I think the persecution complex is built up enough that quite a few would only redouble their efforts to remain loyal to the cult if the government tried to shut them down. If, on the other hand, some freak natural disaster (an asteroid strikes the new cult compound right after completion and kills the entire GB and most of the higher-ups - now who's fantasizing?) I think there could be something like what you're talking about.
There's been too much preparing (even the recent "gog of magog" change) for a government to try to shut them down that I think it might actually have the opposite effect and pull in a lot of the fence-sitters and doubters.