Much has been said on this forum about the reasons for the JW lack of growth in Western lands. Numerous explanations have been put forward for this and for the future prospects of the organization.
But, above all else, I believe that there is one overriding reason behind it all. And, it is a reason that will continue to eat away at them until they either address it through reformation, or collapse under its weight.
It is chronology. Chronology is the foundation on which their most unique and identifying doctrines are built ? 607, 1914, the time of the end, Christ?s presence, etc.
And, their chronology is as old and decrepit as their leadership. When I was young, 1914 was only 50 or 60 years prior. It was a credible date for the beginning of the modern era. Many people could remember their lifestyle of the prior century.
But, today, 1914 is now almost a century old. No one considers 1914 as being within the modern era anymore. No one is old enough to wistfully look back at pre-WWI life. It is no longer a credible beginning point for the time of the end.
We have already seen them back away from the generation doctrine. As for the future, they have two options ? back away from chronology entirely, becoming more mainstream, or rewrite the chronology with a new set of dates. Both options will have serious fallout. But, if they fail to address this problem, their malaise will continue and deepen.
Add to this, the easy information exchange of the internet, the uneventful passing of the millennium, the general waning of apocalyptic sentiment, and the overall stability of world events, and you have a recipe for a very unhappy apocalyptic sect. I believe that the Society knows where it needs to take its doctrines, but I don?t think they can survive the trip. Unfortunately for them, they have adopted leadership by committee, and their committee consists only of yes-men. They have no charismatic leaders, and if they do, they are mired in the sesspool of immovability committees. They react only to crises.