry? If JWs stop going on the ministry can the religion survive?

  Pull at one thread and perhaps the whole unravels.
• 

  Doubting Bro

  Just a thought, field service has very little success in actually making converts especially in first world countries. The whole purpose in those countries is to give members a sense of purpose, unity and keep them busy. If you were running a business based on production and looked at their success rate in making converts, you would definitely change the model. The amount of FS reported directly correlates to how spiritual a person is viewed and their standing in the congregation. The only way you can drop the requirement to report would be to replace it with some other measure.It honestly has nothing to do with making converts.