@TheListeners: Most of the polls on 538 right now are old, at least for the swing states, the "good" polls (rated above B) are several weeks either pre-convention or pre-Kenosha/Portland, the only solid polls are for non-swing states, they do have some polls that are rated B, B- or C which means lots of error, flawed methodology and bias.
Some of them are sourced from those ads you see sometimes "click here if you vote for Biden" - those kinds of polls.
The (A/A+) rated polls (Monmouth, Quinnipiac) for Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina has Trump virtually tied or at least in range of sampling error which is really bad for Biden. He needs a 5-10 point lead in battleground states, he doesn't have that.
Note that Biden is only up because his base support is virtually solid. He has a consistent 45-48% in the polls while Trump only has 40-45%, that gives Biden a small lead but historically insufficient to get over the incumbent. These are the "undecided" and "third party" votes and then there are some that "rather not change if it works for me", given the improvement in the economy, a lot of people fall in the latter category.
Solid Democrats will always vote for Biden, even though he's falling all over himself and stumbling through a very minimal amount of press coverage. The question is whether that will be enough, are independents and undecideds going to believe a candidate that has cancelled more events than he has shown up at? Can non-Democrats be convinced to vote for overtly racist policies, vote against their self-interest, vote for rioters and looters, vote for police defunding and changing the entire American history and culture through the 1619 project and other alternative histories.
