To Marvin Shilmer:
With respect to your comments about JanH's reference to 2 Peter and scoffers, his point was that Christians who pointed to world conditions in their day as signs of "the end" usually also pointed to the existence of scoffers as signs of "the end". But they were as wrong about their application of 2 Peter as they were about their application of Jesus' words about "signs of the end" to conditions in their day. Thus, it is nonsensical for anyone to claim that the presence of scoffers is further proof that "the end is near". JanH was not attempting to use this to disprove any Christian's contention that "the end is near", but to show why Christians cannot use 2 Peter to prove such a contention.
As for JanH's illustration of a 14th-century Christian's claiming that the century he had just witnessed contained all of the "signs" mentioned by Jesus and that therefore he must be living in the last days, the point was that the Christian would have been incorrect no matter whether he 'correctly' applied Jesus' words or not. In other words, if Jesus meant that earthquakes had to be observed worldwide as a "sign", and the 14th-century Christian was by some means actually able to observe them worldwide, he would have been wrong to claim these as a sign. And if he only observed one or more local quakes and then 'incorrectly' applied Jesus' words, he certainly would have been wrong about them as a sign.
The point here is that (as JanH stated, even assuming that Jesus meant to give signs of the end to watch for) even if a 14th-century Christian 'correctly' applied Jesus' words to each 'sign', events proved him wrong about the imminence of "the end". Therefore, such 'signs' are valueless for all time periods after the 14th century.
Logic tells us the same thing: earthquakes, war, famine and pestilence are as common in human history as grass, blue sky and sexual desire. Invoking them as 'signs' gives one no more information about the nearness of "the end" than saying, "Look! The grass is green! The sky is blue! Young men are lusting after young women! Jehovah's Witnesses are preaching!"
These facts really point out what JanH mentioned as a major caveat: Jesus actually said nothing at all about quakes and so forth being signs of imminence of "the end". In fact he said the opposite: quakes and so forth were not to be interpreted as signs of "the end".
Of late, JWs are fond of dismissing the proof that their earlier claims, such as "earthquakes are 20 times worse in the 20th century", are nonsense, by saying, "Jesus said we'd see earthquakes. We see earthquakes. This is a fulfillment of the sign Jesus said to watch for." Again, this dismissal ignores the fact that earthquakes are as common as grass and therefore that only a significant change in the occurrence of quakes or grass can be a sign of anything. Lack of change gives no information at all.
I wonder if you could see your way to making Friend's polished draft, or at least the points made in it, available. I'm sure he wouldn't object to making it available privately.
To You Know:
The so-called preaching work that JWs do is not a sign of anything, except perhaps their supreme arrogance in thinking that they're special. C. T. Russell taught that Christendom had fulfilled Jesus' commission to "make disciples of people of all nations" by not later than 1860. Can anyone prove him wrong? No, because the criteria for measuring something as nebulous as "preaching to all nations" are completely subjective. Exactly the same objections you might raise against Russell's claim can be applied to JWs today. Try it if you don't believe it.
Furthermore, JWs can hardly be said to have been very effective preachers in many major population centers. Hardly anyone in China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many other lands have even heard of JWs, much less been preached to effectively. In Western lands JWs are usually well known, but not in most others. In Western lands, JWs are not well known for preaching "the good news of the Kingdom" -- they're best known for any number of other things, mostly not complimentary.
It is also the case that the very basis for JW preaching -- that Christ was enthroned in heaven in 1914 -- is a false doctrine because the 1914 date is nothing more than a disproved dream of some 19th-century prognosticators. When all evidence is considered, biblical and extra-biblical, JW 'chronology' is seen to be no more than smoke and mirrors. Thus, JWs are as clueless about "what God's kingdom is" as JWs claim that "Christendom" is. And of course, the applications that JWs give to 'modern day fulfillments of Bible prophecy', such as in that astute 1917 work The Finished Mystery, change as often as does the underwear of a working supermodel.
AlanF