Thank you for the info Newborn! I clicked your link and found the story. I hadn't seen this yet
ohiocowboy
JoinedPosts by ohiocowboy
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16
Anybody keeping up with the violence in Iran?
by ohiocowboy init is heartbreaking to see the violence going on in iran.
our news isn't really reporting on it, but it is huge news.
many deaths going on, the iran government is trying to suppress information, and people are being arrested and killed for wanting democracy.. here is one of many twitters on the violence;.
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ohiocowboy
Here is a brief synopsis of what's going on by someone in Iran...
http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4452999
As of 18PM on the East Coast, all twitter posts about the army being involved are false. Warning, new twitter feeds are most likely government members trying to spread misinformation, ignore them! Also, there is a handful of good twitter feeds, but please do not publicize their usernames, they are in enough danger as it is and they don't need more publiclity. Those in the know will c/p their entries. Major timeline overhaul, including what has unfolded in the last few hours.
This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it in every threads with some adjustments. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future.
Suppression of Dissent - The Players
Currently, there are either two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:
1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)
- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.
They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.
- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.
- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.
(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.
What will happen
Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).
Currently, this is what is happening.
Timeline (updated and revamped!)
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.
14th of June - While the previous day had been witness to some protests, they were for the most part peaceful. However, as time grew the protests turned more and more violent. When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave of violence was unleashed. The Iranian Riot Police was called in to support the regular police officers controlling the protests, and shortly after the Basij also took the scene, moving from a passive to active role of repression. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.
- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij. The repressive forces concentrated their assault mostly around the main Iranian universities, while the riot police were concentrating on protecting various government buildings such as the Interior Ministry. At least two people had been killed already.
- On the telecommunication front, this is when we started to hear more and more from twitters while videos were being freely updated to youtube (while youtube started to delete the more violent ones a few hours later). This is also the moment where the government realized what was happening, and ordered for the internet, phone lines and cellphones to be cut off, in order to avoid people communicating with the outside world.
late 14th, early 15th of June - This is the second wave of violent repression. At this point, violent riots had spread all over the main cities of Iran. The violence against citizens was not only the fruit of the Basij anymore, but also came from Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There were reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms. It's also around the same time that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods), which led to many speculating that lebanese Hizbullah members were now in Iran. Der Spiegel, through Voice of America, later claimed that 5000 Hizbullah fighters were passing off as Riot Police, validating the claims of many independent sources and twitter feeds.
- Universities have been the hotbed of protests, serving as a hub of anti-government demonstrations and preparations. 120 teachers from the Sharid University resigned in protest over the election results. Perfectly away of this, the Basij, Ansar and possibly Hizbullah members concentrated their attacks on University Dorms all over the country, storming them and beating students, destroying everything, especially computers.
- The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader authorized the plainclothes militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things were to get out of hands. By the end of the first two waves of protests, hundreds of people had been arrested.
midday, 15th of June - This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. Plainclothes militia opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Possibly up to 2 million protesters took the street. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran as the news circulated. Pictures of people shot, some to death, finally surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people had been killed at this by the end of the 15th of June.
- There is a major national crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.
- Eventually, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground.
- During the night, the police entered certain neighbourhood to arrest public servants and force them to appear at tomorrow's pro-Ahmadinejad manifestation, but the people went out in the street and forced them out of their neighbourhoods. The Basij have kept on storming dorms. So far the reports are conflicting, but it appears that the death toll could be as high as 40 for the protesters, with two dead on the side of the repressive militias. This is the end of the third wave.
early 16th of June - Supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. People are dressed in black and told to protest silently.
- The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Rumours are that they are taking position in buildings next to the parade and in bunkers to attack. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country. A major showdown is expected to unfold.
- The crackdown on people using telecommunication is as strong as ever. Anyone with a laptop, camera or cellphone is attacked in the street by plainclothes militias. Tehran hotels are under lockdown to prevent the members of the foreign press not yet expulsed from reporting what is happening.
