My fear is he woke them to never let that happen again. Witness the insane efforts to banish him
My Prediction: Trump Wins Big
by minimus 193 Replies latest jw friends
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Mr.Finkelstein
Somehow I dont think we need to worry about that RTN. if Trump loses in November his political career will probably be over for him and he'll just return to his business practice.
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TheListener
The polls show biden much farther ahead than clinton ever was in several swingstates. I just saw a Fox news poll that showed this today and a Rasmussen poll from like yesterday or so that showed this too.
I think that Trump is in very real trouble and that moderates and undecided (if there are any) aren't breaking his way.
The 2016 polls were actually pretty accurate by my recollection. Nationally they showed clinton ahead and they turned out right. State wise they showed the race within the margin of error and again they were right.
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Simon
The 2016 polls were actually pretty accurate by my recollection
I don't think I've heard anyone claim that 2016 polling was "pretty accurate".
They had Clinton at 98% probability of winning. They were way off. I suspect with the violence openly targeting Trump supporters that someone would be crazy to admit to a "pollster" (who knows if they really are) who they are voting for.
People make their real choice at the ballot box - that's the only poll that matters.
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Finkelstein
One of the most discouraging signs for Republicans is this: if polls are as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden would still win the election by a comfortable margin, according to the Times, which gives Biden 319 electoral votes under the hypothetical polling error. Only 270 electoral votes are needed to win.
For those keeping track: Biden’s lead right now is significantly wider than Hillary Clinton’s was at this time in 2016, when she held a 5.6-point advantage over Trump.
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TheListener
Probability of winning isn't a poll - it's an opinion based on information. The information can be accurate and opinion can be waaaay off.
The actual polls, on average, weren't that far off from correct. Although I'm sure there were some poorly conducted polls that were outliers on either side.
What's good is that a simple checking of polling averages in the swingstates and nationally in 2016 along with the actual vote counts clears this up pretty quickly
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TheListener
Here's a couple articles I thought were interesting:
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right - The Hill 1/19/17
It Wasn't the Polls That Missed, It Was the Pundits - Realclearpolitics 11/12/16
538 has a couple articles bit I didn't re-search for them
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Phizzy
I don't see a win for Trump being done fairly or democratically, I see that when the first Votes are counted he may in fact come out the Winner. The next day, Postal Votes are to be counted, the majority of these could well be for Biden, and then would give him the overall win, but the postal Votes will be discredited, and then burned.
A challenge can be mounted in the Supreme Court, now heavily weighted in favour of Trump, but anyway, too late once the postal Votes are gone.
A possible Scenario ? We shall have to wait and see.
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minimus
I still say Trump will win big!
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Clarkey
Naa... Biden will win small
The Trump era is over on Nov.3