by Bad_Wolf 30 Replies latest jw friends
The law of large numbers would dictate that if you held 1000 lotteries, that the more lotteries that are held, the more the numbers will average out to an equilibrium.
Yes. Short term statistical anomalies do happen but in the long run it all tends towards the odds.
But the chances of any number being drawn next is identical.
Unless you have evidence of multiple lottery wins then you're just spouting nonsense.
I have pulled winning lottery numbers, found certain patterns, tested them against winning numbers, and going to do it for real now. But if another person using similar concepts who has won several times counts....(quite a few if you google multiple lottery winners)
First one here had a phd in statistics
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/How_lottery_legend_Joan_Ginther_used_odds_Uncle_Sam_to_win_millions.html
https://80sradio.iheart.com/featured/christie-james/content/2017-05-11-this-man-won-the-lottery-14-times-heres-his-secret/ this shows a many who won 14 times and another who won 7 times. (7 time video he is speaking similar to what I am saying, how odds increase when other numbers not used for a time)
And I looked it up, there are people who have won the lottery multiple times. And it seems they used very similar concepts and how odds do increase on these things. But I would not ever go past 'play money' too high of a risk. Investment and business is still the surest way to make money.
Yes. Short term statistical anomalies do happen but in the long run it all tends towards the odds.
But the chances of any number being drawn next is identical.
I have found otherwise, but I can't detail it without giving it away and I am intending to try it to my advantage. But maybe the multiple time lottery winners and them going on statistics and probabilities is enough to show that the chances do not always remain identical.
There is some truth to this.... This is not really related to odds. Yes we understand the chances of a single number being picked out of a pool of numbers is always the same. Even if a number has miraculously been picked 3 times in a row, it has the same exact chances of being picked again.
But like the OP said, this trend towards an equilibrium seems to somehow exist. In fact, in sports betting for example, the odds change slightly when a team has had a string of wins, and is "due" for a loss. There is not magical force behind this, just seems that most things around us operate on a cyclical basis.
But I'm going to do some lottery experiments
Lottery - the government's tax on the innumerate and the stupid.
Dear Bad Wolf,
A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep.
Every time you flip a coin its a 50% chance of it coming up one or the other. Does not matter how many times it comes up heads or tails. This is trying to find patterns where there are none. There is such a thing as random. When its not random you try to not create patterns and that is not random.
Every time you flip a coin its a 50% chance of it coming up one or the other. Does not matter how many times it comes up heads or tails. This is trying to find patterns where there are none. There is such a thing as random. When its not random you try to not create patterns and that is not random.
Okay I'll explain it as simply as possible. If you flip a coin one time, there is a 50% chance of heads or tails. As I have said, the more times it happens, the more an equalizing tries to be forced. So if you got heads 9 times in a row, you still think 50% chance of getting heads again. But the formula is (1/2)^10 There is a .09% chance of getting heads 10 times in a row. There is a .19% chance of heads 9 times in a row. 1 head in a row, 50% chance, 2 = 25% 3=12.5% 4=6.25 5=3.12, etc. So if heads actually came up 9 times in a row, you know there is .09% chance of it happening 10 times in a row so even though a single flip is 50%, there is .09% chance that it would happen 10 times in a row and higher likely hood a tails will show up to break that streak. And that's called having your luck run out, if a gambler got something against bad odds and kept pushing it.
Yep, as Cofty said - you should have paid attention in class.
BadWolf. You are making the idiot-gamblers mistake of seeing something and thinking the cause is as claimed.
There are not enough data points and just because someone won, doesn't mean there was any plan to it. It just happens that you never hear from the many more similar schmucks with the same plan who happened to lose that week. Newsflash: everyone thinks their ticket is going to win or else why buy it?!
Here's another example to show how you can be fooled. Suppose I write to you with a stock prediction. This stock is going to go up. Just watch.
You check and wow, it went up!
Next week I write to you again this time with a stock that will go down. OMG, it does, exactly as predicted!
I do this 10 times over 10 weeks and have a 100% stock prediction record.
Wouldn't you hand over your life savings so I could invest it for you? You'd be crazy not to ... right?
Oops, sorry, that should have been "you'd be crazy to". Because it's all just random.
How so when you saw the results?
Because you didn't look at the failures. I start off mailing 2^10 people, every week I re-email the half that I was correct on. It doesn't matter if it's stocks or coin-flips, it's flawed logic to work backward from the only successful result.
It's self-selecting because you are only looking at the successes and never the failures and more importantly the cost of the failures.
No different than doubling your bet each time to win all the money back. There just isn't enough money.
