One thing we should accept is that the information about this virus and its effects onto populations is that its changes from one region to another, partly due to the variants that appear.
Statistical analysis has to be drawn from documented data which is not totally complete to the population at large, such as having the entire population tested once a week.
The data is clear though that close social interaction does cause a spread of the virus which some but few end up in a in ICU ward and some die from the causative symptoms of the virus.
As the cases increase many hospitals have to defer other medical needed help to work with people with the virus.
If you were a government official how would you handle this situation ?