- As for the Iranian Government and different branches, there are rumours that many Army Generals have been arrested for plotting a Coup d'État, but this is still speculation at this point. The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. Moussavi and his supporters have rejected this, claiming that they want new elections. Khameini is now using the armed Basij as his own bodyguards, hundreds of them are surround him and his residence to protect from attempted assassinations. Ahmadinejad himself is in Russia right now, for a planned visit, and tries to pretend that everything is good as usual.
midday 16th of June to early 17th of June - The fourth wave of violence has started, and was expected to flare up very soon. It surprisingly was quite mild. Pro-Moussavi supporters said that there were even more people today protesting against the regime, though raw numbers are hard to get. If this is true, it means there are more than 2M protesters in the street right now. They are dressed in black and protesting silently and without violence so far. Other reports that only 250,000 were in the street, possibly scared by the Basij and propaganda.
- The Basij, surprisingly, did not attacking the march itself but rather assaulted dorms again. It looks like they are using the march as a diversion. In Tehran proper, 2000 Basij are waiting to storm the male dorm, and they are backed by IRG helicopters, which seems to send the message that the IRG has broken from their undeclared neutrality toward tacitely supporting the Regime.
- The crackdown on telecommunications is starting to suffocate all of Iran. As of now:
* Gmail and GTalk are shut down
* Yahoo is shut down
* AIM is most likely shut down
* Phone lines are down
* HTTPS and other such protocols are down
* Iranian ISPs have been shut down
* They are trying very hard to close down the Iranian connexion to twitter and giving proxies they control in order to track down people
* Cellphones and SMS are shut down
People are also receiving phone calls from the government saying "We know you were in the protests".
Night fell on Iran, and the Basij were roaming, attacking passerbys at random. They had also surrounded dorms and stormed them once again.
morning of the 17th of June - With the end of the fourth wave of violence, we are currently in a wait and see mode. As of right now, there are many rumors involving clerics, Ayatollahs and the Army plotting to overthrow the government, semi-confirmations from credible twitterers, but nothing concrete so far. These would be extremely big development, so it's better to treat them with caution.
The revolution lives on. Long live the revolution!
Demands from the protesters
1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.
Who is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri?
Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point on the short list of possible successors of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.
Since the beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime, and one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.
He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.
He has also come out with a statement saying that policemen who beat on protesters and follow orders will not be forgiven under Islam, and that even if the government cuts the lines of communication with the outside world, that it was too late and the truth was getting out
Links
For further information on the Basij, Global Security has a good article about the history of the Basij.
CNN has a good article where eyewitnesses describe the type of violence usually unleashed by the Basij.
Here is another good article from GS again giving more background information on the ruthless Ansar thugs.
BBC profile of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri
important: The Iranian government is looking for dissident twitterers, so if you have an account, change your location and timezone to tehran!
regarding the supposed numbers received by all three candidates giving Moussavi the winner and Ahmadinejad third with 7M votes: The only confirmation is an Iranian journalist. We don't have any external data confirming those numbers. 7M for Ahmadinejad seems quite low, so treat this as an unsubstantiated rumour for the moment -
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Anybody keeping up with the violence in Iran?
by ohiocowboy init is heartbreaking to see the violence going on in iran.
our news isn't really reporting on it, but it is huge news.
many deaths going on, the iran government is trying to suppress information, and people are being arrested and killed for wanting democracy.. here is one of many twitters on the violence;.
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ohiocowboy
That is so sad. Thanks for posting that story. Sad thing is that it is not an isolated incident, I am sure there are many many more heartbreaking stories.
Indoctrinating 13 and 14 y/o to hurt people. That is LOW
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Anybody keeping up with the violence in Iran?
by ohiocowboy init is heartbreaking to see the violence going on in iran.
our news isn't really reporting on it, but it is huge news.
many deaths going on, the iran government is trying to suppress information, and people are being arrested and killed for wanting democracy.. here is one of many twitters on the violence;.
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ohiocowboy
Thanks Purps for the comment!
The Iranian Gov't. is trying to suppress info. and are arresting people in Iran for posting blogs, etc. The Gov't has even infiltrated twitter and other communications trying to confuse people by posting fake news.
I hope the violence ends soon, before there is more loss of life.
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Anybody keeping up with the violence in Iran?
by ohiocowboy init is heartbreaking to see the violence going on in iran.
our news isn't really reporting on it, but it is huge news.
many deaths going on, the iran government is trying to suppress information, and people are being arrested and killed for wanting democracy.. here is one of many twitters on the violence;.
