How baptism rate at conventions relates to yearbook growth rate (Discussion)

by bohm 13 Replies latest jw friends

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  nonjwspouse

  However when conversion rates drop (i.e. most converts are descendants of JWs) the JW population will become more representative of the actual population (i.e. older). That means the death rate will increase and the fertility rate will drop. If this is true that means that even if the current conversion rate/ability to baptize and keep children in is maintained the resulting total growth may be lower than now.

  Bohm, since the PEW report states the JW have the lowest retention rate of all religions, then the hypothesis of more children of JWs leaving is accurate, plus adults also leaving or being disfellowshipped. Add into this the encouragement to remain childless and to focus on ministry, plus the discouragement of higher education. I'd say the death rate is not only representative of the total regular population, but even a pretty high % compared to regular population.
  
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  bohm

  nonjwspouse: I agree that (DF'ings, etc.) is a confounded, however I am not sure it would overturn the effect.. Let's say that in 1990 100'000 new converts (i.e. door-to-door converts and not children of witness) enter the witness at an average age of 30 and lets suppose that by year 2000 about 30'000 has left. This still leaves a net influx of 70'000 30-year-old in 1990 which will drag down the average age of the witness in the years to come and lead to a lower /effective/ mortality rate as long as this influx happens.

  Once the source of converts is removed (i.e. replacement happens by birth) the witness population will begin to closer resemble the average population and the mortality rate will go up -- leading to less growth or even stagnation despite the same conversion/birth/retention rate.

  If we assume a percentage of teenagers leave (never to be seen again) I think that effect is better understood as a lower "effective birth-rate". Of course I don't dispute there is some demographic skewing because people (presumably) preferentially leave at a given age and not when they are very old, however I think the above effect is there as long as we assume the source of new (fresh, door-to-door) converts is declining.
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  slimboyfat

  When I attended regularly (1996 to 2002) the number baptised was around 15 to 40 at district conventions and 0 to 15 at circuit assemblies.

  I doubt there is any way you can collect enough anecdotal information to provide any meaningful comparison with official figures. As others have pointed out, "total number of baptised JWs" is not a statistic that has ever been published anyway.

  What are you trying to work out?

  Are JW statistics generally reliable? Yes

  Have they made some mistakes and is there some evidence of falsification? Yes

  Nevertheless the official statistics are generally reliable.

  In any case I would argue that the single most important statistic for giving a picture of growth, vibrancy, or decline over the long term is the number of congregations. And the great advantage of this statistic is that it's very hard or impossible for JWs to falsify since congregation meetings are individually listed publicly.
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  JWdaughter

  They are playing with the congregations, with the consolidation and re-arranging that's going on. All the shuffling about probably has even long time elders getting a distorted view of the growth or lack thereof when they are making smaller language groups(so very few could make up a congregation in a given area) and then larger consolidated congregations to save money and sell off buildings.

  Why are people even showing up for the Memorial? I went to one years after I left and while the speaker was excellent, his presentation of the talk just reminded me of unusual it was. He spoke of things that sounded Christian instead of JW-in spite of the stupid JW stuff that couldn't be left out-like reminders not to eat at the lords evening meal and all. But seriously, the memorial is so weird. I can't imagine why any of it convinces a non born in to join or an apostate or df'd one to return.

  I have seen more than one hall used for 5-6 congregations (drive by's). My aunts hall had 6 congs that have since been consolidated to 3 (they had shrunk) and now that hall is being made redundant and they are moving to a couple of other halls. I think they may be playing with the numbers more than they will admit because I don't see how they are growing AT ALL.