Posts by darkspilver

35

Polish EX-JW Activism compilation video

by WTS Archive in

i'd like to show you a short video i made about exjw activism in poland.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt3qdtyxgd8.

i'm one of the people responsible for those information campaigns/protests, so you can ask me anything you like.

there's a lot i didn't show on the video because of the limited time i have for editing, i have tons of footage more.

darkspilver

Thank you to both Saename and John Free

steve2: would darkspilver care to comment?

OK, if I have too....

darkspilver: The Polish are/where coming to Britain where there now 50 Polish congegations....

This was a light-hearted comment due to the significant Polish migration that has taken place over the last decade-or-so.

There were an estimated 831,000 Polish-born residents in 2015 - a jump of almost 750,000 compared with the number in 2004, the year the country joined the EU.
READ MORE: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37183733
SEE ALSO: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poles_in_the_United_Kingdom
SEE ALSO: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migrations_from_Poland_since_EU_accession

SUBTEXT: A reference to using 'congregation' as a statistical measure in this current forum thread

steve2: Yet even in Britain, growth of publishers is slowing down, if not stagnating
darkspilver:
Britain has seen 13 consecutive years of increase in average publishers reporting.
Over the last 13 years Britain has seen the ratio of publishers-to-population go from 1-in-456 to 1-in-471.
"lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Two statistics, apparently proving opposite things, but when taken together, actually proving the point they where made in reference too.

https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/5666875209940992/stagnation-jws-britain

The quote is referencing the fact that the two 'opposing' statistics are actually both correct - the first one in particular being used to prove 'growth', while ignoring, or being unfamiliar with, the second one.

SUBTEXT: A slight reference to the statistics being used in this recently revived forum thread

steve2: Curiously, darkspilver also provided data that perhaps inadvertently supports my post:

Inadvertently? I never do anything 'inadvertently'

32

Stagnation of JWs in Britain

by darkspilver in

jw
friends

this is an 'off-topic' continuation of this discussion.

steve2: in britain, growth of publishers is slowing down, if not stagnating.

darkspilver: .

darkspilver

This is an 'off-topic' continuation of this discussion

steve2: In Britain, growth of publishers is slowing down, if not stagnating
darkspilver:
Britain has seen 13 consecutive years of increase in average publishers reporting.
Over the last 13 years Britain has seen the ratio of publishers-to-population go from 1-in-456 to 1-in-471.
"lies, damned lies, and statistics"
steve2: Putting snide quotes aside about "lies, damned lies and statistics" would darkspilver care to comment?

What is stagnation?: "A lack of growth, or development." / "A period during which the economy grows slowly, doesn't grow at all, or actually contracts after adjusting for inflation."

I believe the two statistics I provided above, although seemingly contradicatory, are actually an almost perfect example of stagnation within the religious context. (that is, in contrast to being a 'pure decrease')

While there is growth, it is not keeping up with the marketplace (ie the population) growing, it is not 'developing.' - there is a 'lack of growth'.

Thus while the JWs are still active, with a consistant year-on-year increase over a 13-year period (ie: growth), once the increase in the population is taken into account (ie inflation of market place, the pub-to-pop ratio) then there is actually a decrease - ie: stagnation.

This stagnation is compounded by - and is happening despite - the additional fact that, over the same 13 years, there has been a significant 'per-publisher' 25% increase in ministry time being reported. Thus there should be more increase than there is taking place - ie: stagnation.

I added the quote because people can be quick to pick up on individual statistics, without seeing the context (ie the statistical data as a whole).

steve2: Follow peak publishers year by year

This is a side issue, but, no, please don't follow 'peak publishers'.

Actually, the WT do not count publishers. There is no 'head-count'.

What they do count is how many S-4 Report Forms (time-slips) are submitted each month.

If a publisher forgets to Report last month, and therefore submits two Reports (for last month and this month) they get double-counted as TWO publishers for this month.

If a publisher forgets to Report the last two month, and therefore submits three Reports (for last month, the month month before, and this month) they get triple-counted as THREE publishers for this month.

The most number of Reports a publisher would normally submit at once is six - done to negate becoming 'inactive' (ie no Reports from the last six months)

Thus the 'peak publishers' number includes a lot of double and triple-counting.

See Question from Readers: https://wol.jw.org/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/2011609

I believe it is therefore a statistical fallacy to use 'peak publishers' - it is much better to use 'average publishers'.

BTW I was JOKING - the WT DOES count publishers, of course they do, they just don't normally print it......

Each month each congregation submits TWO 'publisher' totals
the total number of Reports Submitted (ie this is the number that gets printed/used above); and
the total number of 'Active Publishers' (ie the total number of actual publishers in the congregation (with no double counting) who have submitted at least one Report within the last six months). This is generally taken as being the 'publisher-size' of the congregation.

17

Lawyer from Canada Bethel turns whistleblower

by krismalone in

lawyer from canada watchtower branch reveals how the watchtower protects pedophiles.

he had the courage to speak up against the evil policies that protect pedophiles.

this video needs to go viral.

darkspilver

The OP video is a short excerpt from CBC's The Fifth Estate's "Spiritual Shepherds" that was originally broadcast on January 29, 2003.

You can also view a good quality video version of the 45 minute programme on the CBC webpage below:

The OP's extract is at the 21:20 time mark.

http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/blog/spiritual-shepherds

You can also watch it on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6ZIxIy_BQE

32

Hellaby UK circuit A$$emb£y this Sunday

by punkofnice in

my spies tell me that the attendance for hellaby this last sunday was only 600.. that's all i know.

i imagine some on here have perhaps some more insights into why.

however, it seems rather low, don't you think?.

darkspilver

Gayle: wow, low attendance, how much seating capacity, one commenter on a googled site indicated 1200 attenders possible at one time

Google eh?

