How does it keep going?

by onintwo 13 Replies latest jw friends

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  onintwo

  Ok, we know that field service, for the most part is unproductive. That is, very few newly baptised JW's are from converts. Right? That means that most dubs make babies, indoctrinate them, and they become dubs.

  Does anyone know what the approximate percentage of dub kids stay in the "troof"? At least long enough to make little dubs? In my own case it was only one in three.

  So if two dubs (my former wife and I) made only one dub, and she marries and has similar "success", doesn't that signal the eventual end of the chain? Just wondering.....

  Onintwo
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  gitasatsangha

  If one in three children become witnesses, then witnesses couples must produce an average of six children to keep the numbers steady. But that's really not the whole picture. There's always a quick turnaround of many who come in, and leave quickly. Then there are the third-world and old warsaw pact countries where they still pull in the new numbers. I imagine Bethel salivates at the thought of open operations inside China.

  Personally I think they probably alter their records. None of the Halls I was ever in showed much or growth over a two decade period. That's not a real wide analysis by any stretch, but others have noticed the same thing (at least in English speaking congos).
• 

  rekless

  I had four children and only one remains. I quit, my wife died. 1 out of seven.
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  eyeslice

  The Society will continue to struggle in the west. Growth has been negative or zero at best.

  Whilst, years ago a typical circuit of 1,500 publishers used to get approx 16 to 20 baptism candidates per circuit assembly, now it is more like 2 to 6, of which 2 thirds will be raised in the truth.

  Agree with comments about third world countries - a target area for growth.
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  Scully

  Here are some quotes from an oldie-but-goodie thread from a much missed former poster, Maximus:

  JW Kids Leave the Organization: Facts

  The latest inside U.S. figures reveal that 86% of JW children leave the fold, with some 29% who eventually come back for reasons of family ties, most never "reaching out." That means over HALF leave permanently. These figures have been virtually the same for a number of years now. Well known is the fact that many kids lead a double life; that is, they put on a Witness face while attempting to live more normally away from scrutiny.

  In its usual truthful fashion, the Watchtower says: "There are hundreds of thousands of young ones who serve Jehovah happily ... Why, then, do other young ones leave?" Uh, that's over eight out of ten, remember?

  and other posters responded:

  This elder?s experience: 99.9%, or more, lead double lives to some extent. Ultimately more than 60% leave the organization, often with most of their immediate family.

  In the 1980's, a CO visiting our congregation gave the figure that one out of eight kids [remains in] the Witnesses. He didn't say where he got them, but that figures out to about 88% leave - VERY nearly your figure.

  What we found that was interesting, was that my wife and I were talking about that afterward, and remembered the congregations we grew up in in the 1960's. And damned if it didn't come out to exactly one out of eight kids that we grew up with stayed with the Org.

  So I would say that your experience of half a century is similar to my somewhat shorter one - the vast majority of kids leave the Witnesses. I'm reminded what an elder in a local, reclusive cult in my home area told me. I asked him about how many of the young people raised in the group stay with it. He told me that his group would consider it the worst kind of failure if many of the children left. His point was that if the children raised in the group struggled to see it as having a superior way of life and being the truth, what chance was there that outsiders could be convinced?

  It's an excellent thread, well worth checking out.

  Love, Scully
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  Dansk

  I was the KH servant and tended to be on duty a lot - because people were forever not turning up. I regularly did the count and, out of a congregation of so-called 100+ publishers, we frequently had less than 40 in attendance. When one considers that six of those heads were from my own family - our four children being brought up by my wife and I in the truth lie - and there were other children in the hall one can see how precarious things are for the Watchtower, at least in England (DON'T YA JUST LOVE IT!!).

  My wife, two sons and I have all exited, leaving just our two daughters (who need their heads feeling) still in. That's 4 out of 6 of us have left. I strongly believe English-speaking congregations are heading for a crash (already heard of a few being closed down), so the Borg has to concentrate its operations on the gullible African, Asian and poorer European countries. It still needs its fix (FUNDS) to survive and gets this from those that can afford it least!

