Thanks for the helpful comments. As a result, this Post is revised in the "Analysis" portion below. I made some math errors in a rush to post this in between work breaks. I did notice the errors at first, but it was posted and I was out of time.
POLL RESULTS AND ANALYSIS: I appreciate everyone participating in the POLL. I had the thread locked so that the results would be preserved consistent with my analysis. Also, additional numbers will not add that much more meaning, as I believe that we have enough data to at least form a reasonable conclusion.
Premise of POLL: You will note that I only asked one question. I did not ask how many congregations you were in, nor did I limit the responses only to those who knew molesters. So, some of you who knew none took the time to respond. This open-ended approach is good because the simpler the poll, with few or just one question, helps to reduce confusion and mainly helps mitigate slanting or prejudicing the results: Now let’s look at the tabulation and see what we can make of it:
Total readers as of today: 1200+
Total responses: 90
Subtract to bring post to top: 7
____________________________________________
Net Responses: 83
Total knowing zero molesters: 19
Total knowing one or more: 64
Total known molesters reported: 183
Average per ALL respondents: 2.20
Ave. among those knowing one or more molesters: 2.86
Total non-USA respondents: 14
Total non-USA molesters cited: 29
Percentage Non-USA responses: 17%
Percentage of Non-USA molesters:16%
Analysis: I am using two important conservative values: 1.) That the average JW has been in at least five (5) congregations in their lifetime. 2.) I am using the lower average of ALL respondents of 2.20 known molesters per person, including those non-USA. This allows for any other variations such as a congregations where some know about a molester, but others do not. 3.) This study is applied only to the USA. Some of the respondents posted were from other nations as were the molesters they reported, but my conservative assumptions help offset this, and it is evident that the ratios of respondents to molesters is about the same, that is 17% to 16%. So these will be kept in the study of the USA as it will not affect the extrapolations.
A. – Averages: Total respondents were 83. If we conservatively assume that each has been in five (5) congregations, then this means that of 415 (83 x 5) congregations there are 183 known molesters. This yields an average of 0.44 molesters per congregation, whether every JW knows about the molester or not, and/or accounts for several JWs in the same congregation knowing the same molester.
B. – Extrapolation: There are about 11,500 congregation in the USA. Therefore, conservatively using the average of 0.44 molesters per congregation times 11,500 congregations, yields 5,071 molesters per ALL congregations in the USA. This is still higher than my original analysis of about 3,000 to 3,500 molesters nationwide.
C. – Additional Conservatism: "Deleted" and unnecessary
D. – Potential Victims: The victims of JW molesters do not have to be JWs themselves. The mere fact they are a victim is adequate for this analysis. Molesters are a threat to every child regardless of sex, religion, etc. The attorney that I worked with on this issue uses the average of 300+ victims per molester. He bases his number on studies that have to hold up in a court of law when prosecuting cases for his clients. Therefore, 300 victims x 5,071 molesters among the JWs nationwide yields a potential victims population of 1,521,325 victims of JW molesters.
E. – JW Population: The fact that this number exceeds the total number of about 1,000,000 JWs in the USA is not critical. Remember that the Society primarily counts active, baptized publishers as its ‘official’ count. There are likely another 1,000,000 associating who are newly interested, Bible Studies, and others. The JW parents may have as many as 1 to 3 children associating, thus adding another 1,000,000 or so to the JW population in the USA. Also, recall that the victims may not all be JW children.
F. – JWs to the USA: There are about 280,000,000 residents in the USA, of which there are about 1,000,000 active JWs. This gives a ratio of 1 active JW for every 280 residents. However, the JW population is higher if one counts those associating, studying, inactive, and children. I suggest that this falls somewhere between a total of 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 JWs and associates in the USA. This would render about 1 JW in every 100 USA residents.
