Posts by OneEyedJoe

44

Decrease of numbers in Jehovah's Witnesses via Deaths, DFings, or Turning Inactive

by flipper in

jw
friends

so i'm sure a good number of us saw the chart that i believe the poster splash put on another thread of figures since 1990 regarding how many baptized and % of increase each year .

i started analyzing it ( and i know some referred to it briefly on the other thread ) and guessing of reasons the % of increase didn't match the number of newly baptized.

and of course common sense tells us that either jw's leave the cult each year through death, fading into inactivity, or getting dfed.

OneEyedJoe

There is no correlation between publishers and baptisms.

IMO this is too strongly worded. There's definitely a correlation, it's just that the number of baptisms will lag behind the number of new publishers. Looking at a single year the numbers don't mean that much to one another, but looking over a longer period I think one can fairly accurately estimate the number leaving. The number leaving might not always include those who were baptized at some point, but if someone becomes a publisher and then leaves I think we can still count it as a win for team TTATT.

I was under the impression that the "peak publisher" total was taken from any given month showing the highest publishers reporting. It would explain special campaign months where irregular publishers and even some inactive publishers are encouraged to engage in the campaign and report time for the month. That month would generate thousands more publishers in the ministry and would be used as the "peak publisher" mark reported in the yearbook

The last two Augusts have been good examples of this. I think typically they'll do some sort of reminder that it's the end of the service year and ask for any late reports to be turned in (thus concentrating the late reports in a single month to generate a false peak vs allowing them to come in whenever which would average out) but they definitely did that this year. Then in 2014 they had the big JW.org campaign in august. I think the reason for this campaign was primarily to allow them to post a significant increase in 2014 (which it did, the increase in publishers for 2014 was between 25% and 90% higher than the years prior) because they were concerned that any drop in numbers as a result of the arrival of 2014 would be detrimental to them. I think they're paying for it this year, though, because they can only artificially inflate the numbers like that so much before they reach a ceiling.

What percentage of active publishers are not (yet) baptized?

I'd estimate this at ~10% at most. In recent years it may well have gone down as the average age of baptism seems to have gone down.

74

Jehovah's Witnesses May Have Peaked in Membership at 8 Million (+/-)

by OnTheWayOut in

jw
friends

i don't have all the details of their new "service year" numbers, but i have read enough on jwn to state my opinion pretty strongly.. memorial attendance for 2015 was down.while they kept saying they were going to build a bunch of new kingdom halls, and everybody is still in recovery from watchtower taking all the local money away, they say pretty much that there isn't enough money to build new kingdom halls.putting gb members on the videos at jw .

org has allowed people to really put a face and personality to these guys and remove the mystery of how they should be such deeply spiritual serious men.

instead they see silly thoughts about tight pants and, really everything that comes out of lett's mouth is delivered ultra-goofy, along with the money reports.. the gb lost credibility a little more with every new light that shone down, with the strangest one being "overlapping generation.

OneEyedJoe

I wonder if they will ever make 9 million ?
In theory, they should within a few years, but it seems to me that the decline has started for real, so the Thread Title should be an accurate prediction.

I suspect we'll have a pretty good idea in about a year. Going by past performance, they should hit 9 million in about 4-5 years, but if they have another year like 2015, I'd say it'll take them closer to a decade, which gives them plenty of time to have enough problems to start to see proper stagnation/decline.

Since it seems feasible that they're peaking, what do we think will happen when the numbers drop back down to the 7 million bracket? When they officially hit 8 million I think it got a passing mention in a WT article (something like "with over 8 million kingdom evangalizers....") I think everybody locally noticed and a few in the congregation got somewhat excited.

When genuine decline sets in and becomes obvious to the masses (assuming they continue reporting the numbers) what happens? I think they might've gotten a little unlucky that they're at the bottom of the 8 million bracket because it won't take much loss in membership for people to notice. They might ignore a drop from 7.9 million to 7.5 million thinking that they simply misremembered the details, but knew it was somewhere in the ~7 million range. A drop from 8.25 million to 7.9 million, while smaller, is much more likely to be noticed.

It seems to me that they may be poised for a short-term feedback loop of people leaving. Those with doubts and the fence-sitters or those who are only in for family may see the noticeable decline as a turning of the tide. The decline itself could well cause many to leave, creating further decline. It wouldn't last forever, but I can see them losing maybe a million in membership in a 4-5 year period due to something like this.