  This forum has had a MAJOR impact on many leaving Watchtower - myself included - and things are going to get worse for Watchtower. It gives the impression that things are going along as normal - but they aren't! The foundations of Watchtower are crumbling and they can build as many new buildings as they want. At the end of the day they're most likely going to be taken over as office blocks or apartments, sold off by the Borg in order to pay off all their court costs as more and more law suits are brought against them

  Altogether now "Happy Days are here again........."

  Ian - So glad to be able to see the crashing of Watchtower!
• 

  Hunyadi

  I have 3 kids raised thus far in the "troof", and only one still shows a real interest in going to the meetings of her own volition. I talk to her about the NGO thing, and other issues, and I can see it is opening her eyes . . . we will see.

  Corvin
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  Nathan Natas

  During the Rutherford and Knorr/Franz years, the organization was interested, not simply in numerical growth, but in REVENUE growth, and kids are a major impediment to pioneering. Don't lose track of the fact that the "ministry" is in effect, the "cover story" for their sales.

  How many millions of publications does the WTS print annually? While "some brothers" may give the literature away for free, you can bet that the WTS is getting paid in full for their production. Production performed by slaves volunteers in tax free "religious" properties does not have to have a huge profit margin to be very successful. The Watchtower certainly isn't running hospitals or any other humanitarian service with their income - OH NO! "The Preaching" is the appropriate work for this time of the end.

  Anyway, the WTS during it's last 90 years has discouraged childbearing to greater or lesser degrees, all justified by the urgency of these last days. They certainly have never ENCOURAGED childbearing.

  Other organizations (LDS for example, the Mormons) are much more family oriented and also encourage education and wholesome activities for family members, unlike the WTS.

  The WTS has always seen poverty, ignorance and fear as their ideal breeding ground - just like other religions. What the WTS didn't count on was the advent - not of an invisible spirit king - but of an invisible yet very real worldwide cafe called "the internet." The internet and this discussion board have done a lot to spread the truth about "the trooth?."

  The WTS may be salivating over the possibilites that are offered by China, but before the WTS gets a good grip on China, the internet will get an even stronger grip, and WTS exposes will be made available in the original English and translated into other tongues.

  Wherever the standard of living is climbing and the prospect of peace is growing, people will find they do not need pie-in-the-sky promises of "paradise any day now," especially when the message is delivered by a bunch of sociopaths who claim to speak for god.
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  blondie

  How does it keep going?

  Most of us posting here are from developed countries.

  Hispanic speaking areas in these countries and Hispanic speaking countries, African countries and countries recently "freed" from governments that banned JWs are the areas where this is a boom in converts to the WTS. A visiting CO mentioned to the BOE that if it weren't for these increases, things would have flatlined or decreased. But these areas will be saturated before long just as happened in Japan.

  Blondie
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  gitasatsangha

  The WTS may be salivating over the possibilites that are offered by China, but before the WTS gets a good grip on China, the internet will get an even stronger grip, and WTS exposes will be made available in the original English and translated into other tongues.

  There is a lot of internet usage in China, though from what I understand it may be somewhat censored. Still I don't think the Witnesses will find a very receptive welcome fromt he government, when one considers just how hard the government has cracked down on Falun Dafa as a "Dangerous Cult". There may be a big language gap there with China. Mandarin has such a large speaking base in its own right, the impetus to learn English is not necessarily as great as it may be in other countries, plus English is a hard language to learn. Likewise not many English speaking people can speak Mandarin well, not to mention reading it.

  South Korea is a different matter, because there Christanity is already the largest religion in the country, if I am not mistaken, having more adherants then the Buddhist sects there (or it will soon, at the rate it's growing). So Korea has a lot of "real Christians" who can already discredit JWism pretty well in their own right.

  Japen interests me, as I wonder just what sort of xjw network, or dissident jw groups may already exist in Asian countries, specifically there. Japan had a major increase for years which then suddenly levelled off. Who are our comrades in the struggle in Japan, so to speak?