Aust Census Data shows decrease while Yearbook shows increase

by shepherdless 25 Replies latest watchtower scandals

• 

  jwfacts

  Here are a couple of graphs that highlight what is happening.

  

  This shows how much Jehovah's Witnesses are lagging behind population growth.

  

  The second graph shows that the Watchtower is reporting some growth over a 20 year period, whereas the census is not.

  As SBF points out, there are a number of reasons. One is the ability to report less time (ie 15min per month). The other is that inactive ones are less likely to still believe it is the truth and claim to be JWs on the census, due to the growth of information on the internet over that time.
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  slimboyfat

  To complicate matters further: it's also possible that there are a few JWs who are counted as publishers because they submit reports but who, for one reason or another, don't describe themselves as JWs on the census. This might be because they don't want to identify themselves as JWs to the authorities for paranoid reasons, or more commonly because they don't believe in JWs any more and only adhere for social reasons. This may not be a very large group but is probably growing in number, so may to a small extent explain the falling census numbers relative to publisher numbers. JWs "voting with their census statement" as it were.
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  slimboyfat

  Canadian figures for comparison:

  1991 - 168,000 (census)

  2001 - 154,750 (census)

  2011 - 137.775 (census)

  I don't have the yearbook numbers handy but I think it shows a small increase in publishers over the same period.

  Sources:

  http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/jehovahs-witnesses/

  http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/start
  
• 

  jwfacts

  a few JWs who are counted as publishers because they submit reports but who, for one reason or another, don't describe themselves as JWs on the census ... because they don't believe in JWs any more and only adhere for social reasons.
  

  That was me in the 2001 Aus census.
• 

  slimboyfat

  And me in 2001 in Britain in fact!

  Although strangely enough I reverted to describing myself as JW in 2011.
• 

  shepherdless

  Thanks everyone for comments. I kept thinking I must have made a mistake extracting the data, because I was not expecting a fall at all, let alone 3.5%.

  What would be really fascinating would be an age profile of JWs from the latest data if possible. I predict that the average age of JWs is climbing rapidly.

  Yes I am keen to extract this as well. It might have to wait until tomorrow, though.

  steve2: Yes, I would expect whatever trends are occurring in Aust would be occurring in NZ as well, given the close cultural ties. Looking forward to seeing your data.

  I will be back with more data when I get the chance.
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  stuckinarut2

  Great thread!

  Thanks for starting it!
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  slimboyfat

  The numbers in 2016 could have been worse actually, when you consider it was probably at the height of the Australia Royal Commision coverage, plus all the cutbacks and closures being announced from WT headquarters. I find the Canadian data more startling as it shows significant, sustained decline.

  It can't be long until even WT statistics begin to show sustained declining publisher and congregation numbers. But will they continue publishing the numbers when decline sets in?
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  jwfacts

  Sheperdless - thank you for the information. I have not seen the break down by age group before, and have used your data to update the page at http://jehovah.net.au/of-interest/australian-jehovah-s-witness-statistics.
• 

  Earnest

  slimboyfat :

  Canadian figures for comparison:

  1991 - 168,000 (census)

  2001 - 154,750 (census)

  2011 - 137.775 (census)

  I don't have the yearbook numbers handy but I think it shows a small increase in publishers over the same period.

  The yearbook numbers for Canada are :

  1991 - 105,064 (peak publishers)

  2001 - 110,818 (peak publishers) 5.48% increase on 1991
  

  2011 - 113,989 (peak publishers) 2.86% increase on 2001