This is probably on the optimistic side but it seems plausible to me. Fear of something like this is why I expect the GB to turn attention away from reporting numbers (or at least away from reporting all the numbers) in a short while. They'll probably go to highlights that can be more easily manipulated (new peak in pioneers, but don't mention that the hours required to pioneer have dropped precipitously) and stop the full yearly reporting. The good news is that the GB seems to be entirely reactive and in wishful thinking mode, so I think we'll probably see at least one or two years' numbers showing decline before they actually realize the pattern and change how things are reported. That would also give them a little time to lay the groundwork (perhaps a study article on David's taking the census, etc) so that it doesn't come as too much of a shock from an organization that's always been obsessed with numbers.

22

Recent announcement on literature placements

by dbq407 in

i find it interesting that the other night they announced that literature is not to be left indiscriminately.

they said to only leave literature if the householder engages you in conversation.

it used to be that they would try to get any literature into every hand of every person.

OneEyedJoe

They go back and forth on this. They want placements but I remember even 10 years or more ago they'd talk about "our literature is valuable" so only leave it if they'll read it.

11

Please how can I create a website?

by COLLINS in

jw
friends

please i want someone to teach me how i create websites.thanks!.

OneEyedJoe

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=how+do+I+create+a+website

12

The "overly attached witness parents" problem

by scaredtospeak in

it's so good to finally be nineteen years old.

graduated from high school, taken more seriously as an adult.

i even have a job.

OneEyedJoe

It's a tough situation to be sure. Perhaps talking frankly about your feelings toward the current situation (I would advise to stay away from the full list of why you feel that way, since obviously criticism of the cult will not be taken well) will be enough to win their support for you to move out. You are still quite young and would do well to remember that they're motivated by what they think are in your best interests. Even if their goal is to keep you in the cult, they may still have some practical wisdom that you could benefit from and I think if you approach it with that attitude it will go much easier for you.

In the end, you have to do what's best for you. That doesn't mean making rash, impulsive decisions, but take time and get some space and figure out what you want. It sounds like you've already done this, and that you truly want to leave. That being so, then you need to leave. You can only spend so much of your life living it for someone else, be that your parents, your friends, your spouse, whoever. You have to live life for yourself, or you'll look back with regret.

You describe your parents as having a crushing grasp, but then insist that they're not mean or oppressive. I don't know which is the truth, but it sounds as if you're conflicted on that point. Their behavior doesn't have to be overt and out of malice for it to be oppressive. At a certain point they need to recognize your rights as an adult and as a free individual with your own intelligence and emotions and if they refuse to do so then I would argue that is a form of oppression as well. Withholding their emotional support and pushing you to do what they want in opposition to your desires is, in my mind, mean and oppressive. I don't say that to make you think badly of your parents, but so that hopefully you'll recognize that you do deserve to be able to direct your own life. I don't think you need to learn to hate your parents in order to be able to leave, but I do think it's important to understand that you're the one that has to live with your decisions more so than anyone else, so it's only fair that you get to make them.

Anyway I'm not sure how helpful that is, but it's my $0.02. I think the easiest way to go is just to talk to them respectfully and honestly and with the spirit of getting their valuable support/advice/wisdom in accomplishing your goals and either they'll respect and support you or they won't. If they do, you'll be in a much better situation than just storming out. If they don't support you, perhaps you'll see that they're trying to control you and fit you into their box of what you should be and maybe that will make it easier for you to strike out on your own without regret. At least you'll be able to say you tried. It may take more than one conversation, so don't give up right away, remember this is likely difficult for them too. But at the same time, stay firm.

51

My first post

by thewalker in

jw
friends

hi, i just joined the board and wanted to present myself.. i'm active, in fact very active in congregation activities serving "where the need is great" in a foreign language congregation somewhere in western europe.

as a young brother, i'm seen as an example as i'm doing all a good witness should do.. i had doubts years ago but i decided just to ignore them and move to another congregation to preach more.

that worked for some years but i'm now at the exact same point.

OneEyedJoe

Welcome and thanks for sharing. Your words are very well organized for someone that's not using their mother tongue - in fact your post was easier to read than most written by native english speakers :)

You're definitely among people that can relate to your story. As you've seen yourself, the advice to basically throw yourself deeper into the organization when you have doubts is a temporary solution at best. I think most here would agree that probably the most beneficial thing for you would be to get some space to figure things out on your own. You shouldn't feel pressured to make up your mind or to make a commitment. Armageddon has been coming "soon" for over a hundred years, so I think it's safe to say that you can give yourself some time to think things through. Mostly though, remember that there's nothing wrong with you and that you're far from alone in this.

