Joker said the following recently in his 2003 JW Worldwide report...
Almost every country saw an increase in Bible Studies. From last year, tens of thousands more in the United States, and 10,000 in the UK. As expected, Bible studies rose to 5,726,509 (up 7.9%).
Should we take this to be a good sign of potential growth?
For anyone that can go back this far, when the Live Forever book was released in 1982, there was no special time limit (correct me if I'm wrong) on going through this book with a Bible student. Most studies took roughly a year, sometimes longer to go through this book.
When the Society released the Knowledge book in 1995, it was said from the assembly, that as the remaining time left for this system is so short, we should consider covering the material in this book in no more than 6 months. A year later, in 1996, the 'What Does God Require' brochure was released, which is now the primary method of indoctrination for new bible students.
Nearly the best part of a decade later, what do the results show for Bible studies?
Let's look at the figures.
Joker's report says that there were a peak of 5.7 million Bible studies. Looking at my 2003 yearbook, there were 5.3 million Bible studies. The service report as you know runs from 1 Sep to 31 Aug. Assuming that each Bible student took a year to go through the Knowledge book and got baptized, you would have had a peak of 11.7 million active Jehovah's Witnesses.
Instead, you have a 2.2% increase and more Bible studies!!!
Even if you account for just 50% of 2002 service year's bible students getting baptized, you should realistically have 9 million JW's.
With 5.7 million Bible studies for the 2003 service year, one can only wonder what on earth there Bible teachers are telling them.
How about another way...
If it took 1 year to decide whether a bible student wanted to commit to the truth or not, theoretically, there should not be 5.7 million Bible stduies. It's just not possible.
The Society have released a few hints in recent issues of the WT, that many Bible students are 'holding back' from getting baptised.
5.7 million Bible studies is not a good sign - it's a disaster.
There's no way that you could consistently have so many people studying the Bible year after year, with that number getting ever higher, and yet the actual number of JW's increases by only 100,000+.