Construction began in September 1985 on what has come to be known as the East Pennine Assembly Hall. It is a steel-frame structure seating 1,642 persons, with a 350-seat Kingdom Hall for the local congregation. The building was designed with a roof that has a 42-meter [138 foot] span.
https://wol.jw.org/en/wol/pc/r1/lp-e/1200270535/49/0

The number of seats may have been reduced since it was first built.

In Britain they normally divide each circuit up into two assemblies (an 'A' and a 'B' part) so 900 to 1,300 attendance is probably 'expected' in the English speaking circuits.

35

Polish EX-JW Activism compilation video

by WTS Archive in

i'd like to show you a short video i made about exjw activism in poland.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt3qdtyxgd8.

i'm one of the people responsible for those information campaigns/protests, so you can ask me anything you like.

there's a lot i didn't show on the video because of the limited time i have for editing, i have tons of footage more.

darkspilver

steve2: Yet even in Britain, growth of publishers has stalled.

Britain has seen 13 consecutive years of increase in average publishers reporting.

Over the last 13 years Britain has seen the ratio of publishers-to-population go from 1-in-456 to 1-in-471.

"lies, damned lies, and statistics"

35

Polish EX-JW Activism compilation video

by WTS Archive in

i'd like to show you a short video i made about exjw activism in poland.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt3qdtyxgd8.

i'm one of the people responsible for those information campaigns/protests, so you can ask me anything you like.

there's a lot i didn't show on the video because of the limited time i have for editing, i have tons of footage more.

darkspilver

The Polish are/where coming to Britain where there now 50 Polish congegations....

https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6349425083416576/_post/6343951348924416

28

252 Congregations have closed in Germany since 2015

by LevelThePlayingField in

this is a video from down with the tower.

it's excellent.

enjoy.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0lvvy2qurm.

darkspilver

slimboyfat: Japan has lost hundreds of congregations. Has there ever been an explanation for that?

A combination of a decrease in the number of JWs and an increase in JWs-per-congregation

The 'hey-day' was the period up to 1998.

16

No Wonder That the WT Bean-Counters are Scared

by berrygerry in

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=exjw.

.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=jw.org.

darkspilver

This is data using 'search terms' right?

I think the jworg apparent 'interest' drop in terms of internet searches shows that the target visitors for the site (ie JWs themselves) has matured so that they have learned to type in the domain themselves to their browsers, or have bookmarked it.

Also the use of the QR Code - which would negate the use of a search enhine - has increased in the last few years (though I suspect actual usage is very low?)

In addition, many R&F JWs nowadays only use the smart phone app for all their 'jw' needs and not the website (you ask them to look at something on the website, and they can't find it because they're on their phone looking at the app, not the website d'oh!)

'exjw' and 'ex jw' are mostly english speaking terms, whereas 'jworg' is international.

IMHO it would be better therefore to compare usage in an english speaking country, for example the USA:

What is interesting is the very slightly raised interest in 'exjw' (the blue line) over the last two years.

28

252 Congregations have closed in Germany since 2015

by LevelThePlayingField in

this is a video from down with the tower.

it's excellent.

enjoy.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0lvvy2qurm.

darkspilver

Don't miss the wood for the forest.

Germany needs to close another 226 congregations to equal the same publisher-to-congregation ratio as in the USA.

16

can you still record the talks at assemblies?

by greenhornet in

years ago my parents would record these talks and play them back all the time.

when they both died, we cleaned out the house and found 50 plus cassette tapes of recorded talks and they were labeled the year and the speaker at the time.

that was in the year 2000. we just gave them to there jw friends because i did not want to keep them for recording of music.

darkspilver

Short answer: Yes - it is announced at the start of the assembly

greenhornet: Years ago my parents would record these talks and play them back all the time.

I think it has gone out of 'fashion' to (audio) record the assemblies.

It would often be done for ones unable to attend - BUT the WT now provide video recordings of all the assemblies anyway (but not for each circuit - the recording will not normally be 'your' assembly).

TBH, nowadays, if JWs want something 'extra' to listen to, they just pop on re-runs of the JW TV monthly broadcasts

greenhornet: do they still provide the audio jacks for tape cassette recording or they now frown on that practice?

Pardon???? What is a 'tape cassette'???? haha - anyone still actually use them

Actually, at many conventions, they provide a live radio broadcast of the programme that can be recorded by a mp3 player - much, much easier to record!

Recordings are allowed - there is an announcement about them before the start of each day's session for example:

We extend a warm welcome to one and all!
We are delighted to be assembled together for this opening session of the “Don’t Give Up!” Regional Convention of Jehovah’s Witnesses!
Please note that the entire program is also being broadcast simultaneously on FM frequency XXX.
Any recordings of this program should be for your personal use or for the benefit of those unable to attend a convention this year.
Recordings should not be made available for general circulation or distribution.
Please bear in mind that no one is allowed on or around the stage to take pictures or to video record at any time during the convention program.
Although cameras, video recorders, electronic tablets, and other such devices are permitted if operated from your seat, when they are held up to take pictures or to record video, these devices can be distracting to those behind you. So please be considerate of others by not disturbing them or blocking their view.
Please do not use flash cameras during the program.
No cameras or recording devices are to be connected to the electrical or sound systems at the convention, nor should equipment be placed in aisles or in traffic areas.
READ FULL CHAIRMAN OUTLINE: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByWM0b0qtWlsbzFFazAzOTVFYXc/view