Canada's Numbers Declining-Worries Bethel

by Had Enough 46 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Had Enough

  Hi all:

  Man it's good to be home, relaxed and de-stressing right now! How many times today, I just wanted to say AAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHH!!!! at my circuit's one-day assembly. Yes I felt I had to go for families' sake but this has got to have been one of the most difficult times for me in the last several months, as I've learned so many more "real truths" from the web about the WTS.

  The brother covering the Watchtower study today frothed about the graph showing what a huge increase the WTS has seen since 1940. But a short while later a Canadian Bethel speaker brought an interesting fact about their concern for the lost pubs. in Canada since 1996.

  In 1996 the total pubs. in Canada was about 114,000. Add 15,000 baptized since then and factor in a 1% loss to death leaves you with about 124,000 total pubs.

  BUT our total pubs in February this year was only 106,000 to 108,000. That leaves 17-19,000 baptized pubs. have "walked away from the truth" as he put it since 1996.

  Has anyone done any calculations with the published figures in the yearly report over that time period for the whole world. I just thought it would be interesting to see just how many totally have been leaving each year, by using that formula.

  I don't have any of the WT volumes for those years and my CD only goes to 1995.

  Had Enough
  Whew!! my blood pressure is slowly lowering now. [8>]
• 

  Kismet

  Wow. So my timing was pretty much the same as 17,000 other people?? So much for feeling unique! LOL

  Who was your Bethel Speaker? I am surprised they are getting them to talk about this at Assemblies. Normally talk of decreases is discouraged.

  Enjoy your evening. De-tox from the event now!!

  Kismet
• 

  thinker

  This reminds me of something I read on another site. It said: "There are now more ex-JWs than active JWs." No actual figures or resources were given, so I'm wondering. Could it be true?
• 

  Had Enough

  Hi Kismet:

  The speaker was E.Funk. He had an annoying habit of repeating the same point or detail over several times in different words. And trying to drive home the point of his talk by asking at least 20 times during the hour, "what is the name of my talk?"

  Ya we were surprised too, to hear the figures gone into in such detail. So it just got me wondering what the overall total looks like.

  His point was to emphasize that Satan is undermining their faith with false worldly knowledge. Wow..could it be? [8>]
• 

  Had Enough

  Hi thinker:

  That's an interesting point too!!!

  Using the same formula from the beginning of reporting the yearly figures, of actual total publishers, add in the total baptized each year less 1% of that total to be factored in for deaths, and compare what that total should be, with what the total is now, should give a picture of how many have left the org. over the years. I'd like to see the result.

  Does anyone know when they started publishing the yearly figures for the public to see?

  Had Enough
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  Marvin Shilmer

  Factoring an annual death rate of 1%, worldwide the five service years of 1996-2000 show an unexplained loss of more than 570,000 publishers. The year of greatest loss was 1999. That year realized an unexplained statistical loss of almost 160,000 publishers.

  1996: 100,162
  1997: 138,430
  1998: 71,580
  1999: 158,070
  2000: 103,351

  Based upon the Watchtower Society’s published statistics and the same annual death rate of 1%, from 1960 though 2000 there were 1,871,228 publishers lost for reasons other than death.

  There are all sorts of statistical studies possible with data published by the Watchtower Society, but one of the more interesting statistics is this: Since 1960 the percentage of total publishers to world population has grown from .0268% to .0951%. Over the last 10 years this growth in ratio looks like this:

  1991: .0759%
  1992: .0787
  1993: .0811
  1994: .0837
  1995: .0870
  1996: .0896
  1997: .0916
  1998: .0936
  1999: .0942
  2000: .0951

  These statistics indicate that, from 1991 through 2000 the number of publishers increased more than the rate of birth by a margin of 1,262,737.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 

  Had Enough

  Hello Marvin:
  Thanks for your info...that's great!! and so quick!!

  The loss figure is quite staggering...yet the rate of growth of pubs. compared to the rate of birth, as larger, makes me wonder. What does this show to us about the WTS? Does it look like its slowing down because of fewer baptisms or a growing number of those leaving or is it growing as rapidly as they paint the picture? or what?

  For example: another factor that triggered me to think about this subject was the fact that there were no baptisms at the cir.assembly today, for the first time that I can remember.

  It's getting late and my mind is slow on the analysing right now.

  Had Enough
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  expatbrit

  Here are the twelve month baptism totals for Canada over the past couple of years. Each figure is the total of the twelve months ending in that month. The figures show a steady decline. Canada's rate of decrease should therefore continue.

  Aug 99 2,467
  Sep 99 2,457
  Oct 99 2,482
  Nov 99 2,374
  Dec 99 2,327
  Jan 00 2,365
  Feb 00 2,395
  Mar 00 2,363
  Apr 00 2,324
  May 00 2,345
  Jun 00 2,385
  Jul 00 2,357
  Aug 00 2,316
  Sep 00 2,320
  Oct 00 2,219
  Nov 00 2,198
  Dec 00 2,200
  Jan 01 2,198

  Expatbrit
• 

  XJWBill

  Randy Watters has a very detailed breakdown of 1988-2000 WT growth statistics at his excellent site:

  http://www.freeminds.org .

  Once you get there, scroll down till you see the statistics link and click on it.

  Bill

  "If we all loved one another as much as we say we love God, I reckon there wouldn't be as much meanness in the world as there is."--from the movie Resurrection (1979)
• 

  Had Enough

  Hi expatbrit:

  Thanks for those figures. Boy you guys are on the ball tonight!

  That steady decline shows the trend I thought was taking place.

  I have seen a chart someplace and saved it. Just have to try to locate it again. This chart if I remember correctly, showed comparisons of years in different catagories and different countries.

  Like Kismet said, it's surprising that they're pointing this loss out to the r&f. Perhaps it's a scare tactic to move them into doing more, being more "productive".

  Had Enough