The significance is that if there are 5,071 molesters among about 1,000,000 active JWs in the USA, this yields a percentage of 0.51 percent of the JW population are molesters. Let’s look at this further:
Studies show that about 6% to 60% of all females, and 3% to 30% of all males in the USA have been sexually abused or molested at least once before age 18. The current population in the USA is now almost evenly divided between male and female. That balance used to favor more females because of war in the 20th century killing off a lot of men, but has changed by the late 1990s. Using that even distribution, 6% of females and 3% of males can be averaged out to conservative 4.5% to 45% of the population in the USA has been sexually abused prior to age 18.
How many potential molesters in the general population? Using the lower number of 4.5% to 280,000,000 residents equals a potential victim population of 12,600,000 nationwide. I think this is a little low. If molesters have an average of 300+ victims, then this would translate into 42,000 molesters nationwide among the general population. Again, I think this number is a little low. It does represent a molester population of 0.0002 (0.02%) of the nation at large.
Therefore, the JW average I found of 5.2% JW victim population and 0.44 JW molester population correlates somewhat to the national averages and is withing range of the general population. The JWs averages appears a little higher I suspect because of the Watch Tower being a more fertile ground for pedophiles to locate. Or my extrapolation may be high, though I do not think so. This was also the case among other religions, public and private schools, and day care centers before the legislators increased regulations and victims increased civil suits against churches, schools, and day care centers. This forced a serious change in operations among these groups. The Watch Tower is clearly behind the rest of the nation in addressing this most serious issue.
Correlation: I find enough correlation in this study to suggest to me that the data supports the extrapolations. Given the conservatism used, and the correlation to the studies done on the general population, this study seems to be valid:
My Assessment: 1,521,325 potrential victims of JW molesters can also be evaluated down by using the national victim averages: Using the national Average of 4.5% to about 3,000,000 associated with JWs would yield 135,000 victims of JWs molesters with all who may associate with that organization. Does an order of magnitude lower make us feel better?
Why the large ranges?: The ranges of 3% to 30% (men), 6% to 60% (women), and 5.1% (JWs) shown above are not because the data is unscientific or wildly uncertain. Everyone in the USA has not submitted to study such that the actual number is not known. Mental Health professionals, therefore, have to use study data as it is collected from actual case loads and input for evaluation and extrapolation. So, the range is likely done much the same way I mitigated my extrapolations. Frankly 3% to 6% is scary enough without taking this to the potential of 30% to 60%. Also, these ranges account for definition issues, such as the total sets including fondling, whereas subsets may only discuss actual genital copulation.
What to make of this?: Approximately 135,000 to 1,521,325 victims of JW molesters? What price do you place on this? How do you account for a religion that claims to be more pure than all other religions or organizations or peoples or nations on this planet – a religion whose extrapolated molestation average of 5.2% exceeds the USA national extrapolated average of 4.5%? How do you begin to stop this insanity? How do you make sure that innocent men do not get falsely accused? How do to repair the damage and emotionally and spiritually heal the children? How do you help the children, mostly male victims, avoid double victimization as adults by being suspected as higher risk to become molesters?
How do you break the chain of abuse? Maybe its time to start standing up publicly by being counted, and break the silence! Maybe we cannot do this for the whole nation, but as former JWs, maybe we can at least help with the 1% of JW populations that we know about. Maybe, NBC Dateline is the first among many such steps to get this ball rolling – and make the world a little better for our children and grandchildren to come. Eccl. say that there is a time for peace and a time for war; a time for silence, and a time to speak.
In our civilization and in our individual lifetime we have opportunity to make a difference. We need some rational and mature treatment of this serious social ill of molestations among the JWs. The peodphiles need to be kept away from children, but need mental health treatment and/or biological treatment to find a cure for their madness. More importantly, the victims need to finally feel safe enough to speak up and get help, and identify the perpertrators. Victims need help to break the cycle before many of them will become perpertrators or isolated and mentally depressed for life. Does not this situation appeal to our inner most sense of humanity to take a stand? - Amazing