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ohiocowboy
It is heartbreaking to see the violence going on in Iran. Our news isn't really reporting on it, but it is huge news. Many deaths going on, the Iran Government is trying to suppress information, and people are being arrested and killed for wanting democracy.
Here is one of many twitters on the violence;
Here are some photos-some graphic so be careful;
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fhashemi/
And here is just one of hundreds of youtubes of the violence, once again there are graphic things in here so be careful;
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fhashemi/
It is horrible over there right now, any prayers or good energy for those people I am sure would be appreciated.
I am soooooo sad about this.
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New name for those who have left?
by dogisgod inhey guys, havent been here for a while but have you heard that the society is now calling those who leave "the walking dead"?
i just heard this acouple of days ago but since my mom died i don't have a direct conduit anymore.
sorry if this has already been discussed.
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ohiocowboy
That is so crude that the JW's would come up with something like that. It wouldn't surprise me in the least though. The way a lot of them talk, it is almost as if they are looking forward to us being destroyed (actually they are), especially in the worst, twisted, evil ways possible. To delight in anothers death, let alone several Billion deaths, shows truly warped minds. Remember being out in Service and people would talk about who's house they want after the big A? Bad thing is, I was guilty of it too. Maybe that is why I try to show more compassion to others who look like they need help.
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Goodbye.
by Preston ini haven't posted regularly on this site in quite some time, but i just wanted to say to those i have known over the years how much i've appreciated your kindness and your advice.
my health has deteriorated over the past year i've been struggling with being ill. i have a heart defect that has made it hard for me to function and to work.
i feel its important to enjoy my life right now and spend less of it in the virtual world, and because of this i will no longer be posting.. thank you simon for allowing me to post to your site since 2001. this is my last post here and i have posted a similar note to another site.. i love all of you more than anything else in the world.. my email is tarkovskyfan at gmail dot com and if you want to keep in touch you may email me and i will respond.. p.s.
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ohiocowboy
I am so sad to hear about your health. I'm not really one to pray, but in this case I will, and I will definately concentrate on sending some positive, healing energy. I hope there is some chance of you getting better.
You know what? I still think about that time I got the vanload of us lost in the rain heading to FT. Worth! I'm glad we finally ended up at our destination-(I consider it a miracle), but you know what? I had kust as much fun being with everyone in the van.
Please take care of yourself, avoid Stress, eat well and try to enjoy life as best you can.
Remember that you are loved!
CJ
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What would it take for you to conclude that the WBTS is not God's channel?
by Mickey mouse ini wondered if you could answer this question for me?
you seem to be fine with the fact that they are false prophets, that they have changed the bible and that they have entered into an agreement to "uphold the aims of the un".. what is the deal breaker for you?.
i suspect that there isn't one, and that is not a reasonable position.. please tell me there is something they could do that would make you question their legitamacy?.
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ohiocowboy
I try to be empathetic towards people such as Reniaa because I used to be like her by defending the Org. tooth and nail, as many of us here also did. A lot of us used to be in her shoes. Eventually some people come around and start realizing that the "truth" really isn't. If Reniaa never leaves the org. all I can do is feel sorry for her, it doesn't mean I need to show animosity towards her. It's ultimately her decision whether she stays in the Org or not. Likewise, she should not condemn our decision to have left.
I think the saying "You catch more flies with honey than you do vinegar" holds true, and can mean the difference of someone leaving or else running back to the Org. I think that being nice and non-confrontational during a debate with another can influence them more readily to consider differing thoughts.
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Be prepared for a Good cry...
by ohiocowboy inwatch the video.
my eyes are still watery.
happy tears.
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ohiocowboy
Thanks for the comments! I couldn't imagine being away from a loved one for a year. Even days and weeks can be hard to deal with. I am happy for that little girl and her family that her Dad made it home. My heart goes out to those who aren't as fortunate.
Rocky_Girl, I am glad your Husband made it home OK, and that your family is complete again!!!
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ohiocowboy
I've been shunned in a car,
I've been shunned in a Bar,
I've been shunned on the street,
I've been shunned buying meat,
I've been shunned at the store,
I've been shunned on the shore,
I've been shunned on a plane,
I've been shunned on my lane,
I've been shunned on a bus,
and haven't made a fuss.
I've been shunned on a yacht,
See, I get shunned quite a lot.
Everywhere I run,
those Jw's shun,
It's no wonder I can't have any fun!