10 Year Growth Chart

HiddenPimo

Here are some visuals to help show what is going on with the JW numbers game. I am not a numbers guy and there maybe a few errors (Info directly from Grand Total Pages on Jw.borg)

sir82

Interesting - 2015 was a really bad year, then things started improving.

Wasn't 2015 when they started JW Broadcasting?

For all the criticism it (rightfully) gets, it does seem to have at least contributed to the rebound.

Oh, and others have noted dozens if not hundreds of times on other threads - it is probably misleading to contrast "number baptized" vs. "publisher growth". There are many hundreds of thousands of "unbaptized publishers", and probably a significant portion of them never progress to baptism (mainly bored teenaged kids of JWs just counting the days until they can leave).

And even ignoring that, keep in mind that the "deficit" includes people leaving in any form - disfellowshipping, fading, and death.

DesirousOfChange

Peak Pubs is a fictitious number. Every pub that didn't turn in a field report 1/2 the time is given the opportunity to "catch them up" at the end of the service year, so Peak Pubs is always that Sept total that has Joe Deadbeat reporting 2 hours every month for the 6 months he had turned in zero. Average Pubs would have been a better picture, but still this indicates JW's have a 3.5% growth rate but a 2.3% attrition rate (incl deaths and defections), with a resulting in a true increase of only 1.2% annually which is the same as the annual global population growth. IOW, the only real increase they have is that of young JW's having babies.

I'm still a bit shocked that there is ANY kind of increase when it seems JW's are leaving in droves.

I wonder too, how many are "fake" publishers or just "putting in their time" to stay "in" for family and friends?

alanv

They are indeed leaving in droves, but only in the high access internet countries. Most increase comes from Africa and some South American countries. Looks like a huge number left this past year, but unfortunately also there was an increase in the baptisms. Thats not really surprising as there has been a big push by the org to get young kids dipped.

Half banana

2019 is interesting even though the number of baptisms is high. Of course baptism is compulsory now for children of witnesses, it is not a matter of private evaluation of the responsibilities involved. It is now primarily the parents choice since most new JWs are the offspring of witnesses-- and to have your kids dipped signals the spiritual status of the parents within the congregation.

For all the baptisms, the 2019 has the lowest growth and the highest deficit. So this is the JW "churn" where the numbers remain high but the personnel change--creating an even larger ex-JW population!!

The significance of this is the great Watchtower capacity to enlist new awestruck converts from Africa and South America who don't have the internet, as you say Alan^ but who have no knowledge of the history of the Watchtower's complete failure in their "Bible based" predictions.

slimboyfat

2014 was apparently good year and 2015 was a bad year, according to these figures.

I think it demonstrates, more than anything else, that the Peak Publishers figure is very volatile, so not to put to much emphasis on the results from a single year, but focus on true overall trend.

The increases are definitely getting smaller, especially if expressed as a percentage.

punkofnice

Alanv - They are indeed leaving in droves, but only in the high access internet countries. Most increase comes from Africa and some South American countries.

Leaving in droves is what I've experienced here in the UK.

If I went back to the dangerous cult, I wouldn't know half of the sheeple there anymore.

The 'growth(tm)' must either be made up or from somewhere else.

sir82

Indeed, "normal" JWs from relatively wealthy countries are in general leaving, and being replaced, and slightly more than replaced, by thousands of new recruits from very poor countries.

Result?

The numbers look decent, but contributions continue to dry up, hence the near constant drumbeat to give more, give more, give more, along with branch closings, less literature than ever before, and congregation consolidations allowing for the sale of Kingdom Halls.

alanv

Hi Punkofnice, Im from the uk as well and there just isnt any increase here. Also if we take Europe as a whiole that too, shows a great big zero. Its no wander when the JWs just sit or stand by their carts chatting to each other, or playing with their phones. Im not knocking it though, I think its great they just do that, means less and less people are entering the cult.

WTWizard

I wonder how many would be "in" if only those who, according to their own theology, would survive Armageddon. Out of those fake numbers, quite a few are lying or have someone lying on their behalf, with or without consent. Others are being forced, under threat of having their lives ruined, to turn in monthly time (fake or not). Remember, to survive Armageddon under their theology, one must be doing all they can (and not "reasonably"--absolutely) each month, and it has to be sincere. Also, they cannot be doing things that are questionable, or continue displaying a grudging attitude or wishing they could do things others can without thinking.

This means only those who are doing all they possibly can (reasonable or not), out of their free will and without any presumption of reward, are not longing for "things of the world", and are not practicing anything that might bring shame on the organization or joke-hova, and that genuinely believe the whole theology no matter what, should be counted. That would be a more accurate measure of how many will, according to their theology, be around. Granted, those who do major sins but are truly sorry (and open to joke-hova's curses) can still be among those numbers. But, I would estimate the true number to be closer to 800,000 (yes, only 6 figures) using those criteria.

10 Year Growth Chart

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