Scientific, Credible Discovery - Earthquakes are set to increase in 2018

by ILoveTTATT2 16 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  It has already been published and presented in a geology conference:
  
  It has been discovered that the Earth´s rotation slows down a few milliseconds every so often, and when it slows down, about 5 years later there is a 5-year period where the frequency of large earthquakes around magnitude 7 or greater increases about 20-30%.
  
  So according to scientists, in 2018, around the tropical areas, we should expect around 20 major earthquakes, compared to the 15 average on a normal year.
  
  JW´s are likely to jump on this as "evidence" of the time of the end, and will probably be misquoted in a Watchtower publication sometime soon.
  
  Here are some news organizations covering the story:
  
  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-earthquakes
  https://qz.com/1133304/as-earths-rotation-slows-2018-could-see-a-spike-in-large-earthquakes/

  https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/881536/earthquake-prediction-mexico-richter-scale-ring-of-fire
  https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4946729/earthquake-increase-earth-rotation-roger-bilham-tropical-region-2018/

  Etc etc...
  
  Here is the scientific paper (which I can´t read but if someone has access to the PDF, could you please share)?
  
  http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074934/epdf?referrer_access_token=vbjkMgywttZOFHkv3APUpU4keas67K9QMdWULTWMo8OSvAsLEBfxHKk77yB6SFsJHcErrW6SWPzKuSQjVujLi_Iu4GpW3LHc8e988DzDvEc-5E-nIM3hd0BI_0wog1sqONPw4hESQbRWop_lp7uQIgnbyKSopgnVaTKA48pyb2loNaNvz5EhpaiaHa2Fika5y95LACwWxR1bRsY2kk1M282IspV2uJu5QSSSy2kdZuN57JYTp1H56-wBicE9ov6iPD93RNyKJXYbd3yKM7BJpA%3D%3D
  
  Here is the presentation to the Geological Society of America:

  https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2017AM/webprogram/Paper300667.html

  The two scientists who are in the paper are Roger Bilham and (Rebecca)? Bendick.
• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  On five occasions in the past century a 25-30% increase in annual numbers of Mw≥7 earthquakes has coincided with a slowing in the mean rotation velocity of the Earth, with a corresponding decrease at times when the length-of-day (LoD) is short. The correlation between Earth's angular deceleration (d[LoD]/dt) and global seismic productivity is yet more striking, and can be shown to precede seismicity by 5-6 years, permitting societies at risk from earthquakes an unexpected glimpse of future seismic hazard. The cause of Earth's variable rotation is the exchange of angular momentum between the solid and fluid Earth (atmospheres, oceans and outer core). Maximum LoD is preceded by an angular deceleration of the Earth by 6-8 years corresponding to a π/4 phase lag of the 24-33 year peak-to-peak period of multidecadal oscillations of Earth's rotation. We show delayed global seismic productivity is most pronounced at equatorial latitudes 10°N-30°S. Two mechanisms may be responsible: (1) decreased oblateness (a reduction in J2) that attends a slowing of Earth's rotation and (2) lithospheric overshoot, a process whereby the equatorial lithosphere sluggishly overrides the decelerating underlying mantle westward, much as a loose cannon slides upon the deck of a rolling ship. The observed relationship is unable to indicate precisely when and where these future earthquakes will occur, although we note that most of the additional Mw>7 earthquakes have historically occurred near the equator in the West and East Indies. A striking example is that since 1900 more than 80% of all M≥7 earthquakes on the eastern Caribbean plate boundary have occurred 5 years following a maximum deceleration (including the 2010 Haiti earthquake). Calculations show the asthenosphere to have an appropriate viscosity to account for the delay between deceleration and subduction zone seismicity, however, a geodetic test of the anticipated westward overshoot would be of utility. Whatever the mechanism, the 5-6 year advanced warning of increased seismic hazards afforded by the first derivative of the LoD is fortuitous, and has utility in disaster planning. The year 2017 marks six years following a deceleration episode that commenced in 2011, suggesting that the world has now entered a period of enhanced global seismic productivity with a duration of at least five years.

  So this is essentially a scientific breakthrough in that earthquakes might have patterns... and before, it was thought that they were completely, 100% random. This will help in being aware that 2018-2023 might be a time with more earthquakes.
• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  Ok... we´ll have to wait and see in 2018 to see if it holds.
  
  https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/does-earths-molten-core-power-earthquake-cycle-180967054/
  
• 

  road to nowhere

  SEE last days for sure this time
• 

  waton

  If milliseconds in variation of rotation time trigger more and bigger quakes, imagine what should have happened in Joshua's and Isaiah's day when the earth stopped and reversed it's spin. yarns well spun.
• 

  Crazyguy

  The number of quakes has gone up this year has it not? It seems that maybe they were off by a year? Am I wrong but Mexico, Iran and few other places have experienced 7.0 or greater earth quakes this year.
• 

  Searching

  I think it's wonderful that they've managed to figure this out. This will no doubt help in terms of disaster prevention & relief efforts, if we know when years will be particularly bad, and the regions that will be most affected.

  You are probably right that Watchtower will try to twist this, despite the fact that they've simply discovered a pattern, one that has been happening every what was it? Every 32 years or so?
• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  The number of quakes has gone up this year has it not? It seems that maybe they were off by a year? Am I wrong but Mexico, Iran and few other places have experienced 7.0 or greater earth quakes this year.

  This year has had A LOT LESS earthquakes 7.0 and up than usual. In fact, as of today, there's "only" been 7. The usual is 15 per year.
• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  I think it's wonderful that they've managed to figure this out. This will no doubt help in terms of disaster prevention & relief efforts, if we know when years will be particularly bad, and the regions that will be most affected.
  You are probably right that Watchtower will try to twist this, despite the fact that they've simply discovered a pattern, one that has been happening every what was it? Every 32 years or so?

  Exactly.
• 

  Crazyguy

  Thanks for the heads up Ilovettatt2.