I think both dubs and ex-dubs have a chronic failure to grasp the seasonality of Watchtower history and I believe this explains why we seldom have any kind of consensus forecasts about the direction of the Society, and why past predictions of what they would do, so often turn out wrong.
Consider the problem of predicting the future in general. Everyone living back in the late 1950’s that forecasters predicted that America’s future would be like Disney’s Tommorowland. The psychological experts at the time thought that youth would be well mannered and living in a wholesome culture, that there would be an end of racism and poverty, and steady economic progress for all. All these predictions were of course way off base. Not only did the experts miss the technological predictions, they missed the mood entirely of the coming era.
But why were they wrong? When the forecasters assumed the future would extrapolate the recent past, they expected that the next set of people in each phase of life would behave just like the current occupants. Futurists know now that roughly every two decades, there is a generational change introduced into society that effects the national mood up and down the age ladder. This top to bottom modification of the American lifecycle gives us a lot of information about why and how America shifted from a mood of consensus, complacency, and optimism to one that has a lot of argument, passion and turbulence. So, if we know what to look for, we can see the generational lineup making its effects felt in the Watchtower Society.
The topic and explanation of these generational types goes pretty deep, and I’m not sure how many people here are interested in reading up on the sociological dynamics but here is an excellent link that will allow you to explore the subject at length:
http://www.fourthturning.com/html/generations___archetypes.html
When I understood the effects of generational types on our culture in general, I interpolated the generational information as applied to the management of the Society. I immediately began to notice the cycles of behavior in the Society, and located where they are now in the pattern.
The Watchtower Society, as culture in general in the USA, has been going through a great unraveling cycle, soon to be followed by a great crisis cycle, which in turn leads to dynamic changes to fix the crisis. or something worse happens…
I therefore stand behind my earlier predictions of the changes in the preaching work.
Skipper