Hi HealthySkeptic,
Just addressing your topic "Using history as a means to pinpoint possible future events":
Have you read the second epilogue of Tolstoy's War and Peace? In it he expounds on his theory of the tides of history and how it's the infinite minutiae that dictate it's future course. That idea runs through the whole book actually, which is well worth a read, I can't recommend it highly enough.
Have you also considered the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov? These books explore the idea of predicting the future by examining the past and then going on to try and manipulate it.