Besides crowd size, something else I noticed is the number of yard signs. I live in a hard core left community. For months, driving around town I saw way more Trump signs than Biden signs. Just in the last couple of weeks have the Biden signs been showing up. To be honest, the numbers are about equal but keep in mind I live in a leftist community. During past elections signs for Bush, McCain, or Romney were about as common as unicorns. Driving in the rural areas the signs indicate Biden will actually come in third behind Trump and Firewood for Sale.
Polls Vs. Crowds
by minimus 43 Replies latest jw friends
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Realbavman
I really don't trust the polls, especially after last election. All the mail ins are unprecedented which I think changes alot. I think this election will be close but we will just have to see how it adds up in the end.
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Realbavman
I will also mention I think there is a total realignment going on right now in US politics. The left and right are not what they use to be. I myself have voted alot for Dems in the past but have moved to Republicans in more recent history. Trump has changed some of this but there's more to it than that.
Dems have changed. I am visiting an area right now in a different region that has alot of old hippies in it. I see Biden signs but I also see alot of Trump signs. I have seen this in my home state as well. Libertarian leanings are what hippies align with more. These people vote more with Republicans now than they use to.
Democrats have become hippie wannabee not real hippies. Therefore, alot of the old hippie types really align more with the downhome conservative types. People who like taking care of themselves, garden, dislike forced vaccinations but believe in eating and living healthy.
In short Democrats are about more government and control in our personal lives and Republicans are about less government and less control in our lives.
This means some who use to speak of saving the world, peace, and etc. now just want to be left the hell alone.
Not to mention Trump has been awesome for manufacturing and construction jobs. Union workers prefer Trump. Maybe the leaders don't but the workers themselves do. Obama did nothing for NAFTA but Trump did something.
There are still lots of Biden supporters but I think predicting how this will all end is increasingly difficult!
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Phizzy
"Polls v Crowds" , going by what happened in our 2019 General Election here in the U.K, I do not think either of those two is a reliable indicator.
I am thinking that Trump is bound to win, too many vested interests want it to be so.
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smiddy3
Simon
Couldn't it mean the polls were way off? These are the same people who gave Hillary a 96% likelihood of victory.
Don`t the polls reflect who the majority of voters are leaning towards ? The will of the people ?
Whereas the Electoral College has no bearing whatsoever on the polls.?
So how can you honestly say the polls were way off ?
It`s the Electoral College who overode the will of the people . And gave the Presidency to Donald Trump .
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Davros
It`s the Electoral College who overode the will of the people . And gave the Presidency to Donald Trump
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Simon
Don`t the polls reflect who the majority of voters are leaning towards ? The will of the people ?
No, they are an incredibly small sampling, sometimes just a thousand people or fewer, who's views are then 'extrapolated' out to suggest the opinions of 150m.
It's incredibly difficult to do unbiased representative polling at the best of times. There are many factors that make it even more difficult in US politics, not the least of which is that many pollsters don't want unbiased results!
Whereas the Electoral College has no bearing whatsoever on the polls.?
Again, no it doesn't. The polls are all through away once the real poll (the election) happens. How does the electoral college affect polls without time travel?
So how can you honestly say the polls were way off ?
Because they predicted an entirely different outcome to what happened.
It`s the Electoral College who overode the will of the people . And gave the Presidency to Donald Trump .
There is not "will of the people" other than an election under clear and pre-defined rules. If you are referring to the "popular vote" then that is irrelevant because it's not what people campaign to win. If it was, both candidates would change how and where they campaign. As it happened, having a candidate go and campaign in a state she was going to win and then bleat about how she got so many votes there when the rules for winning is to win more areas shows that someone didn't run an effective campaign.
It's akin to running 100m faster than anyone else ... but the race being a 400m distance. You don't get a medal for running a different race to the one that the winner will be judged on.
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Funky
I always love those maps like the ones above, as if they show anything even remotely relevant to anything - those cornfields and prairies are quite red, aren't they?
Population is not perfectly evenly distributed geographically.
If you show results based on where actual people live, it's a wee bit different.
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Simon
I always love those maps like the ones above, as if they show anything even remotely relevant to anything - those cornfields and prairies are quite red, aren't they?
If you believe that isn't where the backbone and beating heart of America is, I have some cities full of starving people to show you.
The reason for the electoral map is to protect the low-population, but critically important, areas of the country from the idiots in the big cities with their big corruption and sleazy politics - the tyranny of the majority.
At the same time, it doesn't allow the majority to be held-hostage by that minority or their minority status wield undue power as happens with proportional representation systems.
The only reason some people don't like the system is because of the last election they just lost. But then no one could ever accuse them of not being short-sighted.