ratio of active to gone

kgfreeperson

If there are 6 million active baptised JWs in the world, how many inactive, df'd or da'd JWs do you think there are? What effect do you think this number of not-active-for-whatever-reason has on the potential growth of JW?

xjw_b12

how many inactive, df'd or da'd JWs do you think there are?

I'd estimate 1 million,

with about half of them on this board.

Seriously, about the 1 million I mean.

kgfreeperson

Really? I've been building the perception (obviously false) that there might be two or three times as many who have left or been thrown out as those who are active. Or do mean 1 million in the US?

xjw_b12

kg I'm guessing that is the number of people who consider themselves as such.

Truth be known, the way the WTBTS "collects and tabulates" (and you've read first hand reports here) their data, do you really think there are 6 million " active" witnesses.

Aztec

If you took my family as an example the largest amount of baptized and unbaptized publishers we had at one time was12 but over time due to some coming and some going we had 21. Currently there are only 6. Only one of those is gone due to death, the rest of us are df'd, da'd or just plain fade aways. I'm thinking my family is either very rebellious or very bright...LOL! So in my family there is a ratio of 14:7, twice as many gone as have stayed.

~Aztec

RunningMan

Well, about 10 million more people attend the memorial than are active Witnesses. Some of that 10 million are interested and studying (The society counts around 5 millions studies, but many of these are with family). Some are interested but not studying. Some are fringe members who are not active. Some are inactives who go to keep peace with family.

According to the Society's numbers, about 1% are disfellowshipped every year. So, you would think that the number of disfellowshipped persons in existance would be 20-50% of the number of Witnesses.

As well, many people fade away without ever being disfellowshipped, like me. Many youth leave the organization without ever having been baptised. Personally, I think this number is much larger than the number of df'd ones.

So, in Western lands, were apathy has set in, there are likely as many or more former Witnesses as current Witnesses. In developing countries where the membership has not matured as much, and the work is newer, the fringe will be smaller.

freedom96

I have heard that the amount of people that have left is about 2 times the amount that are in. So about 12,000,000 people are not active or have been kicked out.

MacHislopp

Hello kgfreeperson,

Thanks for the topic.

Please take a look at the material below, that I did post

sometime ago, concerning the official WTBS Inc.'s figures for the total number of : ? active proponents of Kingdom rule ? alias publishers. Please do keep well in mind their claim, published in a recent Watchtower :

The Watchtower 15 th January, 2001 page 17 3:

Of course , the number of those associated with Jehovahs Witnesses is not a criterion for determining if they enjoy

divine favor, nor do statistics impress God.

Let's take a look at these figures, for the last

40 years, well from the the year 1962.

Here we go:

*** 1961 no. of average publishers???.884,587

*** N. of baptisms 1962-2002 ????...8,312,330

***Maximum (possible) total of

of baptized Ws in the year 2002?....9,196,917 (a)

==========

***Peak of Publishers for the

year 2002??6,304,645 (b)

- in this case (b) where are the

missing 2,892,272 publishers???

***Average of Publishers for the

year 2002 ..6,048,600

- in this case where are the

missing 3,148,317 publishers???

Again, some more interesting questions for the

'defenders ' of the mighty WTBS Inc. -

Of course we could deduct a maximum of 1%

to account for disf., diss. and the ?dead.

Still, many hundred of thousands ?will be missing.

That?s all for now, greetings

J.C.MacHislopp

"Historia est testis temporum, lux veritatis,

vita memoriae, magistra vitae, nuntia vetustatis".

(Ciceron e , De Oratore, II)

RunningMan

That's the type of analysis I was thinking of, JC. But, don't forget the many many persons who never got baptized - the Witness kids, the ones who studied and progressed but then gave it up. They were still officially "Witnesses" because they submitted a report. Likewise, many of the current 6 million are not yet baptized.

So, I believe that it is safe to say that there are more former Witnesses in the world than there are Witnesses.

Aztec

One more thing to take into account are those that are mentally out but cannot leave due to fear of family reprisals. I'm sure that's not a humongous number but it puts another little chink into the accuracy of the WTS statistics. Just a thought.

~Aztec

ratio of active to gone

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