Time will tell.
As far as the math...there is no real-world math. Watchtower uses numbers as a "theocratic strategy". As a past Cong Secretary, Watchtower did not count as "members" those who didn't report ONE full hour, and "low hour" publishers (under 6) got shepherding calls and didn't get "privileges" or Service meeting parts. However, every irregular or recently "inactive" publisher I knew would have considered themselves a full-fledged JW if polled in a census or interviewed by PEW. The "new light" simply makes it easier for Watchtower to show less shrinkage.
After the 1975 debacle, Knorr's death, Fred Franz's blindness, the Ray Franz debacle at Bethel, and the Time Magazine story, Ted Jaracz became a huge influence on the GB. He instituted APOSTATE WITCHHUNTS and pushed the "sin" label and two Witness rule for child molesters. He also pushed for less/no "unofficial" JW gatherings, less humor at meetings, and no Cong picnics! To me, it was like the Spanish Inquisition.
No one calls the elders when they have a FIRE they dial 911 or the Fire Department. Watchtower should simply tell elders to treat all crimes the same. STAY OUT OF ALL CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS and the $$ liability attached to them. Unless a JW is preaching "apostasy"... Publicly...just stay out of it. Stop the inquisitions. Save Disfellowshipping for serious stuff that threatens members or brings public dishonor to the church, LIKE RAPE, and domestic violence...(which they currently hide).