WTS statistics (1958-2002)

onacruse

YEAR	REGULAR PUBLISHERS	BAPTIZED	EXPECTED NUMBER OF PUBLISHERS	DEFICIT	NET DF'D	TOTAL DF'D
1958	717088	62666	742917	-25829	6,552	25,143
1959	803482	86345	798154	5328	8,035	31,629
1960	851378	69027	876517	-25139	8,514	39,584
1961	884587	63070	936779	-52192	8,846	48,013
1962	920920	69649	990481	-69561	9,209	56,770
1963	956648	62798	1050225	-93577	9,566	65,887
1964	1001870	68236	1102521	-100651	10,019	75,358
1965	1034268	64393	1159732	-125464	10,343	85,276
1966	1064274	58904	1212528	-148254	10,643	95,516
1967	1094280	74981	1259306	-165026	10,943	106,052
1968	1155826	82842	1321694	-165868	11,558	116,885
1969	1256784	120905	1391319	-134535	12,568	128,328
1970	1356756	164193	1498311	-141555	13,568	140,770
1971	1487745	149808	1647521	-159776	14,877	154,202
1972	1605694	163123	1780854	-175160	16,057	168,931
1973	1656673	193990	1926168	-269495	16,567	184,827
1974	1880713	297872	2100897	-220184	18,807	201,228
1975	1959540	295073	2377760	-418220	19,595	219,847
1976	2001926	196656	2649055	-647129	20,019	239,247
1977	2117194	124000	2819220	-702026	21,172	259,066
1978	2086698	95052	2915028	-828330	29,893	280,026
1979	2131051	113672	2980930	-849879	21,311	309,620
1980	2175403	113779	3064793	-889390	21,754	330,717
1981	2247486	119836	3147924	-900438	22,475	352,254
1982	2374604	138540	3236280	-861676	23,746	374,504
1983	2501722	161896	3342458	-840736	25,017	398,013
1984	2680274	180000	3470929	-790655	26,803	422,780
1985	2869174	189800	3616220	-747046	36,638	449,314
1986	3064701	225868	3769858	-705156	37,426	485,586
1987	3266152	230843	3958027	-691875	32,662	522,638
1988	3470869	239268	4149290	-678421	41,000	554,973
1989	3624773	263855	4347065	-722292	36,248	595,563
1990	3846811	301518	4567449	-720638	38,468	631,448
1991	4071954	300945	4823293	-751339	40,720	669,531
1992	4289737	301002	5076005	-786268	42,897	709,844
1993	4483900	296004	5326247	-842347	44,839	752,312
1994	4695111	314818	5568988	-873877	40,000	796,703
1995	4950344	338491	5828116	-877772	49,503	836,303
1996	5167258	366579	6108326	-941068	51,673	885,311
1997	5353078	375923	6413822	-1060744	53,531	936,467
1998	5544059	316092	6725607	-1181548	55,441	989,462
1999	5653987	323439	6974443	-1320456	56,540	1,044,349
2000	5763915	330786	7228137	-1464222	57,639	1,100,323
2001	5873843	338133	7486642	-1612799	58,738	1,157,386
2002	5983771	345480	7749908	-1766137	59,838	1,215,537

Items in bold are those for which I don't have a specific WTS reference.

"Expected number of publishers" is based on the prior years' regular publishers (minus 1% for mortality), plus the current years' baptisms.

"Net DFd" is based on the "1% per year" rule of thumb (several WTS references available).

Of course, this table doesn't include those who studied and perhaps even went out in service a few times, but were otherwise never counted as regular publishers, and left. Nor does it count the millions of Memorial attendees who know better than to get involved with that religion.

At any rate, we're looking at some 2,000,000 who were once bona-fide JW publishers and are now gone.

One thing that strikes me as odd: I find it hard to believe that 2/3 of those who left ended up DFd.

Corrections, etc, welcomed.

Amazing1914

Hi Craig,

There is also the death rate to consider, which is about 1% ... this would account for some of the loss. But the amount of about 2 million ex-JWs sounds about right. - Amazing

ellderwho

Onacruse,

Very interesting. Wilbur Lingle (Approaching Jws in Love) is working on another book, that in part, deals with the "Anointing" debacle and the inconcistincies in the numbers over the years up to present day

.

Atilla

So, in reality JW's could actually be close to atleast 7 million or even 8 million if they weren't so ridiculous in their DF policies. Seems like they are really shooting themselves in the foot. Of course you could probably argue that if they were less strict, they would lose even more people, who knows? Too bad they didn't release figures on why these individuals were DF'd, the R&F would probably assume gratutious sex acts but in reality it's probably something much less "serious", like disgust.

gumby

1,215,537 Total DFed

In just '2002'. Blows me away! That is an entire LARGE city's population! That many people suffering the effects of the Watchtower's evil shunning policies. Pretty sad indeed.

Gumby

Joker10

You are forgetting that not all are DF'd but are inactive. Also, the higher the number of publishers, the greater the number of irregular activity (the ones who missed to report in one month).

onacruse

gumby, that 1.2 million would be the total of everybody still alive who've been DF'd over the last 50 years.

Based on historical percentages, approx 70,000 were DFd last year, worldwide.

onacruse

Amazing, the mortality rate is factored in.

elderwho, yes, there are some glaringly obvious inconsistencies about the number of professed anointed today vs. the number who should still be alive, based on 1935 stats. Seems like a whole bunch of the old "anointed" proved unfaithful and need to be replaced.

Atilla:

Too bad they didn't release figures on why these individuals were DF'd, the R&F would probably assume gratutious sex acts

I can't put my finger on the quote, but I'm pretty sure the WTS at one time came out and said that 80% of DFings were for fornication/adultery...at least until the 70s, when smoking became the hot item, and then in the 80s when apostasy (dang that 1975 stuff and Ray Franz! LOL) reared its ugly head. I don't recall seeing anything since then about the whys-and-wherefores...I'll check.

Joker, I'm not sure I get your point??

Golden Girl

Is this a a scan..or is there a link to the site for this information?

Really appreciate the information..

Golden Girl...

onacruse

GG, this is a condensed collation of all the info I could gather together from the 2001 WT CD, and several other sources.

The interpolative data is based on the best-available parameters (1% mortality rate, 1%/year DFing rate, etc).

I'd be glad to post a more comprehensive spreadsheet (126 row x 18 column)(all refs included), but I'd rather wait for a bit for 'corrective' observations before I eat up so much bandwidth.

edit to add: In a somewhat different perspective, there's a lot of good stuff at http://www.jwic.com/stat.htm

WTS statistics (1958-2002)

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