The Future of WTBTS: A prediction.

Spook

In light of the recent statistics and change in Awake publication, I have the following thoughts:

1. The work in western lands is steady or decreasing.

2. Foreign territory in western lands is increasing proportionately.

3. Therefore, the established, wealthier population of publishers in Western lands is decreasing more rapidly, being replaced by foreign/special language territories.

4. A majority of the financial support for publication comes from the decreasing base of wealthy western culture.

5. The pressure for material in foreign languages is increasing.

6. The cost of the preaching work is increasing, due to #5, and the increased costs of transportation due to oil prices, and the economics of electronic transmittals reducing the global demand for shipping.

7. A large portion of the most zealous young peple switch to foreign territory, reducing the activity of established congregations in western lands.

8. Due to #7, #1-6 will increase in the future.

I predict: (1) Further seperation of printing and operations into branches. (2) Admonition for 'need-greaters' to consider that the greater need may be in struggling local congregations. (3) Continued decrease in printing activities. (4) Overall decrease in preaching work.

Not to be ignored is that the world population is increasing much more rapidly than the preaching work in most areas. The work is becoming more futile.

Thoughts?

what_Truth?

I agree with the ex-ministerial servant that studied with me back when. He predicted that at some point the org with split. One faction will meld in with mainstream religion. The other will stay the org is now.

Pwned

Its hard to predict, it seems like there are so many things that should have destroyed this religion over the last 100yrs and yet they dont die, "hierba mala nunca muere".

ezekiel3

1. The work in western lands is steady or decreasing.

It is important to realize that this number is "steady" is only because of JW youth getting baptized. Counting on this number is dangerous because most of the young JW baptisms then get DFed within a couple of years.

4. A majority of the financial support for publication comes from the decreasing base of wealthy western culture.

Yes, a major majority. But don't count on this breaking the bank. I see the US/European JWs settling their consciences by literally buying their way into Paradise. Reference the Catholic practice of "indulgences." This will suit the WTS just fine.

I like your opinions but...

I predict: (1) Further seperation of printing and operations into branches. (2) Admonition for 'need-greaters' to consider that the greater need may be in struggling local congregations. (3) Continued decrease in printing activities. (4) Overall decrease in preaching work.

...the above is currently true. No prediction required:

(1) All major branches are currently self sufficient in that they have localized printing. Brooklyn is now considered only a "branch" for the US.

(2) Hehe. I don't know if you have been to meetings lately, but the need for brothers is critical right now. Elders are adjusting/running the mikes. Ministerial servants are being traded like pro football players. Elders are thrilled when 30 out of 100 publishers show up for Saturday service. Its bad.

(3) Here we have an anomoly. The WTS has just purchased some of the finest presses in the world and shipped them to the regional branches. Yet the quality and quantity (see monthly Awake!) is down. I see that the JW market is turning inward and may support inflated numbers for some years to come. Amway doesn't make its money from the public, it makes money from the distributors. No different than the WTS.

(4) 2% increase for 2004 not considering population growth. I'm afraid that's a decrease.

Doubtfully Yours

I predict....

1- Reform. Some has already happened.

2- More reform. Continues to happen as we speak.

3- Much more reform. Will happen at a larger scale once the younger JW generation takes over.

DY

IP_SEC

(2) Hehe. I don't know if you have been to meetings lately, but the need for brothers is critical right now. Elders are adjusting/running the mikes. Ministerial servants are being traded like pro football players. Elders are thrilled when 30 out of 100 publishers show up for Saturday service. Its bad.

This is one of the most heartening things to me right now.

There is no one in our congregation right now who stands a chance of being appointed as an MS within the next 3 years much less an elder. Our body is very small

About 9 years ago when we had the KMschool before this last one, MSes out numbered elders almost 2 to 1. At the last KMschool there were more elders than MSes. There are few replacements for the current bodies. Hope Jehovah does something about that soon. :0

Spook

Ezekiel,

Do you know if the financial support for all printed materials is divided into branches? Or is only the opperational activity divided into branches?

As to the comment by another poster about reform: As a student of anthropolgy and organizational theory, I feel that reform on the major issues that are causing conflict is not likely without a major chaotic, discreet event. The role of the GB as a group of anchient men living in near total isolation from the real world prevents real change taking place. Since new members are brought in gradually, the idea of a younger generation producing change is not likely from the top down. The new members that are brought in will be integrated for a decade, then the roles will be reversed.

truth_about_the_truth

I think if Ted Jaracz kicks the bucket, we could see some major reform happening pretty quickly. Either that or a coupe de tat from within the org.

slimboyfat

At least one social scientist is unconvinced that Witness efforts in the "foreign field"" have been as successful as they may at first appear:

He challenged stereotypes that the Watchtower is winning most of its converts from among people in lower socioeconomic strata and noted that, although the Witnesses put great emphasis on proselytizing among immigrants and refugees, he is unconvinced of their success.

See:

doogie

At least one social scientist is unconvinced that Witness efforts in the "foreign field"" have not been as successful as they may at first appear:

of course he's unconvinced. he's unbelievably biased. it's like saying, "The Jehovah's Witnesses are unconvinced that their work is unsuccessful."

The Future of WTBTS: A prediction.

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