Good luck on your journey, wherever it leads you. I hope you find this forum to be as helpful and friendly to you as it has been for me.

11

Sexual reproduction as an argument against evolution

by Saintbertholdt in

about a day ago startrekangel mentioned that an idea was put forward by a jw that sexual reproduction was an argument against evolution.

here's startrekangel's quote: "is this some kind of talk being spread around in congregations?

the funny thing is that a while ago someone tried to make the same argument, saying they could disprove evolution because no one can explain how we evolved male and female at the same time.

OneEyedJoe

I find this creationist argument completely astonishing. I see sexual reproduction and human genitalia as an argument against intelligent design and thus in favour of evolution.

Three engineers were discussing the nature of god. The first says "When you examine the human skeletal structure, it's clear that god is a mechanical engineer." The second says "No! Our brains and nervous system is what makes us what we are. God is clearly an electrical engineer." The third says "You're both wrong! Only a civil engineer would run a waste disposal pipeline right through the middle of a recreation area."

68

My Explanation of God.

by LAWHFol in

i am a theist & this is my version of god.. instead of using the term god, i'll use "unseen presence".. this unseen presence, is perfect in every way.

this presence is so perfect it can seem a bit boring.this perfection can be seen in the laws of science, for example gravity.. it does not sometimes work, depending on the mood of some one in the sky, it always works, perfectly.

gravity does not get angry and decide to stop working, and cause the death of innumerable living beings, it just works, through thick or thin, it is reliable.. what allows this unseen presence to remain perfect, is the fact that it does not act based on emotion, or strategy or regret.. it acts based on law, mathematical law.. this unseen presence is not partial to jews or muslims or jw's it is completely impartial at all times, to everything that exists.

OneEyedJoe

The point being made about hitler, and psychopaths in general, is that we can literally see inside their brains. It's called an MRI. There are structures that are missing in psychopaths that cause them to be unable to feel guilt or remorse.

68

My Explanation of God.

by LAWHFol in

i am a theist & this is my version of god.. instead of using the term god, i'll use "unseen presence".. this unseen presence, is perfect in every way.

this presence is so perfect it can seem a bit boring.this perfection can be seen in the laws of science, for example gravity.. it does not sometimes work, depending on the mood of some one in the sky, it always works, perfectly.

gravity does not get angry and decide to stop working, and cause the death of innumerable living beings, it just works, through thick or thin, it is reliable.. what allows this unseen presence to remain perfect, is the fact that it does not act based on emotion, or strategy or regret.. it acts based on law, mathematical law.. this unseen presence is not partial to jews or muslims or jw's it is completely impartial at all times, to everything that exists.

OneEyedJoe

I don't Believe in God, because I fear being punished for not Believing. I believe in "God" because I do not see the rational in Order coming from Disorder.
i'm more concerned with discovering solutions, to Unite this community, and get past the "My camp" Vs. "Your Camp" mentality.

Look around. on a universal level, there is no order coming from disorder. That's what the second law of thermodynamics is all about. People often assert that abiogenesis violates this law, but forget that the sun is constantly supplying the entropy needed to temporarily offset the increased order that is found on earth.

There are laws of physics, but no evidence for any consciousness tied to them. What's the point in calling something a god if it's nothing more than an invisible rule of nature? I wonder if maybe you're in denial of your atheism because you're scared of becoming a nihilist.

68

My Explanation of God.

by LAWHFol in

i am a theist & this is my version of god.. instead of using the term god, i'll use "unseen presence".. this unseen presence, is perfect in every way.

this presence is so perfect it can seem a bit boring.this perfection can be seen in the laws of science, for example gravity.. it does not sometimes work, depending on the mood of some one in the sky, it always works, perfectly.

gravity does not get angry and decide to stop working, and cause the death of innumerable living beings, it just works, through thick or thin, it is reliable.. what allows this unseen presence to remain perfect, is the fact that it does not act based on emotion, or strategy or regret.. it acts based on law, mathematical law.. this unseen presence is not partial to jews or muslims or jw's it is completely impartial at all times, to everything that exists.

OneEyedJoe

It seems like you realize that there's no point in believing in god, but are trying really hard not to be an atheist.